I’m afraid it’s another three-day weekend for me, but I still have some Poll Day data to share. It’s a relatively brief list this week (they can’t all be like last week), with only six states offering numbers. As always, these are the statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 50, Kerry 43
Comment: Don’t panic. SUSA’s methodology — automated phone surveys — is known to occassionally produce strange results, and I think this is one of those instances. Every poll in Florida for the last six months has shown a maximum lead of 2 points — and even that has varied between Kerry and Bush. This result just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Gonzales Research — Kerry 52, Bush 38, Nader 2
Comment: Bush got 40% in Maryland in 2000, so his support has gotten even worse in a state that has backed the Dem strongly in each of the last three elections. It’s solid Blue.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 52, Bush 34, Nader 7
Comment: I’m really not sure why anyone would bother to commission a poll in New York anymore. The results are always the same. Gore beat Bush in NY by a whopping 25 points in 2000 — and Kerry may very well top that.
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
Brown University — Kerry 49, Bush 25, Nader 5
Comment: An incumbent president enjoys 25% support in a state? I didn’t really think that was possible. Bush even garnered a 36% in Vermont a couple of weeks ago. But 25%? Bush lost RI in 2000 by a stunning 29 points. The only thing worth watching here is to see how much worse it is in 2004.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 41
Comment: I guess it’s relatively good news that Bush is below 50%, but still, I had hoped Kerry would be more competitive in Tennessee right now.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Kerry 46, Bush 42, Nader 2
Comment: After the state’s relatively close finish in 2000 (Gore by 5%), Washington has been viewed by the Bush campaign as a possible pick-up. Bush even campaigned in the state this week, on Senate candidate George Nethercutt’s behalf. That said, Kerry has led in every statewide poll since Super Tuesday and it’s favored to remain a Blue state.