Ominous clouds hanging over NRCC

March 9, 2008

Shortly after Democrats took back the House majority in November 2006, the National Republican Congressional Committee began considering what it would take to get it back. After all, the 109th Congress was a national disgrace, but by November 2008, it would be ancient history.

By last fall, the landscape was discouraging for the GOP. The NRCC’s fundraising was off badly. The polls looked awful. The party has struggled to curtail retirements and recruit favored candidates. The Republican leadership has been so discouraged with the National Republican Congressional Committee that House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) threatened to fire its chief strategists, and NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) considered resigning.

That was five months ago. In retrospect, Cole probably should have resigned and saved himself the aggravation.

Since September, Cole has faced a barrage of bad news:

* The NRCC lags behind the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by nearly $30 million in cash on hand; […]

* There been a wave of retirements by veteran Republican lawmakers that will force the NRCC to defend what were once seen as safe GOP seats;

* Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) was indicted on 35 federal corruption charges, which puts another Republican-controlled district in play;

* And the FBI continues its criminal investigation into a brewing accounting scandal that centers on the former NRCC treasurer’s activities.

And that was before a Democratic novice beat a well-known Republican for the former House Speaker’s reliably-Republican House seat yesterday.

I hate to kick someone when they’re down, but given how unbelievably unhinged the House Republican Caucus has been for, say, two decades or so, it’s hard not to enjoy their misfortune.

“By itself, this would not be that big of a deal, but coupled with everything else it will just deflate the [House Republican] Conference,” said an aide to one top GOP lawmaker. “And symbolically, losing Hastert’s seat is like the toppling of the Saddam statue in Baghdad for Republicans.” […]

Even better from Democrats’ perspective, the efforts on behalf of Oberweis by Hastert, House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), their presumptive 2008 presidential nominee, were not enough to stave off Oberweis’ loss. All three Republican leaders had campaigned for Oberweis in recent weeks, with McCain attending a fundraiser for him last month that raised nearly $257,000.

House Republicans already faced a daunting political landscape as Election Day grows closer. Twenty-eight House Republicans have announced their retirements or have resigned this election cycle — and nearly half of those represent highly-competitive districts.

Republicans are also privately pessimistic about retaining Democratic-trending suburban seats held by Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), James Walsh (R-N.Y.), and they presently lack a nominee for the open seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.)

In addition, Republicans haven’t been able to field credible recruits against freshman Democratic Reps. John Hall of New York, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Zack Space of Ohio — all of whom represent traditionally GOP districts that the party lost in the 2006 wave election.

On top of that, the DCCC maintains a huge fundraising advantage over its GOP counterpart, ending January with $35.4 million in cash, while the NRCC banked $6.4 million. That financial muscle will allow the Democrats to pour money into swing districts, giving the party a chance to further pad its House majority.

Ever have one of those years?

They’re on the ropes. A solid 50-state strategy in the general election can finish them off.

  • Helena Montana said:
    Can the Democrats do it? Do they have the will to do it?

    It’s not so much a question of will as questions of courage and character.

    Does the Democratic Congressional leadership have the courage to stand up to Bush (and corporate donors) on issues like Telecomm immunity? Or will they do what they usually do — hide under their desks and soil themselves at mere threat of an attack from the Right-wing Smear Machine?

    And,

    will the Democratic presidential nominees have the character to debate their relative merits without resorting to scorched-earth tactics and without declaring that the Republican nominee is more qualified than their opponent?

    My guess, given the history of the past few decades, is that it’s 50 – 50 whether the Democrats will manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again this year.

  • I’m sure Karl Rove will explain tonight in a Faux News special how this is really just a subtle twist in the strategy to complete that permanent majority by 2012.

  • But the real question is what will happen in a one party state. Can the Democratic Party get control of its primaries or do you really want Congressmen like Albert Wynn being a lame duck for 11 months.

    Also, in the coming one party state, how many competitive races will there be? Will the only competitive races be when an incumbent retires or moves on?

  • And what did they pour down the drain into Oberweis’ failed campaign in a ‘safe’ repub district? A million, with 6.4 in the bank? They’re beyond triage. Their only remaining decisions are where to lose and how badly.

  • By all means, kick the bastards when the are down. Kick them so hard and often they will never get up.

  • But the real question is what will happen in a one party state. Can the Democratic Party get control of its primaries or do you really want Congressmen like Albert Wynn being a lame duck for 11 months.

    Having a lump on a log caucus for a few months is a fine price to pay to get rid of Republicans in Democrat clothing such as Al Wynn.

    This isn’t about teams. We aren’t electing candidates for the (D) next to their name or the color they make their district show on the map. This is about progressive policies and representing your consituency. The likes of Al Wynn are learning that they have to do that or that they lose our support.

    The Democratic establishment supported and conceded to Zell Miller for years, until he finally betrayed them at the 2004 Republican convention. They kowtowed to Lieberman after the 2006 primaries rather than fully support the chosen candidate, and what did they get? A Bush dog with an (I) next to his name supporting John McCain – which is at least a little more honest than before.

    At least they are starting to get the message with Al Wynn.

  • Brandor,

    But as the Democratic Party becomes the one, dominant party, the only relevant election is the Democratic primary. It makes no sense to have a primary in the spring and a general election in the fall when there is only one political party.

    Also, how will redistricting be affect with only one political party? Will the ink blot district go away for will electing the proper number of blacks and Hispanics be more important that have continuous districts.

    Also, will the DSCC/DCCC’s recruitment process become the real election so that proper candidates can be picked and a line of succession be established in districts?

  • And a particularly obnoxious and dim-witted concern troll hangs over CBR…

    I hate to kick someone when they’re down, but given how unbelievably unhinged the House Republican Caucus has been for, say, two decades or so, it’s hard not to enjoy their misfortune.

    If you don’t want to kick them, can I have your turn? I’ve polished up my DMs just for the occasion.

  • By trying to elect progressives throughout the country the democratic party will be the extinct one in 10 years. It may sound good but its a very bad idea because progressives won’t win in the south and midwest. One thing it will do is possible make a 3 party system Rethugs on the right Democrats in the middle and Progressives on the left. That is why if Obama is elected president he will be one term and done.

  • CB, if you don’t want to muddy your shoes by kicking the pile of bovine excrement, I will gladly lend you my friend, Mr Crowbar. Simply aim for the base of the skull; he guarantees “a clean kill” each and every time. No fingerprints; no ballistics matching.

    “Smiting Republicans”—it’ll be an Olympic event yet!

  • The big difference between the Republican party and the Democratic party is that the Republicans are a machine that relies on lock-step unity to keep the money rolling in their butts in power. The Democrats have long been a coalition of interests that have common tendencies but don’t vote one way just because the party says so. If the Democrats control the executive and legislative branches (Bush has locked up the judiciary for some time) it won’t be one party rule rather the usually raucous amalgamation that will have active dissent no matter what the issue is.

    As far as the NRCC, nothing is more dangerous than a cornered animal and to add another cliche this drowning man of an organization needs to be thrown as many anchors as possible.

  • petorado,

    I have not seen active dissent in the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party cannot even produce presidential candidates who disagree on any major policy issue. they have to run on personalities because no dissent on issues is tolerated.

  • Comeback Bill said:
    By trying to elect progressives throughout the country the democratic party will be the extinct one in 10 years. It may sound good but its a very bad idea because progressives won’t win in the south and midwest.

    See my comment #19
    http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/archives/14833.html#comments

    Voters will vote for someone with strong convictions, even if they disagree with some of those convictions. While I was living in Minnesota, a very reliable blue state, they elected Republican Rod Grams, someone who was (I’m not kidding) to the right of Jesse Helms. One of Minnesota’s current senators is Republican Norm Coleman.

    Moderates, and even some thinking conservatives, don’t buy into the entire Republican agenda. Instead of being apologetic or trying to hide their beliefs, liberal Democrats need to say, “Hell, yeah, this is what I believe in!”

    Progressive candidates need to ask voters:

    Do you really what to give up your Social Security and take your chances with the same private market that brought you the savings and loan debacle, the dot-com bubble burst and the current mortgage crisis?

    Do you want to remove the “burdensome regulations” on businesses amd just cross your fingers and hope that they don’t provide your children with food tainted with salmonella and toys with lead paint?

    Does a few hundred gay people getting married in Massachusetts threaten the institution of marriage so much that you will vote for a guy who thinks it’s perfectly okay that your job and thousands of others are shipped overseas?

    Which do you think is better, raising taxes or borrowing another trillion dollars from China?

    How can the Republicans call it “Free Trade” when our products face tariffs and regulations going into their country but their products coming here don’t?

    Do you trust the government enough to let them keep a record of your internet use, even the porn sites you visit?

    I keep saying, over and over, the real problem is that Democrats suck at shaping the political debate.

  • I would hate it if there wasn’t a relevant opposing party (and I really don’t believe it will happen). What I would really like is an opposing party that doesn’t look like the right wing.

    I guess in a democracy, you deserve what you get, so what I really hope for is an electorate that totally rejects the ideas and politics of the GOP in the last 50 years or more. The Republicans didn’t create the attitudes it associates with, but it gave people with those attitudes a home and they came and gladly settled in.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if religous zealots, racists, hyper-nationalists, etc. were made to feel unwelcome in the Republican Party? Their residence in the GOP may marginalize that party, but I’d rather they leave and be marginalized on their own and have a legitimate GOP with challenging views on capitalism, the role of government, and creating societies that work for the individual as well as the group.

    And wouldnj’t it be great if both parties had progressive goals and the arguments were about how to achieve them.

  • Tom Bisson said:
    And wouldnj’t it be great if both parties had progressive goals and the arguments were about how to achieve them.

    Wouldn’t it be great if both parties fought for what was best for the American people instead of what was best for the multi-national corporations that give so much money as bribes campaign contributions?

    And wouldn’t it be nice to have a discussion about the merits of public financing of political campaigns without the Republicans shrieking “Socialism!” and Democrats diving back under their desks?

  • 9 superdestroyer said:
    But as the Democratic Party becomes the one, dominant party, the only relevant election is the Democratic primary. It makes no sense to have a primary in the spring and a general election in the fall when there is only one political party.

    I grew up in Alabama, which didn’t elect a Republican to state-wide office from 1901-1986. Yes, they still had primaries in the spring and a general election in the fall. The Republicans even ran candidates for most offices in the fall, it’s not like they didn’t still make up 20-30% of the electorate even in a state where they had no power at all. The Republican candidates just never won. This idea of the Democratic party suddenly turning into a nazi-like oppressive force that doesn’t allow dissent is utter rubbish, one of the most uninformed opinions I have ever seen. Been reading too much of Jonah Goldberg’s “work” lately?

  • Shalimar,

    If you look at municipal elections in the northeast, the only relevant elections are the Democratic primaries. The general elections are barely covered by the media because there is some nutcase Republican running who gets 15% of the vote.

    However, there are over 100 Democratic candidates running unopposed for reelection in 2008. If more than half of the Congressman and Senators are running for reelection unopposed, can you really call the U.S. a Democracy?

  • “I hate to kick someone when they’re down”

    It’s OK (encouraged even) if they’re Republican. Most them deserve a pillow over their face, too.

  • MsJoanne #18

    The NYT is correctly reporting that the RNC has more than the DNC.

    On the other hand, the DSCC and DCCC have more than the RSCC and RCCC.

    The NYT is reporting on the party National Committees themselves; the other 4 are the congressional and senatorial campaign committees.

  • Heh. Understandable.

    Each party has a national central committee: the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee (DNC, RNC).

    Then there are committees specific to each separate “segment” of government which are jointly established by the National Committee and the party leadership in that “segment” – these exist to promote policy, but mainly to recruit and support candidates. So for example, Democrats try to support their US Senate candidates through the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, or DSCC.

    (House is the Dem. Congressional Campaign Committee – DCCC; governors have the DGA, the Democratic Governors Assn. The R’s have the same three entities: RSCC, RCCC and RGA).

    Each does its own fundraising and spending, so depending on how their leadership does, we may do well on the Senate side but not the House (for example).

    Right now, the Dems have more cash on hand than their Republican counterpart committee in every instance except the national party itself (in part because rather than stockpile cash for campaigns, Dean has plowed it back into the 50-state strategy as fast as it comes in).

    Make more sense?

  • I hate to kick someone when they’re down…

    Not me. I’d cheerfully run over each and every one of the rat bastards with a giant Caterpillar tractor and then back up and run over them again to make sure they were turned into pancakes.

    Never forget that these are the same fucking shitheads who ruined your Christmas one year when they attempted to overthrow the government by impeachng the president for a blowjob.

    Keep your fingers crossed that Christopher J. Ward, former NRCC treasurer, colluded with members of Congress to launder lots and lots of money. If he did, the GOP can kiss 2008 bye-bye.

    I did a timeline on the NRCC financial scandal here.

  • “Ever have one of those years?”

    Ya buddy, seven of them and I suspect even if we take back the throne, we are going to have at least 5 more of ‘those’ years mopping up the slop they have created.

    For the record, I am with TAIO in having zero moral issues in kicking the hell out of them, especially when they are down.

  • The NRCC is in financial ruin and whose fault is that? The Republican platform is collapsing and whose fault is that? Are we supposed to have sympathy for a dying cause because their ubenfuhers brought their own demise upon themselves?? Noperooney.

    We are witnessing the end of a failed party, not a failed party system. Rest assured that your party will be replaced since this country is based on a two party system. The yet to be named replacement party will be made up of failed Republicans who control their own fate. Choose your platform wisely. And enough of this pansy ass whining. Cease and desist with this wringing of hands already. You people must spend a fortune on hankies.

    Fitzgerald Hussein Roket

  • while the NRCC banked $6.4 million.

    I wonder how much of that money will be spent on attorney fees when they’ll have to explain all their fraudulent behavior and campaign misappropriations.

    It’s better to not engage ‘superdestroyer’ with his one party fetish… It’s not going to happen, There will always be morons in the Republican party running on bizarre issues. Once the republican party starts weeding out the wack jobs and right wingers, they’ll be taken seriously again.

    In the meantime, a democratic one-party congress would be GREAT news for the country.

  • This has been the most nerve wrenching month for a political junkie like me. Just don’t let Clinton be our nominee. I want so badly to end any influence that the DLC has in our party . And of course we know how much the Clintons love the DLC!

  • Libra, that was great, thanks.

    I guess that lays to rest the whole “good night” dispute, and I look forward to the promised ad. Given that the young girl is now of legal age, perhaps she could tastefully take the lead on the whole ‘It’s 3AM and where’s Bill?” issue.

    Mrspanstreppon, your post causes me distinctly mixed feelings. We can take comfort in knowing that we are better than them, as shown by our support for Obama and his message of inclusion and re-unification. In the meantime, however, did you happen to notice where I left my steel-toed boots?

  • Kicking them while they’re down?

    I don’t know.

    Would you regard a national truth commission to uncover and publicize all the Republican lies and felonies of the last seven years as kicking them while they’re down?
    Would you regard turning certain interrogators and DOD personnel over to the International Court of Justice in The Hague to be tried as war criminals as kicking them while they’re down?
    Would you regard prosecuting Gonzales and disbarring Yoo and Addington and Leura Canary and Alice Martin as kicking them while they’re down?

    How about redistricting? The next census is already underway; would you regard redistricting away most of the GOP’s safe seats as kicking them while they’re down?

    ‘Cause if you do, then I’m in favor of kicking them while they’re down. Hard.
    These bastards have made a really good start at turning the nation I love,
    the nation in whose armed forces I served, into a fascist-lite police state and the moral laughingstock of the world. I will never forgive, and only forget when I die.

  • These bastards have made a really good start at turning the nation I love,
    the nation in whose armed forces I served, into a fascist-lite police state and the moral laughingstock of the world. I will never forgive, and only forget when I die.

    Well said. No lets get to the business of fixing it. His (36) first couple paragraphs are a good start in that direction.

  • Party dominance is less about the ideals that either party espouses and more about gerrymandering. The politicians allow us to keep our belief that we are voting for/against them, without talking too much about how they vote for us before they let us vote for them.

    The issue of gerrymandering will come up in the next Congress, and it is one of (if not the biggest) reason that the Dems want control of Congress. Corporate control of politicians is a related issue, but so long as we common Americans allow ourselves to be controlled by corporations, it’s rather naive to expect that our politicians should be above and beyond corporate control.

    Some degree of proportional representation and/or instant run-off voting (at least for primaries) would help put politicians back on issues and ideals. Our two party system and first past the post election methods make it too easy for the game to be about power…and that game plays out both between the parties and within the parties. For example, the hijacking of the GOP by the extremist/fundamentalist right. Moreover, so long as the game is about power, the idea of a loyal opposition is pretty well moot. The drive for power will never beget loyalty; and opposition becomes framed as opposition to opposing power – rather than ideas – with a view towards undermining the sitting power for the sake of gaining power…nothing more, nothing less.

  • It is simply amazing that such an inept bunch of dummies, the Democrats, can actually win elections. Of course, it doesn’t help that the Republicans can’t figure out how to win. But think about my first sentence. The Democrat media has turned what the party is doing to voters in Michigan and Florida a fluff piece, just a disagreement between pals. It is actually sheer incompetence on the part of the Democrat party in that they still can’t even figure out how to pay for it. And now I hear that Al Sharpton, in a typical Democrat ploy to use the courts to steal win elections, is planning on suing the DNC if they use the current delegates from Florida.

    And this doesn’t even begin to discuss the Democrat media’s attempt to ignore the incompetence of congressional Democrats, using talking points from Pelosi, Reid, et al., as news stories.

    Face it. Democrats could screw up a cup of coffee, and can’t handle running governments, at least not a free one, let alone elections (Michigan, Florida). I live in one of those states hijacked by Democrats with those the Democrats made poor to make sure they keep sucking from the taxpayers’ teet. It’s turning into a pit, and I’m maneuvering to get out of it (Illinois can say goodbye to my tax dollars). And they have a media ready to go along with it.

  • “And symbolically, losing Hastert’s seat is like the toppling of the Saddam statue in Baghdad for Republicans.”

    I’m interested in this analogy. Just WTF is he trying to say here? How is the GOP losing Hastert’s seat like a staged photo op designed to keep the masses in the US thinking that our army was being greeted as liberators by the Iraqis? I don’t get it…

    I hate to kick someone when they’re down, but given how unbelievably unhinged the House Republican Caucus has been for, say, two decades or so, it’s hard not to enjoy their misfortune.

    Yah, well, I’d enjoy it a lot more if it sounded like there were going to be actual investigations into these criminals to make sure the stuff they’ve gotten away with for the last two decades doesn’t happen again – or at least that the ones responsible for it will be punished.

    I have no doubt that that former treasurer for the NRCC will be punished severely for his faking of audits and embezzlement (if it’s found that there’s been embezzlement and not just incompetence). Because Republicans know how to punish people who screw them over. Dems just want to hold hands, sing kumbayah, and wait around for the next time the Republicans get strong enough to kick them in the nuts again. I wish they’d learn from their mistakes but they never do.

  • I hate to kick someone when they’re down

    It’s more than just kicking – it’s trying in a public court of law by a jury of peers, then sentencing to the harshest possible term allowed, and banished from public service for life. No lobbying, no fundraising, no cushy wingnut welfare.

    I overcome any desire for mercy pretty rapidly when I think about what the Republican Party has done to my country over the last 7 years.

    Dems just want to hold hands, sing kumbayah, and wait around for the next time the Republicans get strong enough to kick them in the nuts again.

    Lemme guess, Rush told you that, right? You apparently have not been talking to any real, live Democrats of late.

  • Stories like this can instantly put a spring in my step, a song in my heart and a smile on my face.

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