If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ve hopefully come to expect this. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday afternoon. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days and this week’s a big one.
This week reflects a lot of post-convention numbers, many of which are very encouraging. Pay particular attention to the growing Kerry leads in Florida, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and Kerry’s ability to make several races throughout the South (Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia) far closer than most expected.
Also, a few notes about outlets. Rasmussen produced several of this week’s results, but it never includes Nader in any of its surveys. (For that matter, even outlets that do include Nader don’t always account for whether or not he’ll be on the ballot.) Also note that Strategic Vision, which has also been quite busy lately, is a Republican polling company.
And finally, we have the sixth installment of the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Capital Survey Research — Bush 56, Kerry 33
Comment: Interesting polling tidbit: Alabama is less competitive than Texas. True story.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 46, Kerry 46
Comment: No wonder Cheney’s been spending so much time in Arkansas lately; BC04 is worried — and they have every reason to be. Bush carried Arkansas after a little effort in 2000 and assumes he’ll take it again this year. And yet, every poll for months has shown this state to be awfully close and now it’s all tied up. Also note, Kerry may get an added boost from Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D) re-election campaign, in which the GOP isn’t putting up much of a fight. Arkansas may wind up being more important than expected so keep a close eye on it.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Arizona Republic — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Comment: Now that Nader’s been disqualified from the Arizona ballot, it’s the two-person race we’ve been looking for. While a month ago, there was some data suggesting that Bush was pulling away, now we’re seeing Kerry close the gap. Gore lost Arizona by just 6 points in 2000, but that was without a single campaign appearance, a mistake Kerry won’t repeat. Keep in mind, Arizona has only backed the Dem candidate once in the last half-century (Clinton in ’96), and yet Kerry is obviously within striking distance.
California (55 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 55, Bush 37
Field Poll — Kerry 51, Bush 40
Comment: Let’s put it this way — California will be about as competitive as Alabama (but with six times as many electoral votes).
Florida (27 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 50, Bush 43, Nader 2
Comment: This is the poll that should make Karl Rove break out in a cold sweat. There’s no good news for Bush here. It’s the largest lead either candidate has had since the primaries and its part of a trend — Kerry was up by one in June, three in July, and now seven in August. Just as significantly, Kerry’s lead among Florida’s independents is now 10 points (51-41). Floridians are liking Kerry more and more (favorable rating up to 54% — an all-time high), while they’re liking Bush less and less (unfavorable rating up to 48% — also an all-time high).
Georgia (15 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Bush 52, Kerry 43
Rasmussen — Bush 53, Kerry 42
Comment: OK, no reasonable person expects Georgia to be in play this year. That said, I was heartened — just a little — to see the SV poll showing Kerry within single digits. Call it a moral victory.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 54, Bush 39
Comment: I really hope poor Alan Keyes isn’t counting on a coattail effect from the top of the GOP ticket cause there won’t be one in this state. Kerry’s lead just keeps getting bigger.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 45
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Comment: These are small leads, but encouraging anyway. Iowa, especially this week, has become a serious battleground state. These polls confirm what most Iowa polls have shown for over a month: Kerry leading by about three. It was one of the nation’s closest states in 2000 (Gore won by just 0.3%), so I’ll take it.
Massachusetts (12 electoral votes)
Merrimack — Kerry 56, Bush 30, Nader 3
Comment: You know, for some reason, pollsters have surveyed Massachusetts three of the last five weeks. What are these people thinking?
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 42
Survey USA — Kerry 52, Bush 41
Comment: These are some of the biggest leads Kerry has enjoyed in this state for a while. If this keeps up, it will no longer be considered a “battleground” state, if it ever should have been to begin with.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 49, Bush 42
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Comment: Like its regional brethren in Iowa and Michigan, Kerry seems to be enjoying bigger leads in Minnesota. The race was narrow-thin in 2000 and several recent polls have suggested it would be just as close this year. This week’s data may reflect some growing post-convention momentum for Kerry. (And don’t forget, Minnesota is the only state in the nation to back the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections.)
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 50, Kerry 46
Comment: Most Missouri polling from recent weeks showed Kerry inching ahead, so this may seem discouraging. However, take note of the fact that this Rasmussen poll spanned the entire month of July, so it’s not quite as reliable and hardly reflects post-convention momentum.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 42, Nader 2
Comment: Like Florida, all the news in New Hampshire is bad for Bush. Kerry’s seven-point margin is the largest lead either candidate has had here since the primaries. It’s also part of a trend — Bush was up by five in April, Kerry was up by two in July, and now the lead is seven. Kerry’s lead among NH’s independents is now a stunning 17 points (57-34). And voters in New Hampshire are liking Kerry more and more (favorable rating up to 52% — an all-time high), while they’re liking Bush less and less (unfavorable rating up to 49% — also an all-time high).
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 36, Nader 6
Comment: This is more like it. There have been sporadic polls showing NJ uncomfortably close lately. Indeed, in a Quinnipiac poll conducted in June, Kerry’s lead was just six points; now it’s more than double that. New Jersey won’t be in play this year.
New Mexico (6 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 43, Badnarik 5
Comment: It’s starting to look as though this swing state is becoming less and less likely to flip this year. Gore won New Mexico by just 366 votes in 2000, but lately, Kerry has enjoyed steady and consistent leads in the mid-to-high single digits. And, the Badnarik Libertarian campaign, which wants to play a larger role this year, may help balance any Nader effects here.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 50, Kerry 45
Comment: Week after week, NC is closer than expected. A similar Rasmussen poll in June showed Bush up by seven, now it’s down to five. Keep in mind, Bush beat Gore here by 13 points. Yet nearly every poll for the past couple of months has shown Bush’s lead at least half that, if not even better. Oddly enough, Kerry may enjoy some reverse coattails as Easley (D) looks poised to win re-election in the governor’s race and Bowles (D) is looking strong in the Senate race. Keep an eye on NC.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Bush 49, Kerry 45
Comment: This shows Bush with his biggest Ohio lead in a while, but it is a Republican pollster. The truth is, over the last month or so, for every poll showing Bush up by a few, there’s another showing Kerry up by the same margin. Stay tuned.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 53, Bush 41
Strategic Vision — Kerry 51, Bush 43
Comment: After months of deceptive campaign ads, and nearly four years of constant appearances, Bush has clearly not impressed the people of Pennsylvania. In fact, Kerry seems to keep getting stronger here. A few months ago, they were tied. In the early summer, Kerry opened up a small lead. Now the margin is hovering around double digits. Indeed, in a June SUSA poll, Kerry was leading by one point; now it’s 12. I know this is the Blue state Bush wants most, but he may have to look elsewhere.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 48, Kerry 46
Comment: No wonder Edwards is campaigning in Tennessee today; all of a sudden, it’s in play. In a June SUSA poll, Bush was up by 10. Now, it’s down to 2. And if Bush has to fight to win in Tennessee, he’s in a really tough spot everywhere.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 46
Comment: The Kerry campaign seemed to see an opportunity here before anyone else did. In the late-spring, they started a modest TV campign and the pundits laughed. Who’s laughing now? This poll isn’t an outlier either; several recent polls show Bush’s Virginia lead dwindling to the low-to-mid single digits. Considering that Bush cruised to victory here in 2000, few saw this coming.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 43
Comment: Here’s another state that probably no longer belongs in the up-for-grabs category. Nearly every poll for months has shown Kerry up and the lead keeps getting bigger. For example, a June SUSA had Kerry leading by 5, now it’s up to 8. Expect it to stay Blue.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Comment: After Pennsylvania, this is the state BC04 is most anxious to flip from Blue to Red. Perhaps most problematic, the Nader threat continues to be as serious here as anywhere. Wisconsin should be a Blue state, having gone with the Dem in four of the last four (Dukakis even won by a comfortable margin), but polls like this one show it will probably go down to the wire. If Nader’s support grows beyond 2000’s 3%, it coud be a real problem.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
But, as with previous Zogby/WSJ results, we can only hope that the data is largely accurate.
John Kerry saw slightly stronger support among likely voters in 16 battleground states during the Democratic National Convention, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll. Mr. Kerry now leads in 13 states, up from the 12 states he held a week ago, while President Bush leads in three states.
Presuming that all the states go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Bush would get 220 votes in the Electoral College and Mr. Kerry would get 318. Excluding the 32 total electoral votes from four states considered too close to call, Mr. Bush would get 215 votes and Mr. Kerry, 291.
Of course, one needs 270 to win.
Here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Bush 47.9, Kerry 46.4, Nader 0.5
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.5, Bush 46.7, Nader 2.0
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.0, Bush 46.1, Nader 0.6
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.1, Bush 44.6, Nader 1.2
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.8, Bush 43.7, Nader 1.2
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.8, Bush 48.2, Nader 0.8
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Bush 46.0, Kerry 45.4, Nader 1.1
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.7, Bush 41.8, Nader 2.3
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.1, Bush 47.6, Nader 0.5
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 51.1, Kerry 46.1, Nader 1.0
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.9, Bush 45.9, Nader 2.0
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.7, Bush 44.7, Nader 0.7
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.3, Bush 47.5, Nader 0.6
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.6, Bush 44.8, Nader 1.2
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 47.6, Bush 44.2, Nader 2.1
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.7, Bush 47.8, Nader 0.2