If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days — a little something I call “Poll Day.” Also this week, we have the 10th installment of the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.
There’s plenty to make Dems smile this week. Indeed, these are the first numbers to reflect Kerry’s post-debate bounce in earnest. Going through the states, it’s pretty easy to notice which polls were done before Bush and Kerry met in Miami and which ones were conducted after — just look for how big Kerry’s lead is.
Most of this week’s numbers are positive and encouraging. Iowa and New Mexico are finally back to Blue, Ohio is as competitive as it’s been since the early summer, and Pennsylvania is looking to be solid Kerry territory. And as usual, no one has a clue what’s going on in Florida.
One more side note for those of you who don’t want to wait until Friday afternoons to see state polls. My friend Bob is doing a tremendous job at 2.004k.com of keeping up-to-date state data available. He does a much better job of keeping track of these numbers than I do, so feel free to swing by his site and tell him Carpetbagger sent you.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 62, Kerry 34
Comment: Can we please stop polling Alabama now?
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Arizona Republic — Bush 48, Kerry 38
Comment: This poll, conducted after the Miami debate, looks bad at first blush. Sure, Kerry’s down by 10, which is hard to be happy about. On the other hand, Bush has lost 6 points of support over the last month and the number of undecideds has nearly doubled, from 7 points to 13. Ultimately, Kerry almost certainly won’t win here, but it’s encouraging to see Bush’s support drop so quickly in a state he’s supposed to win easily.
California (55 electoral votes)
Field Poll — Kerry 49, Bush 40
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Gallup — Kerry 49, Bush 49, Nader 1
Comment: Keep your eye on Colorado. Right now, it’s poised to be the west’s key battleground state. And with a ballot initiative on proportionate electoral vote allocation, election lawyers might as well start making hotel reservations in Denver now to beat the rush.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 51, Kerry 46
Rasmussen — Bush 51, Kerry 47
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 45
Mason-Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 44, Nader 2
Quinnipiac — Bush 51, Kerry 44
Strategic Vision — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Comment: What a shocker; Florida is still a toss-up. The only one of these polls that was done before the debate, by the way, was Rasmussen.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 52, Bush 41
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 39
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
University of Minnesota — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Survey USA — Kerry 48, Bush 47
Comment: Very good news. After a couple of months with small but steady Bush leads, Kerry, in two post-debate polls, has regained the lead. It’s only one point, but at this point, I’ll take it.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
University of Minnesota — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Comment: The good news is, Kerry’s up. The bad news is this state shouldn’t be anywhere near competitive and SUSA’s data suggests Bush may get 1 electoral vote from Maine’s strange electoral system.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Gonzales Research — Kerry 52, Bush 42
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 52, Bush 42
Comment: I know there was a poll at some point last week that showed Bush closing the gap in Michigan, but this poll seems far more reliable.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Hart Research — Kerry 50, Bush 43
Comment: It’s awfully nice to see Kerry get some distance here. A month ago, Minnesota was all tied up. It’s looking a lot better now.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 49, Kerry 47
Rasmussen — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 50, Kerry 46
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
University of New Hampshire — Bush 50, Kerry 45
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 47
Comment: The difference is, the ARG poll was done after the Miami debate and the UNH poll wasn’t.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Kerry 50, Bush 42
Survey USA — Kerry 50, Bush 45
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Fairleigh Dickinson — Kerry 49, Bush 41
Comment: The only one showing this really close is Quinnipiac — and it was the only one conducted before the Miami debate.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Albuquerque Journal — Kerry 46, Bush 43
Gallup — Bush 50, Kerry 47, Nader 2
Comment: At least as far as the Albuquerque Journal poll is concerned, this is a six point turn-around in one month for Kerry, due in large part to his success in the first debate.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 52, Kerry 45
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 47
Columbus Dispatch — Bush 51, Kerry 44
Survey USA — Kerry 49, Bush 48
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 47
Comment: Of these, the only two that were done after the Miami debate were SUSA and ARG — and those are the ones in which Kerry is leading.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Kerry 45, Bush 44
West Chester University — Kerry 50, Bush 43
Survey USA — Kerry 49, Bush 47
Franklin and Marshall — Kerry 48, Bush 41
Keystone — Kerry 49, Bush 43
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 46
Comment: Six polls, six Kerry leads, six surveys done after last week’s debate.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 39
Comment: All that stuff I said six months ago about Tennessee being more competitive this year? Yeah, never mind all that.
Texas (34 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 58, Kerry 37
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 54, Bush 43
Comment: This was done after the debate and it shows a huge boost over the last SUSA poll. Kerry is not only getting stronger, but Dems statewide (governor and Senate races) are showing bigger leads over their GOP rivals.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Gallup — Bush 49, Kerry 46, Nader 2
Comment: This may sound silly, but I consider this real progress. Recently, Bush’s lead has been at or near double digits. Kerry’s closing the gap.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
Nevertheless, we can only hope the data is largely accurate — these results show Kerry leading in 13 of the 16 most important states, up from 11 two weeks ago.
Here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Kerry 46.9, Bush 46.7, Nader 0.7
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Kerry 49.5, Bush 49.1, Nader 0.5
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.1, Bush 44.5, Nader 0.2
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 54.1, Bush 44.4, Nader 0.3
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.4, Bush 44.1 Nader 1.7
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Bush 49.8 , Kerry 47.6, Nader 1.3
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Bush 48.1, Kerry 47.1, Nader 0.9
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.5, Bush 43.9, Nader 1.7
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.9, Bush 42.5, Nader 1.7
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 49.1, Kerry 48.8, Nader 0.4
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.8, Bush 43.7, Nader 1.2
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.8, Bush 46.4, Nader 0.2
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Bush 48.7, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.0
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.7, Bush 43.8, Nader 0.7
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 50.1, Kerry 44, Nader 0.7
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 50.6, Bush 48.1, Nader 0.1