Just a month after Arthur Finkelstein, a George Pataki confidant, complained that the Republican Party “has become the party of the Christian right more so than in any other period in modern history,” Pataki fired him and Kieran Mahoney, another top political aide. What’s Pataki up to? It depends on whom you ask.
Kos wrote today that Pataki has two immediate options: run for re-election against Attorney General Eliot Spitzer or run for the Senate against Hillary Clinton. At this point, both races are two years away, but Pataki trails both Dems in statewide polls.
I think, however, that Kos missed an option: Pataki, for some reason, believes he’s a credible presidential candidate for ’08.
There are signs that the Pataki era in Albany, after nearly a decade, is winding down. Although the governor and his aides maintain that he might yet seek a fourth term — “There is just so much to do,” he told me, with as much conviction as he can muster — he is developing an exit strategy. He is trying to maximize the options for his next political step, which, inconceivable as it may sound, could well include a campaign for the presidency.
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Last fall, he spoke at an Iowa Republican Committee dinner, and then in January and again in May, made pilgrimages to New Hampshire — touching down in the two states that just so happen to play an outsize role in presidential campaigns. In between, he spoke to Republican audiences in Washington State, Oregon, Georgia, and Florida.
I don’t doubt that’s what is on Pataki’s mind, but if he really believes he has a shot at the nomination, he hasn’t been outside of New York much.
Pataki is, by 21st century standards, a moderate Republican. He’s pro-choice, supports gay rights, favors gun control, and has no meaningful ties to the religious right movement. Most of the GOP grassroots is only passively familiar with Pataki, but those who do know him disapprove of his centrism. For example, when the speakers’ list for the Republican National Convention was announced over the summer, featuring high-profile slots for Pataki and Schwarzenegger, far-right House members insisted these two were outside the GOP mainstream.
“The strength of the Republican majority in America is not in the California governor’s office or in the moderate politics of George Pataki,” [Indiana Rep. Mike] Pence said. “It’s in the millions of pro-family voters who will campaign for our candidates and turn out on Election Day.”
I guess that’s one endorsement Pataki won’t be picking up in ’08.
Nevertheless, the guy is clearly thinking about running for president. Does he have a shot? Consider what the chairman of the South Carolina GOP told New York magazine:
Katon Dawson, the South Carolina Republican chairman, touched all the politically correct bases when asked how Giuliani or Pataki would fare in the South Carolina Republican primary. Sure, they would have a chance to win, he said: “They both took America on its worst day, and made us better by the minute.” He helpfully pointed out that this is no small matter; no Republican has won the party’s nomination in recent times without capturing the South Carolina primary, he said.
Did he know that Pataki and Giuliani have been staunch supporters of gun control? “Well,” he drawled, “we are all supporters of the NRA in South Carolina.”
Was he aware that both men supported a woman’s right to an abortion? Dawson paused. “That is a litmus test in the South. That would be plowing new ground in South Carolina.”
And how about their support of some gay rights? There was no pause now. “A big stumbling block,” he said.
Nevertheless, if Pataki really wants to make a serious run at the ’08 nomination, it makes sense that he’s sacked Finkelstein. It would also make sense for him to bypass the ’06 cycle altogether, because a defeat in either race, which seems fairly likely, would effectively end his career.
My prediction: Pataki “retires” gracefully in ’06, Spitzer and Clinton win, Pataki announces his presidential “exploratory committee” in ’07, and comes in fifth in the Iowa caucuses in ’08.