Of push polls and haircuts

Greg Sargent had an interesting report yesterday afternoon about Mark Penn, the pollster for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, and a message-testing poll he has in the field right now.

The story started when Jason Eness-Potter, an Iowa resident, said he received a call from Penn’s polling firm. Greg followed up with him about the questions on the survey, which began with generic inquiries — candidate preferences, opinion of Bush — but quickly veered into negative questions about Clinton’s rivals.

According to Eness-Potter, the interviewer hit him with a negative line about Obama’s Iraq stance. “It was, `He claims to promise an end to the Iraq War, yet after making these statements he voted to continue the war,'” Eness-Potter summarized. This apparently is a reference to Iraq war supplementals Obama supported. A second negative line dealt with Obama’s inexperience. “He says he’ll bring new energy, but he’s only served in the Senate for two years,” Eness-Potter summarized.

On Edwards, he says, the first question was on the $400 haircut. He quoted it as follows: “John Edwards proudly promotes himself as a champion of the poor, and yet he went and got a $400 haircut,” before continuing with the customary refrain of whether that made the respondent more or less likely to approve of Edwards.

Now, I’ve seen quite a bit of criticism of this, with several people calling this a “push poll.” I don’t think that’s right. A push poll is generally understood to be a fake poll — a campaign wants to get a message out, so they call voters pretending to be conducting a poll, when in fact it’s just delivering an attack.

From what I can tell, this wasn’t a push poll; it was a message-testing poll. The campaign wants to know what kinds of criticisms are effective, so they’re asking people what they think of various issues. To accuse the Clinton team of engaging in push polling is to accuse them of using an underhanded, unethical attack. Given what we know, that’s probably unfair in this case.

But that doesn’t mean the poll was entirely kosher, either.

What the poll tells us is where the Clinton campaign is prepared to go, if necessary. The senator has been consistent about not going negative on her campaign rivals, which is good. But she’s also polling about John Edwards’ expensive haircut, which is not good.

Put it this way: why test a message about Edwards’ haircut in the first place? The results will show whether voters actually care about the issue, but so what? This isn’t a road that Democratic candidates should be prepared to go down anyway, so there’s no reason to even put the poll question in the field.

Realistically, are Edwards and Obama message-testing through polling? Probably. Are they measuring responses on anti-Clinton criticisms? Probably. Is all of this just a necessarily evil of modern presidential campaigning in a competitive primary? Sure.

But a) Clinton has derided this style of politicking; and b) she got caught.

How can you tell that this is an embarrassment for the Clinton campaign? Some of the best communications/media professionals in the Democratic Party work for this campaign, and for 24 hours, they’ve had no comment on this story. Sometimes silence says quite a bit.

It will probably be a wasted vote here in NYS, but I cannot see myself voting for Hillary in the primary. Obviously, an attack on expensive haircuts isn’t all that important, in the grand scheme of things. But it sure isn’t send me running over to her camp.

  • …it was a message-testing poll.

    CB, that’s sounds somewhat like a used vacuum-cleaner salesman.

    Hillary’s “message-testing poll” is straight out of the ReThug playbook. Some kind of leadership.

    Hey Hillary, how about a “message-testing poll” on impeaching “Dick” Cheney?

  • Seriously, what is the deal with overzealous campaigns who think the only way to sell their candidate is to smear their opponents? Don’t they realize that, especially in a Democratic primary, that’s campaigning from a position of weakness? I’d like to think Democratic primary voters are smart enough to realize that the campaigns who resort to smearing no longer have anything exceptional about their candidate to tell us. It’s like telling us, “you really don’t want to vote for our candidate.”

  • There are plenty of reasonable anti-Edwards approaches she could have been testing. That someone in the Clinton organization thought it was worth testing a message that is straight out of the Republican noise machine, that trivializes and personalizes instead of fighting about real issues, is very disappointing.

  • It sorta makes one wonder if Hillary is playing at being the Dems’ “Rampstrike.” She rejects a tactic, then gets caught using it, and now her all-star staff gets a corporate case of laryngitis.

    Doing the right thing would have been to come out with a statement within the first few hours of this thing being outed. Either she’s dead-set against the practice, and summarily throws Penn under the bus, or she takes a serious credibility hit, and starts earning a major flip-flop trophy long before the primaries.

    How long until RedState starts calling her high-road/low-road antics “Hill-and-Dale?”

  • I voted for Bill Clinton basically out of oppisiton to King George the 1st. That and the fact that Perot turned out to be a paranoid (although now that republicans have been exposed for what they truly are, maybe they actually were spying on his daughter’s wedding…?). I have always been a democrat however, and most certainly will vote democratic in future elections unless a true third political party emerges.

    Having said that, I will NOT vote for Hillary. To nominate her will most definately turn a slam dunk democratic win in ’08 into a a possible republican victory because there is no other public figure out there today that rallies the right wing nutcases like her. Using a a gunfight as an analogy, right now the democrats are looking at the republicans down the barrel of a .44, and all the republicans have to fire back is a pea shooter. To nominate Hillary would be akin to arming the enemy with equal or better guns.

    Also, Hillary is in now way progressive other than the fact that she is a woman and favors women’s rights moreso than most. She is just as tied to the corportacracy as any other republican sleazeball out there.

  • Hillary will do or say anything to get elected. That’s her bottom line and why she is at the bottom of my list for Democratic voting preferences.

  • We should ask what the poll result on the haircut question tell us. The answer: nothing.

    Even a die-hard Edwards supporter who thought it was all irrelevent couldn’t truthfully claim that getting a $400 haircut made him more likely to support Edwards. Since the result is largely meaningless, it is either a very poor message testing poll or a push poll.

  • Seriously, what is the deal with overzealous campaigns who think the only way to sell their candidate is to smear their opponents? Don’t they realize that, especially in a Democratic primary, that’s campaigning from a position of weakness? I’d like to think Democratic primary voters are smart enough to realize that the campaigns who resort to smearing no longer have anything exceptional about their candidate to tell us. It’s like telling us, “you really don’t want to vote for our candidate.”

    Comment by Rian Mueller

    Maybe I’m just a jaded, cynical former campaign worker, but I both agree with Rian’s setup and disagree with what I believe is his conclusion.

    I remain undecided on the primary, and likely will not vote Hillary, so this is not based on a bias, but it seems to me at least testing and being ready on negative messages is pragmatically smart on Clinton’s part.

    Here is the reality: polling shows exactly what Rian suggests. Team Clinton has already told people how exceptional Hillary is — and according to the polls, they believe it. She gets the highest marks for preparedness, experience, ready to be President, etc. Nonetheless, they still don’t want to vote for her – her negatives are higher than anyone else in the race.

    So if people like your resume but like your competitors more as a person, what are your options? You aren’t likely to change their view of you as a person very easily. You (a) want to keep your opponents from being able to catch up with you on promoting their own resumes and (b) you have to close the likability gap — not by raisingyours, but by lowering theirs.

    Ugly, cheap, demeaning of democracy, anti-progressive, blah blah blah? Of course.
    A simple staple of electoral math and strategy literally since the beginning of the republic, unlikely to change no matter how pure and intellectual we wish the system would be?
    Yep.

    Assuming, as CB does, that this was legit message testing and not a pure pretext to smear, I find it a little hard to argue with.

  • I’m not sure why Senator Clinton would rationally want to open a debate about who supported the war more in the past with Obama or begin a haircut spending contest with Edwards.

    She’s got several votes vested in this waste of a war and I doubt I’ll ever run into her at Great Clips.

    I’m sure any day now she’ll announce the kettle as her running mate.

  • push poll
    –noun a seemingly unbiased telephone survey that is actually conducted by supporters of a particular candidate and disseminates negative information about an opponent.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [Origin: 1990–95]
    Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)
    Based on the Random House Unabridged Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2006.
    Webster’s New Millennium™ Dictionary of English – Cite This Source Main Entry: push poll
    Part of Speech: n
    Definition: an opinion poll done with loaded questions or offering negative information to sway the opinions of those polled
    Usage: push-polling n

    Webster’s New Millennium™ Dictionary of English, Preview Edition (v 0.9.7)
    Copyright © 2003-2007 Lexico Publishing Group, LLC

    No requirement that the pollers keep or use the data.
    Hil did a push poll.
    I’m among the least surprised.

  • All 3 lines sound like something you would see on Lou Dobbs’ program, questions designed to get a 90+% response on one side. Sounds like a push poll to me.

  • Beacause it’s not a fake poll, it isn’t an underhanded, unethical attack? Are you sure? So you’re saying is that push pollers only need to write down the answers they get and put it together in a poll to legitimate what they’re doing?

    Or are you saying that right now, they’re not actually concerned with converting these people with an underhanded, unethical message — they’re just testing to find out which underhanded, unethical message is most effective.

    Then later, the day before a primary, they can use this information, to put out that tested-for-effectiveness underhanded, unethical message.

    Am I missing something here?

  • I have no problem with the candidates doing this. In fact, I would worry more if they weren’t running a competent campaign.

  • Comments are closed.