House Republicans want, more than anything in the world, to approve the oil companies’ request for more coastal drilling. Desperate consumers aren’t sure it’ll help, but they’re willing to try anything, and look askance at those who aren’t willing to give more drilling a shot. House Dems, who feel pretty confident about their chances at re-election this year, don’t want to support a bad bill, but don’t want risk their majority on this.
Enter Speaker Pelosi, who’s taking a very smart approach, and delivering a compelling message to her caucus members who are afraid of public sentiment on drilling: Do what you have to do.
[W]hat looks like intraparty tension on the surface is part of an intentional strategy in which Pelosi takes the heat on energy policy, while behind the scenes she’s encouraging vulnerable Democrats to express their independence if it helps them politically, according to Democratic aides on and off Capitol Hill.
Pelosi’s gambit rests on one big assumption: that Democrats will own Washington after the election and will be able to craft a sweeping energy policy that is heavy on conservation and fuel alternatives while allowing for some new oil drilling. Democrats see no need to make major concessions on energy policy with a party poised to lose seats in both chambers in just three months — even if recess-averse Republicans continue to pound away on the issue.
“The reality is we will have a new president in three months, and what Bush and the Republicans are trying to do amounts to a land grab for the oil companies,” said one senior House Democratic aide involved with party strategy. “I don’t think we have to give in at all pre-election — we have many more options postelection.”
Look, there’s not a whole lot Congress can do in the immediate term anyway. Even Republicans, when they’re not in front of the cameras, know that increased coastal drilling is just a shallow ploy to mislead voters. Whether they hold a vote or not is of minimal practical consequence.
So instead of negotiating with Bush, and necessarily having a worse bill, why shouldn’t Congress see what the election brings? As Kevin asked the other day, “Any bill passed while George Bush is president will inevitably be a horrible kludge, so why not wait? What’s the downside?”
There really isn’t one. Presumably, Republicans want Dems to be afraid of their meaningless House sit-in, but Pelosi & Co., wisely, don’t seem to care.
And sure enough, vulnerable Dems are taking Pelosi’s advice and showing some independence.
Democratic House aides say the energy agenda has been carefully gamed out in strategy sessions, and Pelosi always intended to take heat on gas prices while tacitly encouraging more vulnerable Democrats to publicly disagree with her and show their independence.
Freshman Democrats like Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania and Don Cazayoux of Louisiana have taken her up on the offer.
Altmire has said a drilling vote “will happen,” while Cazayoux, hoping to hang on to his seat in a conservative Baton Rouge-area district, on Friday sent a letter to Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) demanding a vote on more domestic oil exploration. […]
To some extent, House Republicans seem to be playing right along with the strategy, taking Pelosi’s name in vain dozens of times during their rebel House sessions over the past few days and making her the villain who won’t allow oil drilling votes.
“It’s grossly unfair to the Democrats who want a vote,” said Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas). “[Pelosi] needs to cut that out.”
Actually, she needs to do exactly what she’s been doing.