If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ve hopefully come to expect this. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday afternoon. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. This week is a little less useful since it won’t include any post-convention numbers, but here’s the data anyway.
Note: Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal released another one of its surveys, but as I’ve noted before, I have some concerns about its methodology. The data is below, but I kept it separate from the other polls.
California (55 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 52, Bush 41
Survey USA — Kerry 53, Bush 41, Nader 3
Comment: I’m really not sure why anyone would poll California right now. Bush is incredibly unpopular statewide and the only suspense will be Kerry’s margin of victory.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Gallup — Bush 50, Kerry 46, Nader 1
Research 2000 — Kerry 49, Bush 44
Comment: Now here’s some odd data, which should be expected considering the state in question. R2000 has Kerry with one of his biggest Florida leads of this campaign year, while Gallup has Bush with one of his biggest state leads this year. All of this merely reinforces the fact that no one has any idea what’s going on in the Sunshine State.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
The Iowa Poll — Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 2
Strategic Vision — Kerry 48, Bush 46
American Research Group — Kerry 46, Bush 46, Nader 2
Comment: Iowa is going to be highly competitive again. It was one of the nation’s closest states in 2000 (Gore won by just 0.3%), but until this week, most polls since the caucuses have shown Kerry with a consistent lead. If this week’s data is accurate, Iowa will obviously be in play through November.
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 52, Kerry 42
Comment: I’m actually surprised it’s this close. After Clinton carried Kentucky in the ’90s, Bush crushed Gore by 15 points four years ago. It’ll probably stay Red, but I suspect Bush’s margin won’t be as clear this time around.
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
Marketing Research Institute — Bush 54, Kerry 38
Comment: OK, maybe Louisiana won’t be competitive this year. Last month, Kerry had closed the gap to just six points after spending some money on statewide TV ads. So, either the MRI data is an outlier or this traditionally conservative Dem state will be backing Bush again.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 48, Bush 47
Comment: Keep in mind, Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm. That said, most MN polling has been pretty consistent, with Kerry leading by a little, and Nader doing just well enough to risk screwing everything up. Minnesota was very close was in 2000 and both campaigns will fight to keep it in play this year. Still, it’s worth noting that Minnesota is the only state in the nation to back the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Gallup — Kerry 47, Bush 47, Nader 3
Comment: After months of polls showing a Bush lead, the last several weeks have offered encouraging data showing Kerry very competitive in Missouri. This has to make Bush nervous.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Comment: Now here’s a very pleasant surprise. Nevada is one of the nation’s fastest growing states and is also a key Dem pickup opportunity. Kerry is investing heavily in the state and it appears to be paying off. And let’s not forget, despite the state’s historic GOP leanings, Clinton won Nevada twice.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Fairleigh Dickinson — Kerry 45, Bush 43
Comment: Once again, NJ confounds. Some months, Kerry’s up by double digits, the next month his lead is miniscule. It’s worth noting that there were similar patterns in 2000, right before Gore cruised to an easy victory. Clinton won the Garden State by 18 points in 1996, Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000, and I have to assume it’ll stay Blue this year.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 51, Kerry 44
Comment: Week after week, poll after poll, Kerry remains within striking distance. Remember, Bush beat Gore here by 13 points. Nearly every poll for the past couple of months has shown Bush’s lead as at least half that. Keep an eye on NC.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Gallup — Kerry 48, Bush 43, Nader 5
Columbus Dispatch — Bush 47, Kerry 44, Nader 2
Comment: Ohio polls are all over the place. If you were to group all the data from the last month or so together, Kerry is clearly moving in the right direction. Stay tuned.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 3
Comment: Like Missouri, Bush maintained a small but steady lead in WV through the spring and early-summer. Of late, the roles have reversed and Kerry has been leading in every poll since early June. Might this traditional Dem state — WV backed the Dem in 14 of the previous 17 elections before 2000 — be prepared to return to its roots? I’m starting to think so.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
But, as with previous Zogby/WSJ results, we can only hope that the data is largely accurate. Even exclusing the three closest battleground contests (Florida, Missouri, and Nevada), Kerry is leading Bush in electoral votes by a healthy margin — 275 to 220.
In any event, reliable or not, here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Bush 47.4, Kerry 44.6, Nader 2
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Bush 48.5, Kerry 48.4, Nader 0.9
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.3, Bush 47.5, Nader 0.6
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.6, Bush 43.9, Nader 1.3
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.6, Bush 44.2, Nader 1.7
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.8, Bush 48.1, Nader 1.5
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 46.8, Bush 46.2, Nader 0.6
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 47.3, Bush 42.7, Nader 3.1
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 52, Bush 42.2, Nader 0.9
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 46.8, Kerry 48.1, Nader 1.2
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 52, Bush 42.8, Nader 1.1
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.8, Bush 45.3, Nader 0.9
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.1, Bush 46.9, Nader 0.6
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 52, Bush 44.4, Nader 1.5
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 47.9, Kerry 44, Nader 2.1
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.3, Bush 46, Nader 0.7