You know the drill. It’s Friday, it’s my last post of the week, and I have some state-by-state polling data to share. As is the case with every Poll Day, these results were released within the last seven days.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Charleston Daily Mail/WSAZ — Bush 47, Kerry 43, Nader 2
Comment: Every poll from the last couple of months in WV has been the same. Bush leads, but not by much. Before 2000, Dems won the state in five of the previous six elections, so at least the history is there. Kerry has made it clear that he’ll be targeting WV heavily this year.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Star-Ledger/Rutgers/Eagleton Poll — Kerry 43, Bush 37
Comment: There was one poll a few weeks ago that showed Bush tied for the lead in NJ, but all of them since have shown Kerry ahead by a fairly comfortable margin. Clinton won the Garden State by 18 points in 1996; Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000; and I think Kerry won’t have to struggle too much to win by a similar margin this year. The margin in this poll is 6 points, which isn’t as much as I’d like, but it’s encouraging that Bush’s support is only at 37% at this point.
Vermont (3 electoral votes)
Research 2000/WCAX — Kerry 51, Bush 36
Comment: Bush’s approval rating in the Green Mountain State is a stunning 35%. I’m fairly certain the Dems would take Vermont even if I were atop the ticket.
Arizona (10 electoral votes)
Behavior Research Center — Bush 46, Kerry 42
Comment: The data here shows Bush’s approval rating has slipped to its lowest level in Arizona since the summer of 2001, prior to the 9/11 attacks. This has to make Rove, Mehlman, and Co. extremely nervous. Arizona has only backed the Dem candidate once in the last half-century (Clinton in ’96), but it’s obviously in play this year.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 45, Kerry 45
Comment: This is amazingly good news. Bush beat Gore in Arkansas by about 5 points and few expected it to be this close at this stage of the 2004 race. Kerry may get an added boost from Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D) re-election campaign, in which the GOP isn’t putting up much of a fight. And if Wesley Clark is on the ticket, it’s looking like Arkansas will be a prime Dem pick-up opportunity. Even without Clark, Kerry clearly has a shot here.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
Granite State Poll — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Comment: This is almost as great as the Arkansas results. Bush beat Gore by just 7,000 votes in 2000 (while 22,000 New Hampshirites voted for Nader). It only has 4 electoral votes — not enough to push Kerry to victory by itself — but I still believe it’s the most likely state in the Union to go from “Red” to “Blue.”
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 55, Kerry 36
Comment: See Vermont, and then reverse everything. One gets the impression that Roy Moore could run on the Constitution Party ticket and Kerry would probably come in third in Alabama.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
University of Connecticut — Kerry 51, Bush 33
Comment: I’m going to go out on a limb and say Bush won’t win his birth-state (it’s true; Bush was born in CT). I suppose Gov. Rowland’s (R) pending impeachment isn’t doing Bush any favors, but it really doesn’t matter.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 47, Bush 43
Comment: This is a little disconcerting. A similar poll from SUSA showed Kerry’s lead at 10 points about a month ago, so a 4-point margin is a little too close. Still, I’d be very surprised if Bush can seriously put Michigan in play this year.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Research 2000/Portland Tribune — Kerry 48, Bush 46
American Research Group — Kerry 48, Bush 46 (or Kerry 45, Bush 45, Nader 5)
Comment: All the polling for Oregon for the last couple of months has been very close, but most show Kerry with a narrow lead. Gore barely won here in 2000 (winning by just 7,000 votes), but the state certainly leans left. In fact, Kerry probably has to worry more about Nader’s support than Bush’s. Keep in mind: Dems have won four of the last four in Oregon. It won’t hurt that Sen. Ron Wyden (D) is probably going to cruise to another term aginst minimal GOP opposition.