As you’ve hopefully come to expect on Friday afternoons, I have some statewide polling data to share. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, there haven’t been as many polls this week, so today’s list is a little shorter than usual. As always, these results were released within the last seven days.
Massachusetts (12 electoral votes)
University of Massachusetts — Kerry 54, Bush 32, Nader 2
Comment: Duh.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac University — Kerry 53, Bush 36
Comment: There were rumors, about a year ago, that Republicans thought they had a chance in New York. How terribly silly.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Fairleigh Dickinson University — Kerry 41, Bush 40
Comment: Don’t panic. Some early polls in NJ in 2000 showed a relatively close race, right before Gore opened it up and won by 16 points.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Comment: It’s going to be like this all the way through November. A Rasmussen poll from March had almost identical results.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Elway Poll — Kerry 46, Bush 41, Nader 2
Comment: Gore won Washington by about 5% in 2000 and Kerry looks poised to win by about the same margin. Bush may make a few appearances to try and help Nethercutt, but I suspect Kerry (and Murray) will win.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
University of Oregon — Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1
Comment: An Oregonian poll recently showed Kerry leading by 5, so don’t worry too much. Oregon will probably be close — Gore won by a hair in 2000 — but the state has backed the Dem in four of the last four presidential elections.
One last interesting national poll was conducted by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, gauging the “college student vote.” The results were encouraging. Kerry led Bush, 48% to 38%, with Nader getting 5%. Among students who are also likely voters, the lead grows to a 56-33 margin.