I’m taking only my second day off of the year today. Sorry. But to make up for it, I’m still posting my every-Friday feature — your favorite and mine — Poll Day. As always, these state-by-state poll results were released within the last seven days. See you Monday.
California (55 electoral votes)
LA Times — Kerry 49, Bush 39, Nader 6
Comment: A 10-point lead, even with Nader? I guess Bush isn’t benefiting from Schwarzenegger’s success. I almost wish it was a little closer in California so the Bush campaign may be tempted to waste some money there.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Comment: At first blush, Colorado looks like a solid “Red” state. It’s gone with the GOP in eight of the last nine presidential elections — usually by fairly wide margins — and it has a Republican governor and a big GOP majority in its congressional delegation. Yet I continue to believe that Colorado will be a surprisingly competitive state this year, in part because of polls like this one.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 47, Kerry 45
Comment: Bush had to fight fairly hard to win Arkansas in 2000 and it will likely be an even closer race this year. Kerry may benefit from Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D) re-election campaign, in which the GOP isn’t putting up much of a fight. To be sure, Karl Rove & Co. probably expected more than a two-point margin at this point.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 46, Kerry 41
Comment: It may have only 5 electoral votes, but West Virginia will be targeted by both sides this year. It’s still very much in play.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac University — Bush 45, Kerry 39, Nader 8
Comment: Don’t panic. Nader received just 2% support in Pennsylvania in 2000 and there’s no way that support will quintuple this year. In reality, this state is still very much a toss-up. A closer look at the same poll shows Kerry with a 48-39 lead among Pennsylvania’s self-identified independents. If he can keep up that margin, Kerry will do what the Dems have done in each of the last three presidential elections — win Pennsylvania.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Marist College — Kerry 56, Bush 38
Comment: Gore beat Bush in NY by a whopping 25 points in 2000. Can Kerry top that? Maybe.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Bush 47, Kerry 47 (with Nader — Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 3)
Comment: What did you expect? It’s Florida.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 39
Comment: Last week, a different poll showed New Jersey very close. Considering that Gore crushed Bush by 16 points in 2000, this poll seems to make more sense.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 47 (with Nader — Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 3)
Comment: Iowa is an odd one. After voting Republican in five consecutive elections between 1968 and 1984, the state has been trending “Blue.” Dukakis won easily here and Clinton won by double digits in 1996. In 1998, Iowans tapped their first Dem governor in 30 years (Tom Vilsack), and he was re-elected by a comfortable margin in 2002. In 2000, however, Iowa was one of the closest states in the Union, backing Gore by just 0.3%. The ARG poll suggests another very close race this year. If Vilsack is on the ticket, of course, the state won’t even be close.
And finally, in my non-state-poll addition of the week, a Harris Poll released this week came up with some of the most disappointing results I’ve seen in a while. A stunning 51% of respondents in the national poll still believe Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Making matters slightly worse, the same Harris Poll showed that 49% — a plurality — believe that there’s evidence linking Iraq to al Queda. The mind reels.
And people wonder why national political campaigns use vacuous, repetitive sound bites and attack ads to succeed. It’s the principal consequence of an uninformed electorate.