Polls taken immediately after a political event (campaign debate, State of the Union, etc.) tend to be a little unreliable. These events need a little time to sink in, and the public’s perceptions are influenced by further reflection, news coverage, and water-cooler conversations.
Having said that, a poll taken last night of people who watched Bush’s speech on Iraq didn’t offer the White House much in the way of good news.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of Americans who watched President Bush’s Iraq speech Tuesday night showed that 46 percent had a “very positive” reaction to what they heard.
The poll was taken immediately after the speech, and the 323 adults interviewed were 50 percent Republican, 23 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent. The margin of error was plus or minus 6 percentage points.
In all, most Americans didn’t see the speech, so they’re unlikely to have been persuaded by it. And among those who did, viewers were 2-to-1 Republican, so Bush was largely preaching to the choir (which, as his Bubble Boy policies show, is the way he likes it).
But therein lies the interesting number. Less than half the viewers who saw the speech had a “very positive” reaction to it. By way of contrast, 60% had a “very positive” reaction to Bush’s 2005 State of the Union address and 67% had a “very positive” reaction to the now-infamous “Mission Accomplished” speech from May 2003.
What’s more, a less partisan audience saw the latter two. Because viewers were 2-to-1 Republican last night, you’d think the speech would have scored big numbers. It didn’t.
If Bush can no longer rely on his skills of persuasion to give him a political boost, he’ll have to start counting on actual progress and successes. For the White House, that’s not good news.