It’s the biggest Poll Day ever, and just four days late. Today we have polls from 28 states, some of which even have more than one. These polls were conducted and/or released between June 3 and June 11.
A couple of points about methodology. One, Rasmussen, which has been busy the last two weeks, does not include Nader in any of its surveys, even in states where his name will likely appear on the ballot. Two, the Zogby/WSJ poll relied on email-driven invitations for participation, which makes me a little skeptical about the results (even though the overall results lean heavily in Kerry’s favor). In other words, caveat emptor.
Unlike previous weeks, I’ve organized the state results in alphabetical order, which should make them easier to reference later. And without further ado…
Alabama (9 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 57, Kerry 36
Comment: Why anyone would pay to commission a poll in Alabama right now is a mystery to me. It’s as predictable as Texas right now.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 43
Zogby/WSJ — Bush 51.2, Kerry 43.5
Comment: Arkansas continues to be far more competetive than the GOP would like. Kerry may get an added boost from Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D) re-election campaign, in which the GOP isn’t putting up much of a fight.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac University — Kerry 46, Bush 36, Nader 8
Comment: I guess it’s not helping Bush that he was actually born in Connecticut.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 46, Bush 46
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 49.5, Bush 47.9
Comment: Wow, a presidential race in Florida in which there’s no clear favorite. Who could have predicted it?
Georgia (15 electoral votes)
Insider Advantage — Bush 49, Kerry 32
Comment: Clinton narrowly eeked out a victory in Georgia in 1992. It may not back a Dem again for a very long time.
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 52, Bush 39
Comment: Whether Bush is on the ballot or not, Illinois is a foregone conclusion.
Iowa (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 49, Bush 41
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 48.9, Bush 47.6
Comment: One of the nation’s closest contests in 2000, Iowa seems to be consistently leaning towards Kerry this year. And with Vilsack rumors continuing to circulate, Kerry’s name remains in Iowa’s headlines.
Kentucky (8 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Bush 52, Kerry 39
Comment: Would you believe Clinton carried this state twice? It’s true, but Gore lost by 15 points in Kentucky in 2000 and Kerry probably won’t do much better.
Louisiana (9 electoral votes)
Marketing Research — Bush 48, Kerry 42
Comment: The same outfit polled Louisiana in March and showed Bush leading by 10. Now the lead is almost half that. Kerry’s campaign took a gamble by spending some money on TV ads in Louisiana last month; apparently it’s doing some good.
Maine (4 electoral votes)
Critical Insights — Kerry 49, Bush 39
Comment: Some silly people consider Maine a battleground state because Gore only won by 5 points in 2000. It won’t be nearly that close this year.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 47, Bush 41
EPIC/MRA — Kerry 45, Bush 43, Nader 3
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 49.1, Bush 45.1
Comment: Michigan continues to be a little more competitive than the Dems would like it to be, but there’s little evidence that Bush can break through and keep the state in play. With support from a popular Dem governor and two well-like Dem senators, Michigan will stay Blue.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 48, Bush 43
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 50.7, Bush 43.6
Comment: Polls from the last few months showed Kerry with a smaller lead, so hopefully these resuls are a sign of things to come. Don’t forget, Minnesota is the only state in the Union to back the Dems in each of the last seven presidential elections.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
LA Times — Bush 48, Kerry 42 (or Bush 48, Kerry 37, Nader 5)
Zogby/WSJ — Bush 48.2, Kerry 47.2
Comment: I know Missouri has a reputation as a bell-weather state, but I think that’s fading. At least I hope so, because virtually all the polls for months have shown Bush in the lead.
Nevada (5 electoral votes)
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 47.3, Bush 43.8
Comment: One of the nation’s fastest growing states is also a key Dem pickup. Kerry may benefit from Harry Reid’s re-election campaign, which is cruising along nicely. And let’s not forget, despite the state’s historic GOP leanings, Clinton won Nevada twice.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
American Research Group — Kerry 46, Bush 46, Nader 2
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 48.7, Bush 44.4
Comment: Kerry enjoys an enormous lead among self-identified independents (58% to 32%) in the ARG poll, which is an excellent sign. I think NH continues to be the most likely Dem pick-up this year.
New Jersey (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 51, Bush 39
Comment: There have been many (too many) stories lately suggesting NJ is in play. Polls like this one reinforce why I don’t believe them. Clinton won the Garden State by 18 points in 1996; Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000. It’s Blue.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
Zogby/WSJ — Bush 48.1, Kerry 47.7
Comment: New Mexico was even closer than Florida in 2000 (a 366 vote margin vs. a 537 margin in FL) and the GOP is targeting the state heavily this year. Bill Richardson’s skills will be put to the test.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 48, Kerry 44
Comment: Gore lost by 13 points and now Bush’s lead over Kerry is only four points? That’s tremendous. Keep an eye on NC; it could be a major upset and put Kerry in the White House.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
LA Times — Kerry 46, Bush 45 (or Kerry 45, Bush 42, Nader 4)
Zogby/WSJ — Bush 49.1, Kerry 46.3
Comment: No matter which poll you believe, Ohio continues to share the title of “Most Important Battleground State” with Florida.
Oklahoma (7 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 58, Kerry 34
Comment: And with just four-and-a-half months before a single vote is cast, TCR News is calling Oklahoma for Bush…
Oregon (7 electoral votes)
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 50.5, Bush 44.6
Comment: If accurate, this is very encouraging. Most of the polls from the last couple of monts show Oregon very close, so this poll’s six-point margin, coupled by Ron Wyden’s strong re-election campaign, gives Dems reason to be optimistic.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 45, Kerry 44
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 51.5, Bush 44.9
Survey USA — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Comment: Here’s another state that will go back and forth between now and November. It continues to be the Blue state that Bush wants most, as evidenced by his near-constant visits.
South Carolina (8 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 49, Kerry 39
Comment: I think it’s impressive that Kerry’s keeping Bush under the 50% threshold in one of the most reliably GOP states in the nation. Gore lost by 16, so a 10-point gap is a moral victory.
Tennessee (11 electoral votes)
Zogby/WSJ — Bush 54.3, Kerry 42.6
Comment: I was kind of hoping Tennessee would be more competitive this year. Polls like this one suggest it may be out of reach.
Virginia (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Bush 47, Kerry 45
Comment: The media laughted when Kerry started buying TV air time in Virginia because the conventional wisdom is that it’s solid Red. Who’s laughing now?
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Survey USA — Kerry 49, Bush 44
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 51.7, Bush 44.3
Comment: Gore carried Washington by about 5% in 2000. Every poll for months has shown Kerry with a lead at least that big, if not larger.
West Virginia (5 electoral votes)
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 46.6, Bush 43.5
Comment: That’s two weeks in a row that a WV poll has Kerry leading. Might this traditional Dem state — WV backed the Dem in 14 of the previous 17 elections before 2000 — be prepared to return to its roots? Let’s hope so.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
LA Times — Kerry 44, Bush 44 (or Bush 44, Kerry 42, Nader 4)
Zogby/WSJ — Kerry 50.4, Bush 44.5
Comment: The Nader threat is probably as serious here as anywhere, as evidenced by the LAT poll. Wisconsin has gone with the Dem in four of the last four (Dukakis even won by a comfortable margin) and Kerry may benefit from Russ Feingold’s re-election campaign, which is progressing nicely, but it’s still a state to watch this year.