For completely unknown reasons, this is the shortest Poll Day ever. There just weren’t a lot of state polls released this week, despite the abundance of national polls available. As a result, I only have results from five states — the stingiest since I started this Friday tradition a couple of months ago. Don’t blame me; it’s the pollsters’ fault.
As always, these results were released within the last seven days.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 49, Bush 42, Nader 2 (or Kerry 50, Bush 43)
Comment: This is an incredibly encouraging poll. Kerry has enjoyed the occasional slim lead in the Buckeye State in recent months, but this is the kind of survey that will keep Karl Rove up at night. Kerry will invest heavily to keep this lead secure because he knows a simple truth — if he wins Ohio, he’s our next president.
California (55 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 46, Bush 45, Nader 4
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 40
Comment: I refuse to believe the SUSA poll. I’m not in denial; it’s just not possible. My disbelief is driven by every other poll out of California for the last year, including the Rasmussen poll conducted over the same time period. Kerry enjoys a double-digit lead over Bush in all of them. In this case, SUSA’s data isn’t just an outlier; it’s fantasy.
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Portland Tribune/KOIN — Kerry 50, Bush 46 (or Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 3)
Comment: This is consistent with most Oregon polling from the last two months, if not a little better. Dems may have won four of the last four in the state, but it will be a targeted because of Gore’s very narrow victory here in 2000 (winning by just 7,000 votes). Polls like this one, coupled by Ron Wyden’s re-election campaign, give Dems reason to be optimistic.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
AP/Ipsos — Bush 49, Kerry 45, Nader 3
Comment: Have you noticed that all of the WV polls are exactly the same? Bush leads by about 4 points, but is held under the 50% threshold. Same here, same with the Charleston Daily Mail poll from last week. Kerry continues to take this state seriously; watch for some poll movement in the coming months.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 42
Comment: Every Wisconsin poll for two months has shown Kerry leading Bush, but this eight-point lead is the largest. It’s an encouraging sign for a state Bush is targeting heavily after Gore’s ultra-slim victory in 2000 (just 0.2%). There is a reason, however, to take this poll with a grain of salt — Rasmussen does not (and will not) include Nader in its state polls. In Wisconsin, where Nader enjoys unusually high support, it skews the results a bit. Something to keep in mind.