It’s time for my every-Friday feature — your favorite and mine — Poll Day. As always, these state-by-state presidential poll results were released within the last seven days. Pay particular attention to Arizona, Missouri, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, where there’s some very encouraging news.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
KAET/Arizona State — Kerry 42, Bush 41
The same poll showed Bush with a 12-point lead in mid-June.
Comment: Now that’s more like it. The past two weeks have shown Bush making strides in this key swing state. Ariz. Dems that I’ve talked to were convinced the polls were wrong — crowds have been strong, fundraising on the rise, volunteers streaming in, etc. This poll suggests the state remains very much in play and could be a major Dem pickup.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Bush 48, Kerry 46
Sayfie — Kerry 46, Bush 46
LA Times — Bush 45, Kerry 44, Nader 2
Comment: All of these polls simply show what we’ve all known for months: Florida is now and will continue to be down to the wire.
Massachusetts (12 electoral votes)
Suffolk University — Kerry 59, Bush 30
Comment: You know, it costs money to put a poll in the field. Who’s fronting the cash to call respondents in Massachusetts?
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Minnesota Public Radio — Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 2
Comment: Most MN polling has been pretty consistent, with Kerry leading by a little, and Nader doing just well enough to risk screwing everything up. Minnesota was very close was in 2000 and both campaigns will fight to keep it in play this year. Still, it’s worth noting that Minnesota is the only state in the nation to back the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Kansas City Star — Kerry 46, Bush 44, Nader 1
Comment: This may be the biggest surprise of the week. Missouri polling has been showing Bush with a consistent lead, until this week. It’s extremely encouraging. The internals showed Kerry’s boost may be due to his running mate. Missourians disapprove of Cheney (39-41 favorable), but love Edwards (51-20 favorable).
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Granite State Poll — Kerry 50, Bush 45
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 3
Comment: The most likely Dem pickup this year continues to look good for Kerry. Now, if only it had more than 4 electoral votes.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Sienna Research — Kerry 51, Bush 29
Comment: Bush’s approval rating in NY is down to 32 percent. Wow.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
News and Observer/Research 2000 — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Comment: Week after week, poll after poll, Kerry remains within striking distance. Easley (D) looks poised to win re-election in the governor’s race, Bowles (D) is looking strong in the Senate race, and I continue to believe Kerry/Edwards can make a go of it here.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Bush 48, Kerry 43, Nader 1
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 3
Comment: The Strategic Vision poll has all the makings of an outlier. Every recent poll has shown the opposite trend — Kerry gaining, if not leading, in Ohio. For this reason, the ARG poll seems far more reliable, and not just because I like its results better.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Tulsa World/Consumer Logic — Bush 59, Kerry 35
Comment: The state has gone with the GOP in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections — and they weren’t particularly close. Kerry won’t give Oklahoma any real time or resources, of course, but the party does need to consider how best to help Rep. Brad Carson (D), who, for the time being, is leading in a very tough Senate campaign.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 50, Bush 42, Nader 4
Comment: After a photo finish in 2000 (Gore won by 7,000 votes), a lot of eyes have been on Oregon. And while polling in the Spring showed another close race, Kerry seems to have opened things up a bit of late. A few more polls like this one and Bush may have to give up on the state altogether.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
LA Times — Kerry 48, Bush 38, Nader 5
Comment: I hate to say it, but this sounds almost too good to be true. Bush has practically lived in PA for the last four years and has inundated its airwaves with deceptive attack ads. For months, most polls have shown Kerry leading in the low- to mid-single digits. If Kerry really is leading by 10, it’s tremendous news and suggests the Dems won’t have to invest as much to keep the state Blue. But I find it a little hard to believe.