The six-by-six negotiators will continue to try and work out some kind of deal that will short circuit the nuclear option. But let’s say it doesn’t work out and the matter comes to the floor tomorrow for a vote. How’s this going to play out? Harry Reid says he’s “cautiously optimistic,” while Mitch McConnell answered “yes” yesterday when asked on Face the Nation whether he has the votes.
So, let’s take a look at the latest word from the senators who haven’t publicly announced their position.
* Arlen Specter — Specter not only hasn’t announced how he’ll vote, he literally hasn’t told anyone yet, including Frist and his staff. Dems believe Frist and others may try and remove Specter’s committee chairmanship as punishment for voting the “wrong” way on the nuclear option, so Harry Reid has consulted with the Senate parliamentarian and told Specter that — you guessed it — Dems will filibuster any attempt to remove Specter’s gavel. As a side note, many on the Hill seem to believe that Specter, who is battling Hodgkin’s disease, will not run for re-election at the end of his term in 2010, suggesting that he’s less susceptible to party pressure.
* John Warner — The NYT’s David Brooks had a column over the weekend listing Warner, the senior senator from Virginia, as one of the Republican senators who “will vote against the nuclear option.” Of course, Brooks isn’t particularly reliable, so don’t take that one to the bank. Warner seems to be the least predictable member of the chamber on this issue. He’s said he sees unlimited debate as a “hallmark of the Senate,” but he also added that he “strongly opposes” judicial filibusters. He’s clearly uncomfortable with the nuclear option — he’s helping to spearhead negotiations to avoid it — but that doesn’t mean he’ll vote against it.
* Susan Collins — Roll Call reported this morning that “Republicans have privately suspected that Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a moderate who has been actively engaged in the centrist talks, would join her home-state colleague Snowe in opposing” the nuclear option. If so, Reid has four of the six votes he’ll need.
* Mike DeWine — Ohio’s DeWine hasn’t been on everyone’s vote-count watchlist, but he attended a six-by-six negotiation meeting last week and later said he believes filibusters on judicial nominees are an option that should be left open. “We should have that option in very extreme case,” DeWine said. Asked how he could vote to abolish filibusters when he believes they are proper in rare circumstances, DeWine said, “I’m trying to avoid two bad alternatives.”
* Chuck Hagel — Activists on both sides still consider Hagel a toss-up, recent comments not withstanding. Interestingly, though he has expressed reservations about the nuclear option, Hagel refused to participate in McCain’s negotiation discussions, dismissing the very idea as “unfair.”
* Lindsey Graham — Graham was expected to fall in line behind Frist, but he’s not there quite yet. Graham’s participated in all of the six-by-six discussions and has not yet taken a firm stand on how he’ll vote tomorrow. James Dobson’s Focus on the Family appears be very worried about how Graham will vote, lashing out at the South Carolinian in an alert to Focus members late last week.
In one interesting twist, Reid told some regional reporters late last week that he had received a “private commitment” from a fourth Republican to oppose the nuclear option, whom he would not identify by name. Was he referring to Collins, or someone unexpected?
Just a reminder, unless an unexpected compromise is reached tonight or early tomorrow, Reid needs six Republican votes to win and beat back the nuclear option. John McCain, Linc Chafee, and Olympia Snowe are on board, and Collins sounds like she’ll vote against it. Dems will therefore need two out of Specter, Warner, DeWine, Hagel, and Graham.
My prediction: Dems win, 51-49. Feel free to add your prediction in the comments section.