If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the deal. It’s time for my weekly round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. This week includes a pretty long list, but there’s plenty of encouraging data worth checking out. Pay particular attention to “red” states that are surprisingly competitive (Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina) and Kerry continuing to enjoy small but steady leads in the key battlegrounds (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin).
One other note: Strategic Vision, which is the source for many of this week’s polls, is a Republican polling firm. Caveat emptor.
California (55 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 50, Bush 40
Public Policy Institute — Kerry 54, Bush 36
Comment: Yawn. California will be about as competitive as Massachusetts. Of course, the difference is, with California’s 55 electoral votes, Kerry is already one-fifth of the way to winning.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 47, Bush 47
Comment: Maybe we don’t want that proportional system after all (kidding). Colorado’s been increasingly Republican of late — Bush beat Gore here by 8 points — and yet here’s Kerry proving himself more-than-capable of competing in this GOP stronghold. This could be a stunning Dem pick-up.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 45, Bush 38, Nader 6
Comment: Get the feeling Bush is going to lose the state he was born in? I do.
Georgia (15 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Bush 54, Kerry 40
Comment: Georgia is rarely polled at the presidential level because no one considers it even remotely competitive. Clinton eked out a narrow victory in Georgia in 1992 and it won’t go “Blue” again for a very long time.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 47
Comment: One of the nation’s more competitive states in 2000 will apparently hold the honor again this year. Most of the recent polling has shown Kerry with a small but consistent lead, and given the circumstances (Gore won by just 0.3%), I’ll take it.
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 56, Kerry 39
Comment: Like Georgia, here’s another state that backed Clinton but won’t go “Blue” again anytime soon. Bush crushed Gore by 15 points here four years ago and it doesn’t appear to be much better this time around.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Gonzales Research — Kerry 53, Bush 40
Comment: It’s annoying governor aside, Maryland is as Dem a state as any in the country. It’s rarely polled because it’s outcome is already clear.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 44
Comment: This is one of the week’s more encouraging results, especially from a GOP pollster. The race was narrow-thin in 2000 and several recent polls have suggested it would be just as close here this year. This week’s data may reflect some growing post-convention momentum for Kerry. (And don’t forget, Minnesota is the only state in the nation to back the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections.)
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 48, Kerry 47
Comment: After months of polls showing a Bush lead, the last several weeks have offered encouraging data showing Kerry very competitive in Missouri. This has to make Bush nervous.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 47, Kerry 46
SurveyUSA — Bush 49, Kerry 46
Comment: More good news from the nation’s fastest growing state. Bush and Kerry have traded poll leads of late, but this merely shows how competitive it is after Bush’s narrow win in Nevada four years ago. And let’s not forget, despite the state’s historic GOP leanings, Clinton won Nevada twice.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 46, Badnarik 4
Comment: Once upon a time, New Mexico was a GOP stronghold. From 1968 to 1988, no Dem came close. Clinton changed that, winning it twice, before Gore carried it by a hair (366 votes) in 2000. This year, it’s poised to go down to the wire again, but unlike most battleground states, the Badnarik Libertarian campaign, which wants to play a larger role this year, may work against Bush even more than Nader works against Kerry.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 53, Bush 35
Comment: New Yorkers don’t like George Bush. Gore carried the state by 25 points four years ago and the only thing worth watching here is whether Kerry can match that.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Bush 48, Kerry 45
League of Conservation Voters — Bush 48, Kerry 44
Survey USA — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Comment: I know I say this every time, but North Carolina, week in and week out, continues to be far closer than anyone expected. Remember, Bush beat Gore here by 13 points, yet every poll for months has shown Bush’s lead in the low- to mid-single digits. Oddly enough, I continue to wonder if Kerry may enjoy some reverse coattails as Easley (D) looks poised to win re-election in the governor’s race and Bowles (D) is looking strong in the Senate race.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Gallup — Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 4
University of Cincinnati — Kerry 48, Bush 46
Comment: The Gallup poll’s data is radically different depending on how you look at it, but for those of us anxious for a Kerry victory, it’s a difference between good news and great news. The good news, Kerry’s up by two in a critical swing state (+3 without Nader), but that’s among likely voters statewide. If you expand the field to registered voters, Kerry’s lead really blossoms — +9 with Nader in the mix (Kerry 50, Bush 41, Nader 5), +10 head-to-head (Kerry 52, Bush 42). It’s unrealistic to think Kerry really enjoys a double-digit lead in Ohio right now, but nevertheless, this is the kind of data that will give Karl Rove a nervous twitch.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
NRSC — Bush 56, Kerrry 36
Survey USA — Bush 57, Kerry 38
Comment: The NSRC poll is tainted by a partisan GOP bias, but it really doesn’t matter; Oklahoma is about as competitive as Utah. In fact, I have a hard time imagining why anyone would commission a presidential poll in Oklahoma in the first place. The state has gone with the GOP in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections — and they weren’t particularly close. Kerry won’t give Oklahoma any real time or resources, but the party does need to consider how best to help Rep. Brad Carson (D), who is in a very tough Senate campaign.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 47, Bush 42, Nader 4
Franklin and Marshall — Kerry 48, Bush 42, Nader 3
Comment: Bush keeps pushing Pennsylvania, but he just can’t seem to catch up. The president has practically lived in PA for the last four years and has inundated its airwaves with deceptive attack ads. And even after all this, Kerry leads by six, which has to drive BC04 crazy.
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 53, Kerry 42
Comment: See Oklahoma and replace Carson’s name with Inez Tenenbaum’s.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 49, Bush 42
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 43
Comment: Earlier in the year, it looked like Washington would be competitive again, but for the last several months, nearly every poll has been the same — Kerry leading in the high single-digits. It suggests that this is another state that probably shouldn’t be considered a “battleground” anymore.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Comment: ABC News’ “The Note” recently started a regular segment it calls the “Big Four” — Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — as the key states that will ultimately decide the election. Though Wisconsin has generally been “Blue,” having having gone with the Dem in four of the last four (even Dukakis won by a comfortable margin), polls like this one show why it’s getting so much attention. The undecided vote is Wisconsin is still quite large, and there’s still a big Nader factor out there, all of which make this a key battleground for the next three months.