If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; we do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days — a little something I call “Poll Day.”
Like last week, there’s plenty here to make Kerry fans smile. Many of us were counting on the debates to turn this campaign around — and, at this point, that’s exactly what’s happened. This data was culled before the final debate, but in most instances includes the first two and the VP debate.
Most of the data is very encouraging. A few highlights include Arizona, which once seemed lost but is suddenly close again, Ohio, where at least one poll shows Kerry surging ahead, and Wisconsin, showing Kerry finally retaking the lead.
Like last week, I’d like to recommend my friend Bob, who is doing a tremendous job at 2.004k.com of keeping up-to-date state data available.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Northern Arizona University — Bush 49, Kerry 44, Badnarik 1
Comment: Well, what do you know; Arizona’s getting interesting again.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Zogby — Bush 46, Kerry 44, Nader 2
Comment: Arkansas is consistently left out of the usual “battleground” lists, but Bush’s lead is always in the low single digits. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 46
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Bush 53, Kerry 40
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Chicago Tribune — Bush 47, Kerry 45
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 47
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 57, Kerry 38
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
Rasmussen Reports — Bush 52, Kerry 44, Nader 1
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 46
Research 2000 — Kerry 48, Bush 43, Nader 2
Comment: All indications are BC04 will stop fighting for Michigan very soon and redirect their resources elsewhere.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Chicago Tribune — Kerry 45, Bush 43
Star Tribune — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Montana (3 electoral votes)
MSU-Billings Poll — Bush 55, Kerry 34
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 53, Bush 44
Fairleigh Dickinson University — Kerry 48, Bush 43
New York (31 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 58, Bush 35
Comment: I guess Bush isn’t getting any bonus points from his convention.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 47
Chicago Tribune — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Wilson Research — Bush 50, Kerry 38
Comment: Kerry isn’t going to win in Oklahoma; he won’t even try. But it’s nevertheless interesting that two weeks ago, Wilson Research showed Bush with a 30-point lead, which is now down to 12. For a solid-red state like Oklahoma, that’s an incredible change.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 44
SurveyUSA — Kerry 53, Bush 44
Pennsylania (21 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 46, Bush 43
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 46
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 56, Bush 36
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 55, Kerry 42
Texas (34 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 60, Kerry 37
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Kerry 53, Bush 40, Nader 3
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Chicago Tribune — Kerry 47, Bush 43
Comment: Maybe Wisconsin is coming to its senses? Not a moment too soon.