If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ve come to expect this. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday afternoon. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. Note: Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal released another one of its surveys, but as I’ve noted before, I have a real problem with its methodology. The data is below, but I kept it separate from other polls.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Arizona Republic — Bush 44, Kerry 41
Comment: Kerry has a real shot here — all the more reason to sue to keep Nader off the ballot. Gore lost Arizona by just 6 points in 2000, but that was without a single campaign appearance, a mistake Kerry won’t repeat. Keep in mind, Arizona has only backed the Dem candidate once in the last half-century (Clinton in ’96), and yet Kerry is obviously within striking distance.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 2
Comment: Every ARG poll in Florida for four months has shown Kerry with a 1-point lead or Bush with a 1-point lead. I guess this month, it’s Kerry’s turn. One key piece of data, however, is that Florida’s independents are siding with Kerry, 51 to 38.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 46, Bush 40, Nader 7
Comment: Quinnipiac has consistently shown this race much closer than other outlets, but even taking this poll at face value, Kerry’s lead is increasing (a Quinnipiac poll last month showed Kerry with a 3-point lead). Regardless, NJ polling has been all over the place. Some weeks Kerry’s up by double digits, some weeks he’s up by a few. Ultimately, Clinton won the Garden State by 18 points in 1996; Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000; and Kerry will win here this year.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Bush 47, Kerry 42 (or Bush 46, Kerry 40, Nader 4)
Comment: North Carolina is shaping up to be a very interesting state. Kerry is obviously keeping NC closer than Gore ever did, benefiting from a surprisingly large lead among the state’s independent voters (among whom Kerry leads by a whopping 53-27 margin). Bush’s lead is already modest, and it shrinks even more against a Kerry-Edwards ticket. But consider the narrow gap on its own — Gore lost NC by 13 points and now Bush’s lead over Kerry is just 5. That has to make Karl Rove nervous.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 43, Nader 2
Comment: This is the best news of the week, by far. A Kerry victory in Ohio would seal the deal and make him president. The internals showed Kerry with an encouraging 53-38 lead among Ohio’s self-identified independents, which seems to be happening everywhere. It’s a very good sign.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 60, Kerry 34
Comment: Why in the world would anyone commission a Bush-Kerry poll in Oklahoma? The state has gone with the GOP in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections and they weren’t particularly close. Kerry won’t give Oklahoma any real time or resources, of course, but the party does need to consider how best to help Rep. Brad Carson (D), who, for the time being, is leading in a tough Senate campaign.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Moore Information — Kerry 44, Bush 39
Comment: Every week, Oregon polling seems to be about the same. Kerry’s always leading by somewhere between four and six points. That’s fine, of course, and probably to be expected given Gore’s very narrow victory here in 2000 (winning by just 7,000 votes). Keep in mind, though, that Dems have won four of the last four in the state. Polls like this one, coupled by Ron Wyden’s re-election campaign, give Dems reason to be optimistic.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 43 (or Kerry 44, Bush 43, Nader 7)
Comment: It’s polls like this one that make Dems apoplectic about Nader. Bush has practically lived in PA for the last four years and has inundated its airwaves with deceptive attack ads. And even after all this, Kerry leads by six in a head-to-head match-up, which has to drive BC04 crazy. Nader’s numbers are nearly panic inducing, but let’s not forget that Nader only won 2% of Pennsylvania’s vote four years ago — and there’s no way that number will more than triple this year.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 51, Kerry 41
Comment: Months ago, I told a friend several reasons why I thought Tennessee could be competitive this year, and so far, it hasn’t worked out at all. Just about every poll since has shown Bush with a significant lead. Oh well.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 3
Comment: That’s three weeks in a row in which a major poll has shown Kerry with a narrow lead. I’ll take it; the preceding couple of months showed Bush with a narrow lead. Might this traditional Dem state — WV backed the Dem in 14 of the previous 17 elections before 2000 — be prepared to return to its roots? I’m starting to think so.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Badger Poll — Bush 46, Kerry 42, Nader 5
Comment: The Nader threat continues to be as serious here as anywhere. Wisconsin should be a Blue state, having gone with the Dem in four of the last four (Dukakis even won by a comfortable margin). But if Nader’s support grows beyond 2000’s 3.6%, it coud be a real problem.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
Regardless, data is data so I’m passing it along. Just be sure to consider the numbers with a grain of salt.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Bush 44.7, Kerry 46.8, Nader 2.1
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Bush 50.3, Kerry 46.1, Nader 0.5
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.9, Bush 46.8, Nader 1.9
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Bush 46.8, Kerry 46.1, Nader 2.3
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.8, Bush 45.2, Nader 2.5
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Bush 48.6, Kerry 47.9, Nader 1
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Bush 47.3, Kerry 44.8, Nader 4.4
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 46.2, Bush 42.9, Nader 1.7
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.1, Bush 43.2, Nader 1.4
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 50.5, Kerry 45.1, Nader 0.9
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.9, Bush 44.3, Nader 1.2
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.7, Bush 44.7, Nader 1.5
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Bush 57.4, Kerry 38.6, Nader 0.8
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.6, Bush 45.2, Nader 1
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 49.1, Kerry 43.1, Nader 1.4
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.6, Bush 46.2, Nader 0.7