If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days. As you may have noticed, as we get closer to the election, we get more data.
This week’s data can best be described as “mixed.” While there’s some encouraging news from competitive “red” states (Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia) that are closer than expected, there’s less encouraging news from some “red” states that were moving in the right direction but now aren’t (Arizona, Ohio), and one downright awful report about a “blue” state in which Bush is beginning to take the lead (Wisconsin).
Also this week, we have the seventh installment of the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 37
Comment: Since it’s one of the least competitive states in the Union, I’m genuinely surprised anyone would bother putting a poll in the field. Interesting tidbit: Alabama is just as competitive as Texas. See below.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Arizona State/KAET — Bush 47, Kerry 39
Comment: This is a disappointing setback, and hopefully, an outlier. Most of the recent data showed Bush’s lead in Arizona to be razor-thin, if existent at all. Indeed, this time last month, Kerry enjoyed a small lead over Bush. I guess it’s safe to say there’s some fluidity to Arizona right now, but I’m not ready to right it off quite yet.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 47, Kerry 46
Comment: Cheney’s been campaigning in Arkansas a bit to try and boost Bush’s numbers, but this suggests it hasn’t had much of an effect. Bush carried Arkansas after a little effort in 2000 and assumes he’ll take it again this year, and yet, every poll for months has shown this state to be awfully close. Indeed, now it’s all tied up. Also note, Kerry may get an added boost from Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D) re-election campaign, in which the GOP isn’t putting up much of a fight.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 47
Comment: This is the second week in a row Colorado has been all tied up. Colorado’s been increasingly Republican over the last decade — Bush beat Gore here by 8 points — and yet Kerry’s proving himself more-than-capable of competing in this GOP stronghold.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Gallup — Bush 45, Kerry 45
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 47
Comment: Ironically, the poll that shows Kerry with a narrow edge is the one from a Republican pollster. Go figure. Of course, the fact that there are three polls — one showing Kerry with a narrow lead, one showing Bush with a narrow lead, and the other showing them tied — simply shows that all eyes will once again be on the Sunshine State on Election Day.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Chicago Tribune/WGN — Kerry 52, Bush 38
Comment: In a year in which nearly all of the Midwest is considered intensely competitive, Illinois is really the only Dem lock.
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Bellwether — Bush 52, Kerry 40
Comment: In a year in which nearly all of the Midwest is considered intensely competitive, Indiana is really the only GOP lock.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 49, Bush 44
Comment: Quirky Maine continues to be a closer than it should be. It’s been competitive since mid-June, but Kerry’s lead seems to be pretty stable. On a related note, Slate had a good item about Maine’s competitive status a few days ago.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 53, Bush 42
Comment: One of the most reliably “blue” states in the nation probably won’t even get a cursory campaign appearance. Even the state’s Republican governor said this week, “[Bush] should not, in all likelihood, come to Maryland. My advice to him is not to come to Maryland. … We’re not terribly competitive.”
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 45
Survey USA — Kerry 48, Bush 45
Comment: BC04 has been going all-out in Michigan lately and it seems to be paying off. Kerry still leads, but his margin is shrinking. Still, it’ll take a lot more to actually push the state into the GOP column.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
LA Times — Bush 46, Kerry 44
Comment: This is better news that it appears at first blush. The last LAT poll in Missouri showed Bush up by six, now the lead is two. Bush beat Gore here by 3% in 2000 and has held fairly significant leads for most of the year, so the fact that the race is getting tighter is good news, not bad.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Bush 44, Kerry 42
Comment: More good news from the nation’s fastest growing state. Bush and Kerry have been going back and forth the past few months, but this merely shows how competitive it is after Bush’s relatively narrow win in Nevada four years ago. BC04 is obviously worried; it’s hitting the state with misleading attack ads.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Kerry 52, Bush 41
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 39, Nader 4
Comment: I think it’s safe to say the McGreevey scandal is having absolutely no effect on the presidential race. Kerry’s lead, while narrow in the early summer, is now consistently in the double digits.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 42
Comment: Here’s another “blue” state that Bush has had his eye on — including a fresh round of campaign appearances — but his efforts don’t appear to be working. Kerry’s lead isn’t just consistent, it’s growing.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
LA Times — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Comment: The Swiftboat Liars are airing ads in three states — and this is one of them. It’s not that Bush is popular there; he’s not. His overall approval rating remains mired at 47% and 52% disapprove of his handling of the economy. With numbers like that, the state will remain competitive, but the vicious smear against Kerry seems to have had some effect.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 48, Bush 44
Issues PA — Kerry 45, Bush 43
Comment: Bush keeps pushing Pennsylvania, and while he hasn’t caught up, the race is tightening. The president has practically lived in PA for the last four years and has inundated its airwaves with deceptive attack ads since March. And even after all this, Kerry leads, which has to drive BC04 crazy.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 49, Kerry 45
Comment: The Kerry campaign seemed to see an opportunity here before anyone else did. In the late-spring, they started a modest TV campign and the pundits laughed. Who’s laughing now? This poll isn’t an outlier either; several recent polls show Bush’s Virginia lead dwindling to the low-to-mid single digits. Considering that Bush cruised to victory here in 2000, few saw this coming. If Virginia continues to be in play through the fall, it should be viewed as a sign of a bigger problem for Bush.
Texas (34 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 37
Comment: Let’s call the fact that Bush is below 60 in his home a “moral victory.”
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Strategic Vision — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Comment: Few states have been as reliable the past few months as Washington. Every week, a poll is released and the results are always the same — Kerry leads in the mid- to high-single digits. It suggests that this is another state that probably shouldn’t be considered a “battleground” anymore.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
LA Times — Bush 48, Kerry 44
Comment: Yep, another state where the Swiftboat Liars are on the air. Looking for the most competitive state Gore won in 2000? It’s not Pennsylvania, Iowa, or New Mexico, it’s Wisconsin. Though this has generally been a reliably “blue” state, having having gone with the Dem in four of the last four (even Dukakis won by a comfortable margin), the landscape has changed. Throw a strong Nader factor into the mix and this is one scary toss-up.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
But, as with previous Zogby/WSJ results, we can only hope that the data is largely accurate. Kerry now leads in 14 of the 16 states.
Here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.2, Bush 45.6, Nader 0.8
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.6, Bush 49, Nader 0.3
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.2, Bush 45.2, Nader 0.6
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.5, Bush 45.3, Nader 0.7
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.3, Bush 44.6, Nader 1
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.3, Bush 48.8, Nader 0.9
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 47.7, Bush 46, Nader 2.3
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.5, Bush 43.3, Nader 1.4
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.7, Bush 44.1, Nader 0.7
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 51.4, Kerry 45.8, Nader 0.8
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.9, Bush 42.6, Nader 1.5
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.3, Bush 44, Nader 1
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.6, Bush 47.7, Nader 0.3
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.1, Bush 44.7, Nader 0.6
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 49.3, Kerry 41.5, Nader 1.8
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.8, Bush 46.4, Nader 0.3