If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ve hopefully come to expect this. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday afternoon. It’s my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. This week isn’t quite as big as last week, but there’s still some encouraging data that suggests Kerry is enjoying a post-convention bounce (particularly in Florida, Michigan, and New Jersey).
Lots of insiders — ABC’s The Note, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, etc — have predicted whoever wins two out of three among Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will be president. Right now, Kerry leads in all three.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 45
Quinnipiac — Kerry 47, Bush 41, Nader 4
Comment: Kerry and Bush have been going back and forth in Florida, each trading miniscule leads for months. Over the last few weeks, however, Kerry has looked stronger and stronger here. In June, Quinnipiac had Bush and Kerry tied at 43. Since then, Bush has gone down, Kerry’s gone up, and the lead is now six.
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
Star-Bulletin — Kerry 48, Bush 41
Comment: Wow, it’s an exceedingly rare poll out of Hawaii. The state has gone Dem easily in four of the last four elections, each by wide margins. The state GOP, believe it or not, has made considerable strides in recent years, but there’s virtually no chance at a Bush upset this year.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 44
Comment: Quirky Maine continues to be a little closer than it should be. It’s been competitive since mid-June, but Kerry’s lead seems to be pretty stable.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 44
EPIC/MRA — Kerry 49, Bush 42
Comment: Here’s another state that Bush has targeted, but in which Kerry’s lead continues to grow. If this keeps up, it will no longer be considered a “battleground” state, if it ever should have been to begin with.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 38
Star-Ledger/Eagleton — Kerry 52, Bush 32
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 40
Comment: There’s no reason to believe McGreevy’s resignation will have any significance here. Kerry’s lead was modest in the late-spring, early-summer, but has been gangbusters since. It’s Blue.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Columbus Dispatch — Bush 47, Kerry 44
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 45
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 45, Nader 2
Comment: Of all the major electoral prizes (states with 20 or more electoral votes), Ohio is easily the most competitive. The giddiness you hear is the sound of station managers across the state who know their ad revenue for the next three months will be a windfall.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Consumer Logic — Bush 59, Kerry 35
Comment: I have a hard time imagining why anyone would commission a presidential poll in Oklahoma. The state has gone with the GOP in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections — and they weren’t particularly close. Kerry won’t give Oklahoma any real time or resources, of course, but the party does need to consider how best to help Rep. Brad Carson (D), who, for the time being, is leading in a very tough Senate campaign.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 41
Comment: This is definitely consistent with all the recent polling in Oregon. It’s still considered a battleground state, largely because of the photo finish in 2000 (Gore won by 7,000 votes), but Kerry definitely seems to have opened things up a bit of late. A few more polls like this one and Bush may have to give up on the state altogether.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 45
Comment: It’s discouragingly close, but this poll has all the makings of an outlier. All the recent data from Pennsylvania shows Kerry with a sizable lead that’s been growing, not shrinking, since the early-summer. I know this is the Blue state Bush wants most, but I still think he may have to look elsewhere.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Rassmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 44
Comment: Every week seems to be about the same in Washington — Kerry’s lead is always in the mid- to high-single digit range. After the state’s relatively close finish in 2000 (Gore by 5%), Washington has been viewed by the Bush campaign as a possible pick-up. Don’t count on it.