On Obama-McCain polls, it depends on the meaning of ‘squeaks by’

August 6, 2008

Yesterday, Lifetime Networks released a national poll of women and their presidential preferences. Time’s Mark Halperin said Barack Obama “edged out” McCain in the poll. Obama’s lead? 11 points. “Edged out” made it sound like it was close. It wasn’t.

Similarly, CNN characterizes Obama’s five-point national lead as “squeaking by” McCain.

The race between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama is extremely tight, according to the latest CNN “Poll of Polls.” Just five points separate the two candidates — Obama’s 48 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

As Atrios put it, “While it might cause an ulcer, I do sorta hope that for a brief time McCain holds what will be described as a ‘tremendous’ 5 point lead or something similar.”

This seems to happen quite a bit. According to Chris Matthews, when McCain holds a six-point lead with a given demographic, it’s significant. When Obama holds a six-point lead, it’s “almost … negligible.”

It’s largely a function of expectations, I suppose, but it’s getting kind of silly. Sure, I’d be delighted, and feel a lot less stress, if Obama were cruising with a 20-point lead right now. But it’s almost as if news outlets are trying to convince people that a six-point lead against one of the nation’s best-known, media-loved politicians, who has spent every day for weeks bashing the hell out of his less-known Democratic challenger is some kind of disaster.

It’s not.

Here’s what we know. Obama leads by six in the new AP poll…

Solid margins among women, minorities and young voters have powered Barack Obama to a 6 percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential race, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Obama is ahead of his Republican rival 47 percent to 41 percent, The Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed. The survey was taken after the Democratic senator from Illinois had returned from a trip to Middle Eastern and European capitals, and during a week that saw the two camps clash over which had brought race into a campaign in which Obama is striving to become the first African-American president.

…by five in the CNN poll…

…and by five in the new Time poll.

After two weeks of sharpened attacks between the campaigns, Barack Obama is maintaining a narrow 5% lead over John McCain in the race for the White House, a new TIME poll shows. Overall, the poll shows Obama leading McCain 46% to 41% when undecided voters with a slight preference are included (the margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points). That gap is the same as the presumptive Democratic nominee held in June.

McCain going negative last week seemed to help him, but Obama is swinging back this week. With that in mind, the polls will probably continue to fluctuate for a while.

Kevin summarized the landscape pretty well yesterday: “Obama is taking some lumps right now, but he’s quietly building up an effective ground game and raising trainloads of money for the fall. There’s no need to panic over a few days of weak polling.”

Agreed, especially when the polling isn’t that weak. I’m not as confident as some that the election will work out fine for Dems, but I’ve lost count how many items I’ve seen in traditional news outlets over the last several days about the shockingly-small leads — mid-single digits — Obama currently has.

There’s just no reason for it.

There’s just no reason for it.

Yes there is: Money. Who’s going to buy all those expensive campaign ads if the race is a blowout?

  • Since Paris Hilton has come up with the most thoughtful and detailed energy plan in this campaign so far I nominate her for Obama’s vp. Beises the energy plan Biches, she’s hot!

  • Maybe ther press is on our side.

    It is still not too late to loose this election. Who wants to spend time with voter’s registration and voter turn out efforts if we’re so far ahead that we’re going to win big no matter what?

  • Question….Do these polls have anything to do with electoral votes? If they don’t then how valid is the “lead” of one over the other?

  • i have been saying this for days, but we do NOT want a blow out now. this is great: you get the benefit of a real lead in the polls without a real lead in the public perception, so there is no big lead to lose. you want to peak later, not now. it is about expectations. we would all be tempering expectaitons if the media trumped these leads.

    Obama will get out the vote better than McCain. Obama’s voters are more energized. Obama is a better speaker and more charasmatic figure. he has the intangibles.

  • I hate polls. I really do. I know people who love them, check them every day. I just don’t get it. National polls are worthless. The only poll I care about is the election.

  • I wouldn’t get too worked up over how the corporate media frames the race. They are not going talk about the issues that matter, but do everything in their declining power to shape this up as a close contest, when it’s not.

    They’ve been doing this for some months now, and it’s not like Obama’s exactly slipping.

    Surely someone out there must document the polling numbers over the last few months and compare …

    I tend to think it’s a testament to how disconnected these outlets are with voters and their readers. This has been happening for some years now … these same outlets led the cheerleading for the Iraq war and looked how that turned out …

  • Obama continues to poll well, raising doubts about how Obama will fair in the general election. Is Obama too popular to win a national election? Will the thousands of cheering fans that fill the Denver stadium at his acceptance speech hurt him?

    To make matters worse, news was leaked today that Obama is well preferred by Europe and the rest of the world, leading to concerns this may boost his popularity here at home at a critical time when the Obama camp is attempting to play down enthusiasm, and present a more insecure, less-self confident side of Obama, so that he does not fall into the same traps that doomed the cocky, risky, hyperpartisan campaigns of Gore and Kerry that never let up from playing offense. That addiction to risk-taking and bringing the fight to the enemy with adulating followers is widely seen to have doomed those campaigns.

  • While I realize that some of you think that panicing is going to be made an Olympic Sport in 2012 and are busy practicing daily, a few points will make it obvoious how strong a lead Obama has now, and will have — yes, I think I am one of the ‘confident’ ones Steve refers to.

    a:) Polls are weighted, to some extent, by past voting history, which means the Religious Right is overweighted and young voters and blacks are undercounted — though I’m not sure the ‘land-line argument’ is true.

    b:) These polls don’t take into account the ‘Miss Buffalo Chip’ effect, which will keep many more RRs home — especially if evangelists and pastors noticed it.

    c:) The comparison of the conventions should be worth a good two or three points.

    d:) The debates will be disastrous for McCain even if the mikes go out. Give Obama a minimum boost of 5% for them.

    Again, McCain won’t win 100 EVs.

  • This poll of CNN’s is completely bogus!! CNN – you are a farce for truthful and ethical reporting!

    Why are you not sampling BLUE STATES with the RED STATES in conducting these polls? The only polling you are doing and gathering your sources are from RED STATES where Obama is doing a great job of making inroads on McCain’s base!

    That’s the real story – not this crap you are feeding America into believing that this is a close race! It is not – Obama beats McCain by over 100 electoral votes!!!! Write a piece and do a story on that – forget the polls that are skewed by you CNN!

    How disgraceful

  • Your story should be WHY ISN’T MCCAIN MAKING ANY INROADS IN BLUE STATES, BUT OBAMA IS CRUSHING HIM IN MAKING INROADS IN RED STATES? What about that story CNN and Main Stream Media?!!

    DISGUSTING!!

  • Maybe the corporate media are tacitly agreeing that Obama is the much superior choice and that it is mind numbing to think that so many people support McCain.

  • Patience is good advice. Watch the polls spike for Obama after the first debate, when much of America can watch this grinning old fool first-hand.

    I say this even though Kerry cleaned Bush’s clock in the debates.

    I wonder how pronounced the “hump” will be on McCain? I wonder if they’ll give him a step-stool to stand on?

  • Well, you could go further here. When Obama is way up in a demographic, he gets compared to actual exit polls from the previous two elections. Then he would need to outperform _that_ gap by 5-6% to be doing well.

    It there is any further question, the poll methodology is examined.

    A few days back we had the blue collar poll by Pew. One criticism was that the top-line question was actually like 15th or so, after the voter had been reminded of all the reasons they should vote for Obama and not McCain. It simply is not fair to remind anyone of their situation, they probably forgot they were poor.

    Then we have to remember to subtract a few points for the liars who can’t admit they will never vote for a black dude.

    But probably the most bogus comparison is that Democrats are usually up by 20 points at this stage of the game. Like what?

  • If your last-ditch strategy to ‘win’ the election is to flip votes in those paperless Diebold machines, then you must also extort the MSM to report poll numbers that makes the margin accomodate that strategy.

    I want a very tight chain-of-custody policy for those machines. I want a paper receipt of how I cast my vote complete with a distinct ID number assigned to that receipt. I want to get on the web with that number and confirm that my vote was registered correctly. And I want some serious jail time if the info is recorded incorrectly and that chain-of-custody doesn’t have a damn good explaination.

  • Be careful talking up the debates. The expectations game goes against Obama on this one. He’s expected to do well so any minor flaw will be magnified out of proportion by the MSN. McCain on the other hand has no expectations, so as long as he doesn’t screw up royally (ie spending the entire debate urging people to vote for Obama) than the MSN will say he did brilliantly.

    Remember in 2000 and 2004 polls showed people who WATCHED the debates tended to score them in favor of Gore and Kerry. People who just listened to post debate punditry, scored them for Bush.

  • I pimp, therefore I am:

    NoahAndrewUncaPaulDoctor Biobrain

    Good lines:CB said: If you’ve got a problem, John McCain has a surge.FreeProton said: Also he’s a Fighter-Jet-Ridin’ Hanoi-Hilton-Survivin’ Straight-Talkin’ Wife-To-Nude-Beauty-Pageant-Sellin’ Maverick, so shut yer trap and vote.Ericfree said Let’s hope McCain crashes a few more Sturgis-type events. Too bad there’s no Spring Break before the election.

    Commenters Q&A
    Q. Who are all those famous pundits posting here?
    A. If the commentor is a celebrity, it’s probably a spoofsnark by mercenaryscookbook. e.g. Ron Fournier or Nicolas Kristoff.

  • CB left out the 2 most reputable national pollsters Rasmussen and Gallup, which both have Obama ahead by only 2.

    Molly, you have to consider that those electoral college polls are giving Obama electoral votes for states where he is ahead by less than 2 points. That’s within the margin of error.

    This is not what I expected from the Democratic nominee in an election year that was supposed to be ours for sure.. it’s like Obama is ready to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s really disheartening.

  • I don’t care what those polls say, Sen. Obama will be the next President of the United States providing, he will not be cheated out of the election like the two democratic presidential nominees before him. No majority of people in their right mind would of elected Geogre Bush, not just for one but 2 terms.
    Please, let this be a fair election. Let every man/woman vote count. Do not turn African Americans and Puerto Ricans away from the polls as was done in ’00 and ’04. Many people were actually beaten and incarcerated by police just for trying to cast their vote. People are always sqawking about equality. Let equality show at the polls on November 4th.

  • Kimberly, I hate to break this to you, but McCain is within a few points of Obama in blue states too.

    It’s only August, normally the Democrat is WAY ahead this early in the contest and he’s barely beating McSame in New Hampshire and MIchigan. He’s pretty much lost Florida and Ohio already, and will have to win in states like Virginia and North Carolina just to keep up.

  • #22,

    Obama is known as a bad debater. It’s thought to be his weak suit, which is why he wants to limit debates. “Townhalls” and debates is where McCain is though to thrive.

  • LOL…”Obama’s pretty much lost Florida and Ohio already…” That’s a good one, concern troll.

    Cite, please.

    Until this week, most polls have had Obama in the lead in both states. Florida may have swung slightly in McCain’s favor this week, but it is well within reach.

  • AMERICA HAS ALREADY SHOWN ITSELF TO BE POLITICALLY and RACIALLY FAIR (by Barack’s lead thus far, for example).

    NOW IT MUST PROVE ITSELF SMART:

    Will America give the world FLIP-FLOP CELEBRITY OBAMA

    or SOLID WAR-HERO McCAIN…

    The world is watching.

  • Does anyone have a dog biscuit for kenpeter? He’s earned it.

    P.S. Extra doggie snack for the use of ALL CAPS!

  • Polls are notoriously unreliable… my God it sounds like I’ve said that before!
    Why do we always go over this?
    We just got done dusting Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Obama won the Democratic nomination fair and square. There are millions of Americans out there that love everything about Obama! How the hell can a error in polling possibly change perspective?
    People are so fickle.

  • I would not want the country to be run by someone with military experience. They are oftentimes too belligerent, pugnacious, and overbearring. Mccain has been known to lose his temper from time to time, which makes my point. I think we need someone who is cool, calm, and level-headed, like Obama. His approach to diplomacy would be much safer for Americans.

  • Screw the polls! We must be winning. They’re all so freaking panicked.

    (psssst danimal, that’s *greg* who’s still pissed about having to pay off Hillary’s debt.)

  • hey, we an still get Clinton it is not too late. Delegates pledged but did not promise flip-flopper Obama their votes before he reversed himself on FISA etc. Go to PUMA08.com

  • I think it was in Glenn Greenwald’s last book, Tragic Legacy, when he discusses republican complaints about biased polling– he analyzes many of the Rasmussen polls from the 2006 elections and finds them almost always erring in favor of republicans. What I suppose this means is that, if correct, you can safely add 2-3 percentage points to the dem’s percentages to get the real results 🙂

    Also, am I crazy or was McCain way ahead a few weeks ago? Like 5-10% ? Other polls showed them about even and others showed Obama 1% ahead.. Is anyone else confused by the complete unpredictability of these polls ??

  • Using the same terms, Reagan “edged out” Carter in 1980.

    If Obama can “squeak out” that kind of victory over McCain, I’ll mop the flop sweat from my brow, then do a happy chicken dance down K Street as the lobbyists decorate the sidewalk with stains.

  • Apparently the media is trying to generate more interest by trashing Obama’s lead in almost all polls. Maybe news organizations ought to stick to reporting results and nothing else. They ought to spend some of the analytical time on vetting John McCain. He is receiving a free pass on a lot of stuff- gaffs, loss of memory, flip-flops, behind in polls and not gaining, ads with blatant lies and misrepresentations. Why?

    Obama has continually led McCain in all polls by 5 to 6 percent for the last 3 months, and it has not gone up or down. That is a pretty telling statistic. And, there are lots of young adults out there who don’t have land-line telephones, so his support is being undercounted.

  • If a 5-point lead is ‘squeaking by’
    and
    If a 6-point lead is ‘almost negligible’
    and
    George Bush announced after his less than 1% victory that he had a mandate.
    does that mean that when Obama wins by ‘only’ 5 or 6 points….

    Obama can be the new ‘decider’ who does not have to listen to (or allow) the Republicans to participate in any governing.

    Sounds good to me

  • Didn’t Little Georgie think he had “amassed political capital” with a 1% victory last time???? And didn’t the press corpse agree?????

  • A few more points.

    Obama HAS consistently been ahead of McCain — with some fluctuations, mostly during the time when Obama was ‘resting up’ and McCain was campaigning heavily. (And remember my point about the toll that campaigning takes on a person. It isn’t easy to make five speeches in five states every day. It won’t be easy for Obama, but McCain is both older and sicker. He won’t be able to keep up the pace.)

    This means that, for McCain to have a chance, he has to
    a) keep his current support intact
    AND EITHER
    b) convince a majority of undecideds to decide for him
    or
    c) make inroads into Obama’s support.

    Now c) seems *ahem* unlikely. Obama’s support has been tested by the long battle with Hillary, and they are solid and enthusiastic. The Hillary supporters who were going for McCain have already decided to do so — the idiots — and the rest have realized that supporting Hillary’s principles and positions means going for Obama, not for someone who opposes everything she has stood for. (Some people argue that picking Sebelius would weaken this, but I still can’t see it except for a minute number — and imagine if it were Hillary who put her into nomination. But it might be interesting to contemplate what would happen if Obama picked a male VP and it was McCain who picked a female one. I don’t see it happening, don’t see anyone he could pick who doesn’t have too much baggage — Palin — was the ‘wrong’ race — Condi — or wouldn’t take it — Snowe or Collins.)

    Okay, so let’s look at a) McCain’s support is already far from solid. He’s always had trouble with the RRs, and Sturgis may cripple him with them. Republican candidates are being urged to ‘run away from their party’ — how better than to back away from McCain, and a lot of them don’t like him anyway. And a lot of his current support is based on a combination of an over-estimation of him and an ignorance of Obama. The debates will go a long way towards correcting both.

    So this leaves b) the undecided. Okay, some are racists who won’t admit it, but they should really be considered in McCain’s camp already. Others are, in fact, thoughtful but unaligned people. Is McCain going to impress them? Not hardly.

    Which leaves the ‘idiot factor,’ the people who voted for Bush. But Bush didn’t win by landslides — ignoring whether he ‘won’ at all. Many of them were people who were Republicans by nature, see above. Others were people who hadn’t seen the disaster Bush was yet, or the War was, and who regret their votes. Potential for McCain? Maybe some. (Others were RRers and homophobes, but they aren’t making an appearance so far — their ‘leaders’ are but the followers are getting less and less numerous. Anybody notice that the current Heineken ad “Share” includes a scene in a gay bathhouse? And I’m talking about ads on baseball games, not on LOGO.)

    But there’s always the Rovian slime machine, gearing up to blast Obama. Only why haven’t they already started? The more McCain falls behind and doesn’t ‘develop traction’ the harder it is to keep his current support intact, the harder it is to raise money except from the big donors. Why aren’t we seeing anything but scurrilous e-mails (and I’ve never gotten one) that are more likely private productions. Hillary and the PUMAs used Wright, Ayres, Rezko, but all we are hearing is ‘celebrity,’ ‘arrogant,’ Paris Hilton — and didn’t THAT backfire, 3 million downloads of her response as of earlier today. In fact, every time McCain tries a new ad, there’s a Republican blasting him.

    No, he’s not going to swing the majority of ‘undecided’ he needs — even to Diebold the election. (Which takes both a close race and an unscupulous Republican State Administration to pull off.)

    People, we’re going to win big, historically big. (Except for Bush-Dukakis, all the previous landslides, Roosevelt-Landon, TRoosevelt-Parker, Nixon-McGovern, Reagan-Mondale have involved incumbents.)

    Again, panicing won’t be an Olympic Sport, so stop trying for a place on the American team.

  • Paranoid bullshit with numbers. I’ve always been right. Obama will win in a blowout…it was never close. People act this paranoid because the stakes are so high. They have no idea how to include disinterested voters whose only criteria for vote determination is “I’m tired of this shit”, or “I don’t want no more of this…time for a change”. Working constantly, have little time to watch tv news or read papers and have had their mind made up for months now on Obama.

    Someone trying to poll these people would get a hang up ’cause their time is so rushed. Political junkies are out here hammering away on numbers and opinions but forget that this election is like no other because of our current disaster and the necessity that is forcing change.

    Obama in a landslide or it’s fixed. McCain is a dweeb and is only a senator out of sympathy for him. Mr. McGoo Personality will never be president. Mad Dog McCain was just the least embarrassing candidate the GOP had.and that is not saying much.

  • The youngest US Presidents in History were

    1. Roosevelt (42 years)
    2. JFK (43 years)
    3. Bill Clinton (46 years)

    Is Obama (47) too young to lead this country?

    You decide.

  • True, Joey, — if a little over-stated — but don’t forget the down-ticket races, not just the Congressional ones but the State Legislative ones. Reapportionment is coming up, and they will decide it.

  • Not only is he too old, Chris, but he is too sick. Old we could deal with. But can he sustain 4 years of running this country? I think not. If McCain was 5 points ahead the media would report it as a “landslide”. We, the public, knows the way the media operates. I would like to know who is doing the polling and who they are polling. Obama has all of the black vote, all of the hispanic vote in part thanks to Richardson, the asian vote, many of the Hillary women, and even some “working class” men who just are tired of the Republican policies. To me that should add up to much more than 5 points!

  • And when they say Obama is too young and too experienced to lead this country, don’t you actually hear the words “too black” or “too uppity”? As an African-American, that’s what I hear! Chris at 2:46 am has proven that age is not an obstacle. So what’s the problem?

  • why does no one mention the zogby or rassmussen poll taken 3 days ago??? both showed senator mc cain ahead by one point.by the way,the rassmussen is generally considered the most accurate by people on both the right and the left.

  • In a surprise move today, the McCain campaign agreed to stop lying about Barack Obama, provided the Obama campaign would please stop telling the truth about John McCain.

  • wow,must be all libs on this blog.everyone wants to see barack HUSSEIN osama get elected president of our beloved country.god help us.
    mc cain 08

  • just one other thing,than i am getting off this left wing blog.think about this libs-while john mc cain was busy fighting for his country,becoming a pow and a war hero,BO was busy hanging out with true patriotic americans like rezko,the “reverend” jeremiah wright,william ayers and bernadine dorn (who should be in prison).
    mc cain 08

  • A few words taken from Barrack Obama’s first resume.

    Conceited, self-absorbed, arrogant, self-important, hubristic, ambitious, vain, snobbish, stuck-up, high and mighty, smug, superior, self-righteous, haughty, full-of-yourself, spectacular, elitist, snooty, overconfident, showy, self-aggrandizing, puffed-up, narcissistic, educated, pious, bigheaded, inflated, vainglorious, condescending, incomparable, untouchable, illustrious, outstanding, superior, flaunting, high-class, pretentious, exceptional, advanced, better-quality, pompous, stateliness, august, ostentatious, erudite, portentous, grand, magnificent, flashy, brassy, significant, affected, brilliant, glowing, special, esteemed, extraordinary, unique, distinctive, exclusive, bold, daring, assertive, intrepid, audacious, valiant, brash, forthright, divine, scholarly, nervy, self-assured, better, enhanced, a cut above, first-class, prominent, patronizing, aristocratic, regal, bossy, famous, high and mighty, breath taking, supercilious, majestic, imperial, stately, fancy, noble, overconfident, egotistical, self-centered, proud, pushy, brazen, presumptuous, aggressive, strident, loud, studious, cocky, boastful, swaggering, audacity, resplendent, knowledgeable, blustery, bullying, memorable, privileged, selected, anointed, god-like, chosen, preferred, vaunted, saintly, extravagant, inflated, overstated, honored, advantaged, intimidating, aggressive, great, luminous, radiant, dazzling, shining, sparkling, gleaming, skillful, intelligent, gifted, refined, accomplished, impressive, swollen, fulfilled, precious, lustrous, elegant, clever, sharp, brainy, well-read, cultured, awesome, learned, awe-inspiring, incredible, urbane, distinguished, imposing, eminent, renowned, masterful, decorous, venerable, sure, secure, poised, self-possessed, certain, paramount, superlative, unsurpassed, finest, high-minded, edifying, enriching, genuine, marvelous.

    And that’s before he became Senator. And now celebrity.

  • Polls are dumb. When polls are released there needs to be more information like what are the ages of the people polled, what states are the from, how many are republicans and democrats. Polling 1000-3000 is not representative of the entire country and is a very stupid pratice.

    The MSM needs to be clear when they cite polls. Instead of saying 48% of the public believe this way they need to say 48% of the 1000 people who were polled. A much more accurate statement.

  • Dean O,

    I think you got Bush’s resume confused with Obama. And it must of took you a while to find all those adjectives. Way to go loser.

  • This liberal rag is almost as illiterate and uninteligent as the alledged polls are. Obama is better on the economy? no way anyone who thinks that government can run things better than the markets is flat wrong and unable to think for themselves. The last time I checked the soviets are gone because that system clearly doesn’t work and no one want the government ( at least smart people) to make our decisions for us. Bottom line is governemt is for very special purpose 1 protect and defend us , not control us. remember when we treid these failed policies in the late 70s . get a clue you hopeless kool aid drinking liberals.

  • while john mc cain was busy fighting for his country,becoming a pow and a war hero,BO was busy hanging out with true patriotic americans like rezko,the “reverend” jeremiah wright,william ayers and bernadine dorn (who should be in prison) — sean, @51

    Actually, at that very time, Obama was busy hanging out his diapers to dry, but don’t let history stand in the way of your lies.

  • If the media had stayed out of the whole process from the beginning neither would have a lead, because neither would be the nominee. I have never been given the chance to ‘vote’ for a poll of any kind on the candidates & don’t believe that the American people have any say in the way the President is elected anyway. It is all left up to the Electoral College in the end, and though I have been told they are supposed to vote the way their district wants I doubt they do. They each do their own thing. So being one of the older working women in this country neither of them will get my vote. I don’t like either one & wouldn’t walk across the street to vote for either.

  • For those who want a truly accurate read of the current standing of the two candidates, I suggest http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. It polls on a state-by-state basis giving a much more truthful picture as they calculate electoral college votes (Obama leads McCain by 50 votes!!). There’s no such thing as a national election, so CNN, Rasmussen, Gallup, et al are complete nonsense – pay no attention to them!!!

  • OBANANA is OFF TO HAWAII for a little HOLIDAY…

    Ah, the LIFE OF A CELEB…

    (JOHN McCAIN IS ON THE election TRAIL— WORKING, of course).

  • I agree with the author if he is implying what I think he could be implying. Obama’s lead is more substantial than the pollsters are leading us to believe. Most are understating his advantage out of self-interest. If the truth were known – that Obama has the election in the bag – interest in the election would wane. But as long as it appears the election is close, reader interest will remain high.
    For the real truth on the election, and on American politics generally, buy The Nazi Paradigm available at createspace/com.3338674

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