Sorry, it’s another day off. I’ll be back Monday with plenty of long-winded tirades for your reading pleasure. In the meantime, enjoy everyone’s favorite Friday feature — Poll Day. As is always the case, these state-by-state poll results were released within the last seven days.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
ARG — Bush 47, Kerry 47 (or Bush 47, Kerry 46, Nader 3)
Comment: In light of all we know about Florida, this poll surprises no one. One interesting plus side to the ARG poll was Kerry’s sizable lead among self-identified independents (47-40), which bodes well for his chances in November.
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Bluegrass Poll — Bush 52, Kerry 40
Comment: The bad news, obviously, is that Kerry is trailing by 12. The good news is Kerry was trailing by 17 a couple of months ago, so the gap is closing a bit. If Bush continues to oppose the federal buyout plan for tobacco farmers, could Kentucky become competitive? It seems highly unlikely, but let’s not forget, Clinton carried the Bluegrass state twice. Hmm.
South Dakota (3 electoral votes)
KELO TV — Bush 51, Kerry 35, Nader 4
Comment: The state hasn’t backed a Dem since 1964, so this is expected. On the other hand, Bush beat Gore in SD by 23 points four years ago, so I consider this 16-point deficit at this point a moral victory.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Comment: This is very encouraging. Pennsylvania is Bush’s key Blue state target — he’s made dozens of “official” visits and invested heavily in attack ads against Kerry. Apparently, they aren’t having the desired effect.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Detroit News — Bush 44, Kerry 40
Comment: Don’t panic. The details of this poll show Bush’s over-all popularity falling sharply in Michigan, including public confidence in his handling of the war and the economy. Most polling from the state in the last couple of months shows Kerry ahead, so this may be an aberration.
Utah (5 electoral votes)
Desert News — Bush 67, Kerry 22
Comment: Bush won Utah in 2000 by 40%, so this poll sounds about right. A trivial point I find amusing: Bush’s support is stronger in Utah than in Texas.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Rasmussen/Daily Southtown — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Comment: Again, don’t panic. Bush knows he has no realistic chance here and won’t really target the state with any significant resources. Illinois won’t be in play come November.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
WRAL/Mason-Dixon — Bush 48, Kerry 41 (or Bush/Cheney 46, Kerry/Edwards 45)
Comment: Now here’s an interesting poll. First of all, in a generic head-to-head, Kerry down by 7 really isn’t horrible — it’s half the margin of Bush’s 2000 victory, plus Bush is under 50%. Better yet, that tobacco buyout flap could help close the gap even further. But the real fun part is seeing what Edwards brings in the way of support. The conventional wisdom was that Edwards couldn’t deliver his home state, so his chances of making the ticket were diminished. This poll clearly suggests otherwise. Will it boost Edwards’ prospects?
Texas (34 electoral votes)
Scripps Howard Texas Poll — Bush 58, Kerry 29
Comment: I’m kind of surprised it’s this close. I should note, however, that even in Texas, the number of people who disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy and the war outnumber those who approve. That’s right, in Texas.
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Mobile Register — Bush 54, Kerry 29, Nader 5
Comment: No surprise here, but even in Alabama, one of Bush’s strongest states, 61% believe the country is currently “on the wrong track.”
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac — Kerry 46, Bush 43, Nader 5
Comment: It’s gotten to the point where I don’t know what to think about New Jersey. One week, it’s tied. The next week, Kerry’s up by double digits. A week later, it’s within the margin of error. All I know for sure is that Clinton won the Garden State by 18 points in 1996; Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000; and I think Kerry won’t have to struggle too much to win by a similar margin this year.