If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you know it’s time for Poll Day. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday afternoon. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
KAET — Bush 47, Kerry 35, Nader 2
Comment: We can only hope this is an outlier; by all indications it is. Just a week ago, the Arizona Republic published a poll, which had a larger sample and lower margin of error, showing Kerry closing the gap to just three points. In fact, every poll in Arizona this year has shown Bush with a narrow, single-digit lead. What are the chances Bush’s support would suddenly blossom statewide? Not likely.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Denver Post — Bush 48, Kerry 43
Comment: This continues to look like a possible Dem pickup. Bush beat Gore in Colorado by 8 points and all of the recent polls show Kerry even closer this year. Keep an eye on this one, especially as Kerry continues to focus advertising money on the state.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 50, Bush 32, Nader 9
Comment: Wow, Bush’s support is officially below one-third in the state he was born in.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 46, Bush 44 (or Kerry 43, Bush 43, Nader 5)
Comment: More rhetorical ammunition for those of us who know Nader has the capacity to ruin this election. That said, it is encouraging to see Kerry leading by 2 in a head-to-head match-up.
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Bellwether Research — Bush 52, Kerry 36
Comment: I’m not entirely sure why anyone would poll Indiana. Bush won here by 15 points in 2000 and the state has backed the GOP candidate in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections. It’s Red.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Strategic Marketing — Kerry 44, Bush 41, Nader 5
Comment: This seems like another outlier. Other recent polls in Miane showed Kerry with a double-digit lead and there’s no reason to explain how or why Bush could have suddenly closed that gap.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 51, Bush 41
Comment: This is very encouraging. BC04 seems to believe it can help keep the state competitive, but with support from a popular Dem governor, two well-liked Dem senators, and polls like this one, Michigan will almost certainly stay Blue.
Mississippi (6 electoral votes)
Mississippi State — Bush 61, Kerry 30
Comment: I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that Mississippi won’t be targeted much this year. It’s backed the GOP in each of the last five cycles, generally by larger margins than the race before it. Gore lost here by 17 points four years ago; it’s almost certain Kerry will do far worse this year.