If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days — a little something I call “Poll Day.”
As much as I enjoy going over the data, this week’s numbers are all, obviously, pre-debate. It’s too soon to know what’s going to happen, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Kerry get a boost in the polls out of last night’s performance and some fresh momentum for the final month of the race. I guess that’ll be something to look out for next week.
By the way, Lake Snell Perry, a source for a few states this week, is a Dem pollster, so I’ll issue the same note I do in reference to Strategic Vision’s Republican polls: caveat emptor.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Arizona State-KAET — Bush 49, Kerry 39
Comment: This is slightly worse than the eight-point lead Bush enjoyed in the same poll a month ago.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 51, Kerry 44
California (55 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 53, Bush 40
Delaware (3 electoral votes)
West Chester University — Kerry 45, Bush 37
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Chicago Tribune/WGN — Kerry 49, Bush 40
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Critical Insights — Kerry 45, Bush 42, Nader 3
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Inside Michigan Politics — Kerry 45, Bush 42
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 46
Montana (3 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 54, Kerry 36
Comment: With all due respect to this fine state, why commission a poll in Montana?
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 47, Kerry 45
Comment: Definitely one of the Red states to watch. Nevada may be a traditional GOP stronghold, but let’s not forget that Clinton won the state twice and Gore didn’t lose by much four years ago.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Concord Monitor — Kerry 46, Bush 46
Lake Snell Perry — Kerry 47, Bush 47
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Fairleigh Dickinson — Kerry 45, Bush 44
Comment: Dems are having to work a bit for it, but it’s staying Blue.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Sienna — Kerry 51, Bush 31
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Bush 50, Kerry 44
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Lake Snell Perry — Kerry 46, Bush 46
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Wilson Research — Bush 57, Kerry 31
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Kerry 50, Bush 43
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Philadelphia Inquirer — Kerry 49, Bush 47
Mason Dixon — Kerry 45, Bush 44
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Comment: Two weeks ago, Quinnipiac showed Bush up by one, so this is real progress in a critical state. It’s the first time in a while where everybody is showing Kerry up, which is encouraging. It’s a modest lead, but it’s a lead.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 43
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Harris — Bush 50, Kerry 40
Comment: Any time Wisconsin wants to come to its senses, that’d be great. The rest of us would sure appreciate it. By the way, did everyone notice that Kerry mentioned Wisconsin twice in last night’s debate? I don’t think it was a coincidence.