It’s time for my every-Friday feature — your favorite and mine — Poll Day. As always, these state-by-state poll results were released within the last seven days. Just as an aside, note that Rasmussen, which has been busy lately, does not include Nader in any of its surveys, even in states where his name will likely appear on the ballot. Something to keep in mind.
California (55 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 52, Bush 38
Comment: California won’t be competitive this year and, unlike 2000, Bush won’t even try to win here. This means, with four months before Election Day, Kerry already has one-fifth of the electoral votes he needs to be president. Nice.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Comment: Edwards always polled very well in Florida and these numbers came out the day after he made the ticket. It’s the largest lead either candidate has had in Florida this year, so we can only hope it continues.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 44
Comment: There’s reason to be optimistic about Iowa. It was one of the nation’s closest states in 2000 (Gore won by just 0.3%), but virtually every poll since the caucuses have shown Kerry with a lead here.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 45
Comment: Maine is starting to make me a little nervous. For months, Kerry enjoyed double-digit leads and the state looked like a lock. Now, two weeks in a row, Kerry’s lead is in the low single-digits. I can’t think of a rational explanation.
Massachusetts (12 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 60, Bush 31
Comment: Duh.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 51, Bush 43 (or Kerry 50, Bush 43, Nader 5)
Detroit News — Bush 44, Kerry 43, Nader 5
EPIC/MRA — Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 3
Comment: For what it’s worth, the Detroit News poll, the only one that shows Bush leading, had a smaller sample and larger margin of error. I know BC04 thinks it can help keep Michigan competitive, but the average of all the recent polls shows Kerry with a fairly comfortable lead. With support from a popular Dem governor and two well-liked Dem senators, Michigan will almost certainly stay Blue.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 44
Comment: Virtually every poll for months has shown Bush in the lead in Missouri. Maybe this will be the election in which it loses its reputation as a bellweather.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 41
Comment: There have been many (too many) stories lately suggesting NJ is in play. Polls like this one reinforce why I don’t believe them. Clinton won the Garden State by 18 points in 1996; Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000. It’s Blue.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 51, Bush 43 (or Kerry 49, Bush 42, Nader 6)
Comment: This is probably the week’s most encouraging poll. New Mexico was even closer than Florida in 2000 (a 366 vote margin vs a 537 margin in FL) and the GOP is targeting the state heavily this year. Kerry’s comfortable lead here suggests it’ll be one less state to worry about.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 42
Comment: Big caveat — this was before Edwards was tapped for the ticket. As a result, this poll has very little value right now. Still, I’ve been encouraged by months of data showing NC in the mid-single digits. And based on the Bush campaign’s decision to start advertising on the state’s airwaves, one has to assume BC04’s internal polls show a state that is very competitive right now.
Texas (34 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 55, Kerry 37
Comment: Sure, Texas won’t be interesting this year, or any year for the forseeable future. But I can’t help but note that Bush’s lead in his home state is only 18 points, while Kerry’s lead in his home state is 29 points. Could Texans be tiring of this Connecticut transplant? Probably not, but a guy can dream.