Most of the political world expected Barack Obama to have a good day yesterday, when Democrats in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia went to the polls. But it’s fair to say that few expected him to do this well.
With just about all the precincts reporting from all three contests, the final results look like this:
Virginia: Obama 64%, Clinton 35%
Maryland: Obama 59%, Clinton 37%
D.C.: Obama 75%, Clinton 24%
Oddly enough, going into yesterday’s contests, word from the Clinton campaign was that Virginia may surprise people. That turned out to be true — it was a surprise that the margin of Obama’s landslide victory was nearly 30 points.
The closer one looks at the results, the harder they are for Clinton supporters to spin. Obama won a majority of whites, African Americans, and Latinos; and men and women. In Virginia, he carried “every single educational and income category by a hefty margin.” (He did the same in Maryland, except for the very wealthy, who narrowly backed Clinton.) Virginia was so one-sided that Obama had more votes than all of the Republican candidates combined — and had more votes than Clinton and McCain combined. All of the Democratic constituencies that have been backing Clinton over the last six weeks reversed course yesterday and went with Obama.
“Certainly he broadened his coalition,” one Democratic pollster said. “The question is whether that’s a one-state phenomenon or a broader phenomenon, because it definitely changes the landscape.”
Of course, as we all know by now, the race for the nomination isn’t a state-by-state contest; it’s a race for delegates. Unfortunately for Clinton, that’s where the bad news gets worse.
Ben Smith explained:
…Obama’s lead in pledged delegates widened Tuesday night to more than 100, even by conservative estimates, and there’s no indication that it will narrow before March.
There are 573 delegates up for grabs between March 4 and April 22. For Clinton to even things up, she needs to get 345 of those 573 delegates, or 60 percent — the sort of margin she won in her home state of New York.
Obama’s dramatic victories Tuesday also put him ahead in the count of pledged delegates even if Florida, whose delegates have not been recognized by the Democratic National Committee, was permitted to seat a delegation.
And his victories put him ahead even in counts that include superdelegates.
What’s more, Newsweek’s Howard Fineman made a claim, which I have not yet seen verified elsewhere, that was especially surprising: “He said he based his comments on conversations with people in both campaigns. And the gist of it was that both sides agree that it’s highly unlikely that Clinton can end up with more pledged delegates than Barack Obama. And the issue now is how close she can keep the margin.”
So, does this make Obama the frontrunner? It’s been the subject of ample speculation the last few days, and there’s still some difference of opinion on the subject, but it seems increasingly difficult to argue otherwise. He’s won more states, and more delegates. He has more money. If momentum exists in this race, he has more of it than he knows what to do with. He’s won all of the post-Super Tuesday contests, and he’s poised to win a couple more.
Put it this way: if you were going to place a bet on who would win the nomination given the current landscape, who would you bet on? This isn’t to say it’s over — Clinton is too strong a candidate and this race may still take some twists and turns — but Obama has been discouraging talk of him being the frontrunner, preferring to run as the underdog. Given yesterday’s landslides, he’ll probably have to accept the frontrunner label, whether he wants it or not.