I’ve heard that all politics is local, but I’m usually skeptical about how far up a ballot local troubles can go. In New Jersey, for example, Gov. McGreevey’s (D) troubles don’t appear to be having any effect on the presidential race. Indeed, a new poll shows Kerry’s lead growing in the state. In Alabama, Gov. Riley (R) has seen his popularity plummet, but Alabama is even less competitive at the presidential level than Texas.
That said, Republican troubles in Ohio may be far more problematic for Bush. In this case, as Tom Schaller noted, it’s not just one elected official with low approval ratings; it’s the entire state party apparatus that appears corrupt and incompetent.
Some Ohio Republicans worry that [Brett] Buerck’s and [Kyle] Sisk’s [two consultants to Republican state House Speaker Larry Householder] influence on the 2004 election may be more consequential. Ordinarily, this state’s GOP, which has held a virtual lock on power since 1990, would be a clear asset for the president. He could take advantage of the party’s grass-roots organization, official surrogates and goodwill with the electorate. But a host of local controversies have scuffed the Republican brand name in Ohio. The most malodorous of these involves allegations of improper fundraising and self-dealing by the two consultants to Republican state House Speaker Larry Householder.
The accusations erupted onto Ohio front pages in the spring, and federal and state criminal investigations are underway. Ohioans have been treated to regular servings of leaked strategy memos and e-mails written by Buerck, Sisk and others in Householder’s camp. With a swaggering tone, the documents suggest an approach to politics that borrows equally from H.R. Haldeman and Barney Fife.
They also have turned Buerck and Sisk into symbols for a season of furrowed brows and angry words within the Ohio GOP, which is in turmoil on numerous other fronts. All this is a burden that Bush, running slightly behind in polls in this critical swing state, surely would prefer not to carry.
To be fair, Bush doesn’t have any direct relationship to the GOP scandals in Ohio (at least that we know of). However, as J. Kenneth Blackwell, the Republican secretary of state, acknowledged, “When people don’t feel passionate that Republicans can and will make a difference, that makes the president’s job that much more difficult.”
At this point, the party doesn’t have much of a pitch. The state’s Republican governor, Bob Taft, has seen his popularity fall in the wake of a poor economy and higher sales taxes, so he’s of little value to Bush. And with the House Republican caucus mired in a kickback scandal, BC04 certainly won’t be looking to state officials for a boost.
There’s little proof that voters in Ohio are prepared to abandon Bush because of the state’s GOP troubles, but when a huge electoral state is so closely divided, every little bit helps.