The notion of an “enthusiasm gap” between Democrats and Republicans this year is not new. In fact, it’s been a staple of the political landscape for most of the year. Democratic voters were excited about their presidential choices; Republicans kept wondering if someone new might throw their hat into the ring. Democratic turnout broke records; Republican turnout was average.
The phenomenon was not limited to the nominating fights. A couple of weeks ago, an NBC/WSJ poll found that most of Obama’s supporters are motivated by their support for him. Fewer than 40% of McCain voters could say the same. The Journal’s pollster noted, “It is not that these voters aren’t for McCain.” What’s lacking is “the enthusiasm, the passion, the energy” of the other side.
The problem for the GOP persists.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll has Obama leading McCain among likely voters by six points, 50%-44%.
But the most revealing numbers in the survey were the ones measuring voter enthusiasm: 61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.
Various intangibles — Bush’s record unpopularity, a struggling economy, dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, a strong desire for change — make McCain’s task difficult. But if voters inclined to support him aren’t especially engaged, and aren’t particularly excited about the campaign, it makes his campaign’s task all the more challenging.
What’s more, it’s not just the horserace. The “enthusiasm gap” is manifesting itself in a variety of ways right now.
* Dems are just more excited about voting in general this year.
Sixty-three percent of Democrats questioned say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year. Only 37 percent of Republicans feel the same way, and 36 percent of Republicans say they are not enthusiastic about voting.
“Republicans are far less enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are, and enthusiasm has plummeted among GOPers since the start of the year,” said Keating Holland, CNN polling director. “There was already an ‘enthusiasm gap’ in January, when Democrats were 11 points higher than GOPers on this measure. Now, that gap has grown to 26 points.”
* Organizers of the Democratic National Convention have more volunteers than they know what to do with. Organizers of the Republican National Convention are still hoping to find folks willing to sign up.
* McCain isn’t even enthusiastic about his VP choices. The four people he really likes — Joe Lieberman, Tom Ridge, Jeb Bush, and Mel Martinez — aren’t going to work, and he knows it. Indeed, Martinez, born in Cuba, isn’t even constitutionally eligible.
* As recently as two weeks ago, a national poll showed that only 52% of Republican primary voters were satisfied with McCain as their nominee, with 45% preferring someone else. That, of course, came more than three months after McCain had already secured the GOP nomination and got to work mending intra-party fences.
Now, I should note that the landscape can change. Parties generally become more enthusiastic after their conventions, which are still a couple of months off. If Obama makes a couple more moves like the one from last week on the FISA “compromise,” Democratic enthusiasm in general may wane. McCain isn’t generating excitement because his campaign isn’t firing on all cylinders, but he and his team have time to get on track.
Having said that, at this point, the “enthusiasm gap” has the potential to be the deciding factor. McCain could, of course, boost GOP enthusiasm by running even further to the right, but it would drive the rest of the electorate right into Obama’s waiting arms.
It’s a conundrum, isn’t it?