Now that both parties have presumptive nominees, general-election polls have grown considerably more salient. Voters now have a clear, one-to-one choice, between two candidates, two parties, and two worldviews.
And at the starting line, a new CBS/NYT poll shows Obama with an edge.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama holds a six point lead over his Republican counterpart John McCain, a new CBS News poll finds. Obama leads McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, with 6 percent of respondents undecided.
The poll contains troubling signs for Obama as he looks to mobilize the Democratic Party behind him following his long and sometimes bitter battle with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, however.
Twelve percent of Democrats say they will support McCain in the general election. That’s higher than the 8 percent of Democrats who defected to President Bush in 2004. Nearly a quarter of Clinton supporters say they will back McCain instead of Obama in the general election.
First, if Obama is leading McCain nationally with a quarter of Clinton’s backers siding with the conservative Republican candidate, that’s pretty impressive. Second, I have to assume that these same Clinton backers will, slowly but surely, move towards the Democratic ticket and the issues, values, and priorities that Clinton takes seriously. This will be easier once intra-party animosity begins to cool down, and after Clinton endorses and begins campaigning for Obama.
In other words, Obama leads McCain nationally by six before some of Clinton’s most ardent backers are prepared to move away from the conservative Republican and towards the candidate who agrees with Clinton on almost everything. With this in mind, Obama’s lead should get bigger, by virtue of these Dems alone.
Granted, a poll like this, five months before the general election, offers little predictive value (especially without state numbers pointing to the electoral college). It is, however, a helpful benchmark, and while CBS News’ report emphasizes that the results contain “troubling signs for Obama,” the truth is the numbers look considerably worse for McCain.
* Bush: The president’s approval rating is down to a stunning 25%, and “more than four in ten voters believe McCain would, indeed, generally continue Mr. Bush’s policies.”
* Favorability: Obama has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 41/31. McCain’s numbers are 34/37.
* Age: Nearly one-in-three voters believe McCain’s age (he’ll be 72 this year) will be an obstacle to his effectiveness as president.
* Caring about voters’ problems: While Obama and McCain are even on sharing voters’ values, poll respondents were also asked if the candidate care about voters’ problems. On this, Obama led McCain by 16 points.
* Iraq: Most Americans seem to reject McCain’s approach to Iraq altogether.
Sixty-one percent say Iraq will never become a stable democracy – the highest number since CBS News starting asking the question in December 2003. Just one third think Iraq will become a stable democracy, and most of them think that will take longer than two years.
Thirty-five percent of those surveyed say things are going well in Iraq, down from 40 percent in April. Sixty-two percent say things are going badly.
Americans would like U.S. troops to come home from Iraq sooner rather than later. 42 percent are willing to have U.S. troops remain in Iraq for only a year or less. 21 percent say troops should stay for one to two years more, while 30 percent are willing to keep troops in Iraq longer than two years.
No word on how folks feel about “100 years” in Iraq after a war with an indefinite end.
Like I said, this is a benchmark, which can be used to monitor trends and movements in various directions as the general-election phase begins in earnest. But at the outset, the landscape doesn’t look too shabby at all.