I suppose this landscape could be worse for Republicans, but I don’t see how.
Americans are more dissatisfied with the country’s direction than at any time since the New York Times/CBS News poll began asking about the subject in the early 1990s, according to the latest poll.
In the poll, 81 percent of respondents said they believed “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track,” up from 69 percent a year ago and 35 percent in early 2002.
Although the public mood has been darkening since the early days of the war in Iraq, it has taken a new turn for the worse in the last few months, as the economy has seemed to slip into recession. There is now nearly a national consensus that the country faces significant problems.
A majority of nearly every demographic and political group — Democrats and Republicans, men and women, residents of cities and rural areas, college graduates and those who finished only high school — say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. Seventy-eight percent of respondents said the country was worse off than five years ago; just 4 percent said it was better off.
It’s probably not the ideal time for John McCain to run on a more-of-the-same presidential platform.
In terms of the presidential campaign, Barack Obama still holds a narrow edge over Hillary Clinton among Dems nationwide, 46% to 43%. In general-election match-ups, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain by five percentage points.
A closer look at the numbers points to additional good news for Obama, but I was even more impressed by the public support for the Democratic agenda in general.
On Obama, the controversy surrounding his former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, still hasn’t done much to undermine his campaign, and nearly three-in-five white voters said the story has had no effect on their opinions of the senator. Perhaps more importantly, Obama is seen by Dems as a stronger general-election candidate than Clinton, 56% to 32%.
The numbers weren’t all good for Obama. His favorability rating is lower than it was in February, and his lead among men has also shrunk. That said, the Obama campaign still has to be thrilled with results like these.
On favorable vs. unfavorable ratings, Obama has the biggest net positive of all three candidates — 19%. Clinton has a net negative 1%.
On “shares the values of Americans”, it’s Obama (70%-21%), McCain (66%-27%), Clinton (60%-34%). But the numbers are fairly close.
But the really important part of the poll was how Americans perceive the liberal policy agenda in general. Jonathan Cohn explained:
If you think that the solutions to most of these problems necessarily involve creating new government programs or strengthening existing ones–in other words, if you’re a liberal like me — probably the most encouraging finding is the response to this question: “Would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?” Forty-three percent say “bigger” — the exact same percentage that says “smaller.” Not since late 1991 — when, apparently, the Times first began asking the question — did the public express such favorable attitudes towards government. […]
So what’s the political lesson here? On the merits, the case for more aggressive regulation and a stronger safety net — not just in health care, but also banking, pensions, and other areas — has never been stronger. And the insecurity evident in this poll suggests people are becoming more open to these sorts of initiatives — more, certainly, than they have been in a long time.
Quite right. I’d just add that 58% of Americans (pdf) said they would also support raising taxes on households making more than $250,000 — just as Clinton and Obama have proposed.
Obviously, the election is seven months away, and public opinion can and will change. But it appears that Americans are desperate for change, believe the country is on the wrong track, prefer Democratic ideas, and prefer Democratic candidates.