If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days.
The news this week isn’t quite as encouraging as I’d like. In polls taken almost immediately after Bush’s convention, Kerry has slipped in a few “red” battlegrounds that seemed competitive (Arizona, Missouri) and a few “blue” states where we were leading (Pennsylvania, New Mexico). There’s plenty of fluidity to these polls, however, as evidenced by significant changes between these results and similar polls from just a few weeks ago. In other words, sit tight; there’s plenty of time for the numbers to shift back in Kerry’s direction.
Also this week, we have the eighth installment of the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Arizona Republic — Bush 54, Kerry 38
California (55 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 42
Survey USA — Kerry 52, Bush 42
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 44
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 46, Kerry 46
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 42
Gallup — Bush 55, Kerry 41
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 46
Star-Ledger — Kerry 43, Bush 39
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Albuquerque Journal — Bush 45, Kerry 42, Nader 1, Badnarik 1
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 50, Kerry 46
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Gallup — Bush 52, Kerry 44
Survey USA — Bush 50, Kerry 47
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Zogby — Kerry 53%, Bush 43
Riley Research — Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 1
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Gallup — Bush 48, Kerry 47
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Gallup — Kerry 52, Bush 44, Nader 1
Strategic Vision — Kerry 48, Bush 45
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released earlier this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
But, as with previous Zogby/WSJ results, we can only hope that the data is largely accurate. Unlike most surveys that show Bush taking a modest lead nationwide, these results show Kerry leading in 12 of the 16 most important states.
Here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Bush 47.6, Kerry 45.9, Nader 0.6
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.4, Bush 49.1, Nader 0.6
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.6, Bush 46.9, Nader 0.8
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 52, Bush 45.4, Nader 0.7
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.3, Bush 43.5, Nader 2.8
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 48.9, Bush 48.5, Nader 1.1
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 47.4, Bush 46.8, Nader 1.6
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.5, Bush 44.8, Nader 1.2
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.6, Bush 43.9, Nader 1.1
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 53.8, Kerry 42.9, Nader 0.5
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.8, Bush 43.1, Nader 1.6
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.5, Bush 46.7, Nader 1
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Bush 53.2, Kerry 43.6, Nader 0.4
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.7, Bush 44.2, Nader 0.5
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 49.1, Kerry 40.1, Nader 2.1
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.9, Bush 47.5, Nader 0.1