As I am wont to do, I thought I’d wrap up the week with some poll numbers. Some recent state-by-state data is available, and since that’s the way the presidential race will be decided, I wanted to share.
California (55 electoral votes)
LA Times (2/18-22) — Kerry 53, Bush 40
Field Poll (2/18-22) — Kerry 53, Bush 41
Comment: California, the nation’s largest electoral prize, should be a lock for Kerry. Bush probably won’t even try to compete in the state, unless Karl Rove decides to repeat the incredibly foolish 2000 strategy that all-but kept Bush from the White House.
Florida (27 electoral votes)
ARG (3/3-4) — Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 4
Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times (3/3-4) — Kerry 49, Bush 43, Nader 3
Comment: A too-close-to-call race in Florida where Nader voters may be the deciding factor? Where have I heard this one before?
Illinois (21 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon (3/1-3) — Kerry 47, Bush 39, Nader 2
Research 2000 (3/1-3) — Kerry 54, Bush 36, Nader 1
Comment: Illinois is in the bag. It’s another big state that Bush won’t even target.
Maryland (10 electoral votes)
Mason-Dixon (2/23-25) — Kerry 47, Bush 38, Nader 3
Comment: Bush was crushed by Gore in Maryland in 2000; expect a similar result this year.
Michigan (17 electoral votes)
Detroit News (2/26-3/1) — Kerry 46, Bush 40, Nader 4
Epic/MRA (2/22-25) — Kerry 49, Bush 45
Comment: Keep an eye on this one. I expect Kerry to win here easily (as Clinton and Gore did), but if Bush makes a race of it here, it could spell trouble. I certainly don’t expect it to seriously be in play, but these early poll numbers are a little closer than they should be.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
ARG (3/15-18) — Bush 45, Kerry 39, Nader 8
Comment: The Granite State will be important. In the coming months, I expect Nader’s support to fall and Kerry’s support to grow, especially once some of Kerry’s Massachusetts organization starts kicking things into gear the way it did in the closing weeks before the January primary. NH may have only 4 electoral votes, but in a race this close, it’ll get plenty of attention this year.
Ohio (20 electoral votes)
Rasmussen (3/14-16) — Kerry 45, Bush 41
Comment: Of all the Red states Kerry wants to pick off, Ohio’s the key. Bush beat Gore here by just 3.5% and few states have been harder hit by Bush’s economic failures. Also note that Clinton won Ohio in ’92 and ’96, so it’s not exactly a GOP stronghold. It is almost impossible to imagine Bush winning the election without Ohio, so it’s certain to receive as much attention as any state in the Union this year.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Quinnipiac (3/9-15) — Bush 44, Kerry 40, Nader 7
Franklin and Marshall (2/19-22) — Kerry 47, Bush 46
Rasmussen (3/14-16) — Kerry 45, Bush 44
Comment: Pennsylvania is to Bush as Ohio is to Kerry. It’s the Blue state that Bush is most anxious to lure away, as evidenced by his almost weekly trips to the state since taking office. Gore won here by about 4% in 2000, after Clinton won it twice fairly easily. Like Bush in Ohio, it’s hard to see Kerry winning the White House without Pennsylvania.