Tomorrow, two key Southern states — Tennessee and Virginia — will host delegate-rich primaries (151 delegates between them). Since Kerry emerged as the frontrunner, I’ve considered Feb. 10 something of a firewall for Edwards and Clark, assuming that Kerry would have limited appeal in the region. If the polls are any indication, Edwards and Clark may be splitting the “Southern” vote as Kerry continues to excel.
Tennessee
Zogby poll conducted Feb. 7-8
Kerry — 45%
Edwards — 21%
Clark — 19%
Dean — 5%
ARG poll conducted Feb. 4-6
Kerry — 32%
Edwards — 21%
Clark — 20%
Dean — 8%
Virginia
Zogby poll conducted Feb. 7-8
Kerry — 47%
Edwards — 24%
Clark — 11%
Dean — 10%
ARG poll conducted Feb. 4-6
Kerry — 35%
Edwards — 22%
Clark — 17%
Dean — 9%
If Kerry wins both of these states tomorrow by double digits, you can pretty much stick a fork in this campaign because the race for the nomination will be done.