If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ve come to expect this. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday afternoon. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days, and this week features one of the longest lists since I started doing this. Note: Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal released another one of its surveys, but as I’ve noted before, I have some concerns about its methodology. The data is below, but I kept it separate from other polls.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 53, Kerry 41
Rocky Mountain Poll — Bush 48, Kerry 36
Comment: Ouch. No wonder Kerry pulled his ads from Arizona this week; he’s getting clobbered. Maybe Bush got a boost from McCain’s recent efforts. The odd thing is, for months, Bush has enjoyed a narrow lead in Arizona (a traditionally GOP state). In fact, less than a month ago, the Arizona Republic published a poll showing Kerry closing the gap to just three points.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 49, Kerry 47
Comment: This has to just drive BC04 crazy. Bush carried Arkansas after a little effort in 2000 and assumes he’ll take it again this year against a candidate from Massachusetts. And yet, every poll for months has shown this state much closer than everyone predicted. Keep an eye on Arkansas.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 47, Bush 44
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 3
Comment: Not only is it nice to see Kerry leading by three in the nation’s most important electoral state, but the last SUSA poll in Florida showed Bush with a seven-point lead. In the ARG poll, this is Kerry’s biggest lead over Bush since Super Tuesday, while Bush’s support is the lowest it’s been since March. If Kerry wins Florida, he wins the keys to the White House.
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Market Research Informatics — Bush 46, Kerry 27
Comment: Why is anyone commissioning polls in Indiana? Bush won here by 15 points in 2000 and the state has backed the GOP candidate in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections. It’s Red.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 44
Hubert Humphrey Institute — Kerry 50, Bush 46
Comment: Rasmussen did a few all-of-June polls and this is one of them. In general, I don’t care for month-long data and that’s particularly true of June, which doesn’t include post-Edwards announcement data. Nevertheless, it’s encouraging to see Kerry with a four-point lead in both of these polls. Iowa was one of the nation’s closest states in 2000 (Gore won by just 0.3%), but almost every poll since the caucuses have shown Kerry with a consistent lead.
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 56, Kerry 36
Comment: Do you know how many times the Dem candidate has won Kansas in the last nine elections? Zero. How many were close? Zero. Gore lost by 21 points four years ago; this year will be more of the same.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 44
Comment: The bad news is Kerry’s lead in this one is only two points. The good news is the last time Rasmussen did a poll in Michigan, Bush led by seven. I continue to strongly believe that support from a popular Dem governor and two well-liked Dem senators will almost certainly keep Michigan Blue.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Hubert Humphrey Institute — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Comment: Nearly all of the polls for months have shown Kerry leading by about the same margin. Considering how close Minnesota was in 2000, both campaigns will fight to keep it in play. Still, it’s worth noting that Minnesota is the only state in the nation to back the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 48, Kerry 46
Comment: Virtually every poll for months has shown Bush in the lead in Missouri. I’m actually fairly encouraged that the margin is only two points here.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
USAT/CNN/Gallup — Bush 54, Kerry 39, Nader 4
Mason-Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Comment: OK, let’s talk about North Carolina for a moment. When the Gallup data came out this week, it was seen as a sure sign that Edwards wasn’t helping Kerry in Edwards’ home state. Then the Mason-Dixon data showed Kerry closing the gap even more (Mason-Dixon showed Bush with a seven-point lead in May, now it’s three). My friend Tom Schaller says the Gallup data “puts an end to the speculation” that the state may be competitive this year. I disagree. Not only does the Mason-Dixon poll show a very close race, but months of data shows Bush’s lead in NC in the mid-single digits. How about this: if Bush’s internal polls didn’t show North Carolina relatively close, then why is the Bush campaign spending money for TV advertising in the state?
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 46, Kerry 42
Comment: This is another one of those month-long polls I don’t like. Most other polls show Kerry much closer, if not leading, in Ohio; plus, it was conducted before Edwards was tapped for the ticket.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Quinnipiac — Kerry 46, Bush 41, Nader 5
Comment: Bush has practically lived in PA for the last four years and has inundated its airwaves with deceptive attack ads. And even after all this, Kerry leads in these, and most other, statewide polls. Also note, Rasmussen showed Bush with a one-point lead in PA last month; now it shows Kerry up by five. Very encouraging.
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 51, Kerry 44
Comment: Over the last five presidential campaign cycles, South Carolina has become one of the most reliable GOP states in the nation, right up there with Utah. Bush beat Gore here four years ago by 16 points without even trying. With that in mind, seeing Kerry trailing by only seven is remarkable.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 50, Kerry 45
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Comment: The media laughted when Kerry started buying TV air time in Virginia because the conventional wisdom is that it’s solid Red. The media was wrong. Kerry’s looking surprisingly strong here and Edwards will only help bolster his chances. I don’t actually expect VA to go Blue, but it’s great to see the GOP have to work for it.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin — Kerry 49, Bush 41
Comment: These results come by way of a Democratic pollster, so you may want to take the results with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, the numbers are more-or-less in line with other recent polling from the state showing Kerry leading in the mid-single digits. Expect it to stay Blue.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Hubert Humphrey Institute — Bush 48, Kerry 46
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 44 (or Kerry 48, Bush 42, Nader 4)
Comment: There’s talk that BC04 considers Wisconsin this year’s West Virginia (traditional Dem states that can be flipped) and the Humphrey poll hints that they’re onto something. And yet, the polls for the state have been all over the place. Most outlets show Kerry in the lead — indeed, the ARG poll shows Kerry’s lead getting bigger over the last few months. Wisconsin should be a Blue state, having gone with the Dem in four of the last four (Dukakis even won by a comfortable margin), but Kerry will probably have to fight for it this year. And if Nader’s support grows beyond 2000’s 3.6%, it coud be a real problem.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
That said, we can only hope these results are accurate, because they’re pointing to a Kerry landslide.
Presuming that all the states go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Kerry would get 322 electoral votes and Mr. Bush would get 205.
In any event, here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Bush 46.7, Kerry 44.5, Nader 4.4
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.8, Bush 44.2, Nader 2.9
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.3, Bush 46.7, Nader 1.9
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 50, Bush 44.1, Nader 1.9
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.3, Bush 44.1, Nader 2
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.1, Bush 46.8, Nader 0.7
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Bush 45.1, Kerry 43.3, Nader 5.9
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.3, Bush 40.3, Nader 0.8
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.4, Bush 42.1, Nader 2.9
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.6, Bush 47.9, Nader 0.8
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.6, Bush 42.4, Nader 2.3
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.2, Bush 44.9, Nader 0.9
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Bush 47.5, Kerry 47.5, Nader 0.9
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.6, Bush 44.4, Nader 0.8
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 51, Kerry 42.8, Nader 0.5
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.3, Bush 43.9, Nader 0.7