Wow, the final “Poll Day” of 2004, with my last look at the state polls released over the last seven days. Funny how time flies when you’re all-consumed with a presidential election.
You may have assumed that the picture would grow clearer as we got closer to Election Day. There’d be fewer undecideds, many of us thought, and the polls would reflect likely winners in nearly all the states. As this week’s data shows, none of this came true. Not even close.
States that were competitive months ago are still competitive now. The big battlegrounds (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania), the Midwest swing states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin), and the Western competitive states (Colorado, Nevada) are as close as ever. Moreover, a few states that appeared to be obviously behind one candidate or the other (Hawaii, Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri) seem to be moving closer to the “toss-up” category as time goes on.
And for all you poll junkies (you know who you are) who will still be looking for data over the weekend and on Monday, I continue to believe that my friend Bob at NowChannel.com (the site formerly known as 2.004.com) has done an extraordinary job creating an invaluable site for up-to-date data and is the primary source for most of the data below.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Bush 57, Kerry 39
Comment: Someone paid money to put a poll in the field in Alabama?
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 50, Kerry 45
Comment: Still close enough for the outcome to remain in doubt.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Opinion Research Associates — Bush 48, Kerry 48
SurveyUSA — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Comment: Two weeks ago, ORA showed Bush up by nine (52-43). It’s hard to know which poll is closer to being right, but it’s worth noting that KE04, in a last-minute decision, decided to invest in some ads on Arkansas TV this week, probably because their internals showed things breaking their way in the closing weeks. BC04 must see the same thing — it just boosted ad spending in Arkansas as well. Other than Florida, this is the southern state to watch on Tuesday.
California (55 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 53, Bush 44
Field Poll — Kerry 49, Bush 42
Comment: Alas, it does not appear that Bush will spend the final two days of the race in California this year. What a shame.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Zogby — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Comment: That’s not a typo, but it is inconsistent with all of the last four or five polls in Colorado. It’s anybody’s guess, but BC04 is more-than-a-little worried — it just started pumping in some last minute ad-buy money for a state it assumed was in-the-bag.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Zogby — Bush 49, Kerry 46
Miami Herald — Bush 46, Kerry 46
Research 2000 — Kerry 48, Bush 47
Insider Advantage — Bush 46, Kerry 46
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Los Angeles Times — Bush 49, Kerry 41
Quinnipiac — Bush 44, Kerry 44
The Florida Poll — Kerry 48.3, Bush 46.7
Comment: What are we going to do with Florida. Eight polls — Kerry’s up in three, Bush is up in two, and they’re exactly tied in three. The good news is, however, that even after all that’s happened, Bush hasn’t cracked the 50% threshold in any of the eight surveys. All of my Florida sources tell me the ground game in the state will translate into a Kerry victory, but all of my paranoia tells me Jeb & Co. will find a way to steal it. The whole mess will probably end up in court. Again.
Hawaii (4 electoral votes)
Ward Research — Bush 43.3, Kerry 42.6
SMS Research — Bush 46, Kerry 45
Comment: Of all the states we were supposed to be worrying about, Hawaii was near the bottom of the list, somewhere around Vermont and the District of Columbia. ACT and others have scrambled but it appear the outcome is officially in doubt. Cheney went out to Hawaii today for BC04, Gore and Kerry’s daughter Alex will be there over the weekend.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Chicago Tribune/WGN — Kerry 50, Bush 42
Research 2000 — Kerry 53, Bush 41
Comment: The only Midwestern state that is truly in-the-bag for Kerry.
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Research 2000 — Bush 56, Kerry 40
Comment: The only Midwestern state that is truly in-the-bag for Bush.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Zogby — Bush 47, Kerry 45
Iowa Newspaper Association — Kerry 46, Bush 45
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 46
Gallup — Kerry 48, Bush 47
American Research Group — Bush 48, Kerry 47
Comment: Iowa rallied to Kerry’s aid in the closing days in January; let’s hope it does it again on Tuesday.
Kansas (6 electoral votes)
Kansas City Star — Bush 56, Kerry 39
Comment: Someone paid money to put a poll in the field in Kansas?
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Bluegrass Poll — Bush 56, Kerry 39
Comment: Someone paid money to put a poll in the field in Kentucky? It was no doubt a cursory question tacked on to a poll about the state’s Senate race, which could still go either way.
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
University of New Orleans — Bush 48, Kerry 40
SLU — Bush 58, Kerry 32
Comment: Someone paid money to put a poll in the field in Louisiana? It was no doubt a cursory question tacked on to a poll about the state’s Senate race, which could still go either way.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Zogby — Kerry 50, Bush 39
Comment: It’s great to see Kerry up, but after two months of close polls in the state, I can’t help but wonder if an 11-point lead is too good to be true.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Baltimore Sun — Kerry 56, Bush 39
Comment: There’s just no reason to bother polling Maryland right now. It’s a lock.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
EPIC/MRA — Kerry 49, Bush 43
Zogby — Kerry 52, Bush 42
Mitchell Research — Bush 47, Kerry 42
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 46
Research 2000 — Kerry 50, Bush 46
Comment: BC04 appears to think that there’s a real opportunity here and has campaigned in Michigan fairly aggressively this week. I’m still skeptical, Mitchell Research not withstanding.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Zogby — Kerry 46, Bush 45
University of Minnesota — Bush 47, Kerry 44
St. Cloud State University — Kerry 46, Bush 42
Comment: See Michigan, and replace Mitchell with UM.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 50, Kerry 45
SurveyUSA — Bush 53, Kerry 45
Kansas City Star — Bush 49, Kerry 45
Research 2000 — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Comment: I’m really surprised it’s still this close; Kerry isn’t even trying in Missouri, but the gap appears to be closing. It’d take a miracle, but funny things happen.
Nebraska (5 electoral votes)
Omaha World-Herald — Bush 61, Kerry 32
Comment: Nebraska hasn’t backed a Dem presidential candidate in 40 years. It won’t break the streak next week.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Zogby — Bush 48, Kerry 44
Research 2000 — Bush 49, Kerry 47
Belden Russonello Stewart — Bush 45, Kerry 41
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 47
Comment: The polls show a tight race, but early-voting suggests this is a state that might surprise some people.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Franklin Pierce College — Kerry 50, Bush 41
Comment: NH is the only definite “red” pick-up that I’m not even worrying about anymore.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Fairleigh Dickinson — Kerry 49, Bush 41
Quinnipiac — Kerry 45, Bush 41
Comment: Fairleigh Dickinson says Kerry’s lead is getting bigger; Quinnipiac says it’s getting smaller. Still, at the end of the day, there hasn’t been a single poll showing Bush up in NJ at any point this year.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Zogby — Bush 49, Kerry 44
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 44
Comment: The good news is, similar polls in 2000 showed similar results — right before Gore eked out a victory. If anyone can make it happen, Bill Richardson can.
New York (31 electoral votes)
Marist College — Kerry 54, Bush 38
Comment: With California and New York, Kerry already has about a third of the electoral votes he’ll need to be president.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 52, Kerry 43
Research 2000 — Bush 51, Kerry 45
Comment: OK, so maybe Edwards won’t deliver his home state. He will be there this weekend, though, to try and generate some last-minute support.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Wilson Research Strategies — Bush 61, Kerry 28
Comment: See Nebraska
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Scripps/Ohio University — Kerry 49, Bush 43
Zogby — Bush 47, Kerry 42
Rasmussen — Bush 50, Kerry 46
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 47
SurveyUSA — Kerry 50, Bush 47
Los Angeles Times — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Comment: Of the six, Kerry’s up in four. Also notice, Bush was at 50% in only one of them and was 47% or lower in the rest. In fact, my sources tell me that KE04 internals have shown Kerry up in Ohio all week. Oddly enough, I’m starting to feel better about Ohio than Florida.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 52, Bush 45
Research 2000 — Kerry 49, Bush 43
American Research Group — Kerry 50, Bush 46
SurveyUSA — Kerry 50, Bush 47
Comment: Kerry’s lead may be modest, but BC04 gave up on Oregon months ago.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 47, Bush 41
Zogby — Kerry 47, Bush 45
Muhlenberg College — Kerry 48, Bush 46
Rasmussen — Kerry 49, Bush 46
American Research Group — Kerry 50, Bush 47
SurveyUSA — Kerry 53, Bush 45
Keystone Poll — Kerry 49, Bush 44
Gallup — Kerry 49, Bush 46
Los Angeles Times — Kerry 48, Bush 45
Quinnipiac — Bush 49, Kerry 47
West Chester University — Kerry 49.9, Bush 44.6
Comment: Some of these margins are closer than others, but this is still a list of 11 polls, 10 of which show Kerry ahead. Moreover, Bush’s highest percentage of the bunch is 49, while nine of the 11 show him below 47. Of the big battlegrounds, this is the one I feel best about.
Rhode Island (4 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 54, Bush 41
Comment: Gore won here by about 29 points, so expect to see Kerry’s lead grow by the time the votes are tallied.
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 53, Kerry 40
Comment: Someone paid money to put a poll in the field in South Carolina? It was no doubt a cursory question tacked on to a poll about the state’s Senate race, which could still go either way.
South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 55, Kerry 36
Comment: Someone paid money to put a poll in the field in South Dakota? It was no doubt a cursory question tacked on to a poll about the state’s Senate race, which could still go either way.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 53, Kerry 41
Comment: I have no idea why someone polled Tennessee. Some pollsters consider it a “battleground” because it was close in 2000, but I suspect that had something to do with Al Gore, not the state’s political leanings.
Utah (5 electoral votes)
Valley Research — Bush 68, Kerry 23
Comment: There it is, the least competitive state in America.
Virginia (13 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon — Bush 50, Kerry 44
Comment: Kerry will almost certainly keep it a lot closer than Gore did (Bush won in 2000 by eight points) and it’s starting to look like a state that has long-term potential for the Dems.
Washington (11 electoral votes)
SurveyUSA — Kerry 51, Bush 45
Comment: It was no doubt a cursory question tacked on to a poll about the state’s Senate race, which the Dem (Patty Murray) will probably win without too much trouble.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Zogby — Bush 48, Kerry 45
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 47
Badger Poll — Bush 48, Kerry 45
Comment: This year’s biggest question mark. The good news is these polls were conducted before Bruce Springsteen played in Madison yesterday for one of the biggest political crowds I’ve ever seen.