The Kerry campaign had an interesting observation over the weekend: Bush hasn’t been in Ohio in a while. No one knows why.
Ohio’s polls show the state is still a toss-up. With 20 electoral votes, Bush will almost certainly lose the election without the state’s support. Kerry is visiting Ohio a couple of times a week, but he isn’t running into his rival much because Bush isn’t there.
Bush’s last visit to the Buckeye state was Oct. 2 (16 days ago). Since then, he’s hit several key battlegrounds (Colorado, Arizona, Iowa, Nevada), but no swings through Ohio. Looking ahead at the schedule for the next few days, Bush won’t be there this week either. What’s the deal?
I have a few theories, ranging from reasonable, to paranoid, to tin-foil hat territory.
* Bush considers his slim lead insurmountable, so he’s investing time elsewhere because this one’s in the bag. This seems unlikely, especially since some polls actually show Kerry ahead in Ohio.
* This is some kind of Rove-inspired, counter-intuitive head fake (a la 2000) where Bush ignores the state he wants most. I know, I don’t understand it either.
* Bush’s internal polling shows the campaign in position to win the state, but perhaps the president’s appearances aren’t helping matters. Maybe the campaign figures Bush may have a better shot at Ohio if Ohioans don’t actually see the guy in person too much. This seems plausible.
* Because Ohio is dominated by Republicans throughout state government, maybe Bush is counting on it being this year’s Florida. In other words, the fix is in. (Just because we’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get us…)
Maybe there’s some other explanation, but it doesn’t seem to make sense for Bush to avoid Ohio for all of this time. Given Kerry’s increasing standing in the state, of course, I can only hope Bush continues to stay away.