If you’re a Carpetbagger regular, you know the drill. If you’re new, welcome; I do this every Friday. It’s time for my round-up of statewide presidential polls released over the last seven days — a little something I call “Poll Day.” Also this week, we have the 11th installment of the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal survey. As always, because of concerns I have over its methodology, I’ve kept the data separate from the other polls.
This week includes plenty of interesting updates. A few red states that were looking encouraging are now a little less so (Arizona, Colorado), a few blue states where Kerry is solidifying support (Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico), and all the usual suspects in which the outcome remains a giant question mark (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin).
As usual, my friend Bob at 2.004k.com is an invaluable source for up-to-date polls. Particuarly as we get into the campaign’s final days, it’s a must-read site.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 54, Kerry 43
Arizona Republic — Bush 47, Kerry 40
Comment: The Arizona Republic poll showed Bush with a 10-point lead two weeks ago, now it’s seven. It will probably be tough to close that gap by Nov. 2, but it’s encouraging to see Bush’s lead shrinking.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 51, Kerry 46
Comment: It’s worth noting that the Kerry campaign, despite rumors to the contrary, has not given up on Arkansas. Just this week, KE04 announced a new ad featuring Gen. Wesley Clark and former transportation secretary and Arkansan Rodney Slater. Stay tuned.
California (55 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 53, Bush 43
LA Times — Kerry 57, Bush 39
Comment: We can only hope Bush spends the last two days of the campaign here again.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Rocky Mountain News — Bush 47, Kerry 42
Gallup — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Mason-Dixon — Bush 49, Kerry 43
Ciruli Associates — Bush 48, Kerry 42
Comment: It’s encouraging that most of these polls show Bush below the 50% threshold, but it was a lot closer a few weeks ago.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Insider Advantage — Kerry 48, Bush 44
Washington Post — Kerry 47, Bush 47
Survey USA — Kerry 50, Bush 49
Mason-Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 45
University of North Florida — Kerry 45.3, Bush 43.8
Quinnipiac — Bush 45, Kerry 43
Comment: Two-thirds of these polls show Kerry up, so that, at a minimum, is encouraging.
Georgia (15 electoral votes)
Atlanta Journal-Constitution — Bush 51, Kerry 41
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 59, Kerry 37
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
Marketing Research Institute — Bush 51, Kerry 36
Southern Media and Opinion Research — Bush 50, Kerry 32
Maine (4 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 45
Comment: Kerry’s biggest lead in Maine in weeks. The state is coming to its senses just in the nick of time.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 44
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 47
Mason-Dixon — Bush 47, Kerry 45
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Mason-Dixon — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Montana (3 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 57, Kerry 36
Comment: Montana’s a lovely state, but there’s no reason a pollster should pay good money to conduct this survey.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 52, Kerry 45
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Suffolk University — Kerry 46, Bush 41
American Research Group — Bush 47, Kerry 46
Mason-Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 48
Comment: Kerry’s spending some of his limited remaining time in the Granite State, which could help give him a little added boost.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Fairleigh Dickinson — Kerry 44, Bush 42
Quinnipiac — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Star-Ledger — Kerry 51, Bush 38
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 43
Comment: Ed Gellespie said this week that the polls “are pretty consistent — dead even or the president’s up.” But for those of us in the “reality-based community,” there hasn’t been a single poll showing Bush up in NJ this year.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 46
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 50, Kerry 47
Comment: Three points? Must be an outlier, but a guy can dream, right?
North Dakota (15 electoral votes)
Minnesota State — Bush 55, Kerry 35
Comment: See Montana
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
University of Cincinnati — Kerry 48, Bush 46
ABC News — Kerry 50, Bush 47
Rasmussen Reports — Kerry 47, Bush 47
FoxNews — Bush 47, Kerry 45
SurveyUSA — Kerry 49, Bush 47
Mason-Dixon — Bush 46, Kerry 45
Comment: Notice something that all of these polls have in common? Bush can’t crack 47% support. I’m feeling better and better about Ohio all the time.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Wilson Research Strategies — Bush 61, Kerry 31
Comment: See Montana and North Dakota
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Kerry 50, Bush 44
Riley Research — Bush 48, Kerry 43
Gallup — Kerry 52, Bush 45
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 45
Quinnipiac — Kerry 47, Bush 41
Comment: If the “Big 3” are PA, OH, and FL, I’m thinking Kerry is already a third of the way there.
South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 52, Kerry 42
Comment: Just to be clear, Kerry won’t even try to compete in South Dakota. But, let’s not forget that Bush won here four years ago by 23 points (60-37). If his lead is now down to just 10, it suggests Bush’s support really is faltering. It’s also great news for Daschle.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
MTSU — Bush 50, Kerry 39
SurveyUSA — Bush 60, Kerry 38
Washington (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 52, Bush 45
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Global Strategy Group — Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 2
Mason-Dixon — Bush 49, Kerry 44, Nader 1
Comment: KE04 has all but written off West Virginia, but the polls are looking awfully close.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 47
St. Norbert College — Kerry 48, Bush 43
American Research Group — Kerry 47, Bush 47
University of Minnesota — Bush 48, Kerry 47
Gallup — Bush 51, Kerry 43
Comment: It’s the first time in a long while that there have been a bunch of Wisconsin polls out in one week and the ones with Kerry up outnumber the ones with Bush up.
And finally there’s the Zogby Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll of 16 contested “battleground” states released this week. As I mentioned, I have some concerns about its methodology, specifically, the fact that it relies on email invitations for participation.
Here’s the data:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes) — Bush 49.7, Kerry 48.4, Nader 0.2
Florida (27 electoral votes) — Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.9, Nader 0.3
Iowa (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.1, Bush 47.9, Nader 0.4
Michigan (17 electoral votes) — Kerry 52.6, Bush 45.9, Nader 0.4
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 54.2, Bush 43.1, Nader 1.1
Missouri (11 electoral votes) — Bush 50.7, Kerry 47.6, Nader 1.1
Nevada (5 electoral votes) — Bush 49.8, Kerry 45.9, Nader 0.4
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.1, Bush 46.0, Nader 1.1
New Mexico (5 electoral votes) — Kerry 53.6, Bush 44.1, Nader 1.0
Ohio (20 electoral votes) — Bush 50.6, Kerry 47.6, Nader 0.4
Oregon (7 electoral votes) — Kerry 55.7, Bush 42.6, Nader 0.3
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.8, Bush 46.1, Nader 0.4
Tennessee (11 electoral votes) — Bush 50.3, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.1
Washington (11 electoral votes) — Kerry 54.3, Bush 43.9, Nader 0.4
West Virginia (5 electoral votes) — Bush 48.6, Kerry 45.8, Nader 0.7
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) — Kerry 51.3, Bush 47.5, Nader 0.2