By any objective measure, the Bush White House has had a rough couple of weeks. Niger-gate is making the entire administration look dishonest and incompetent, their Iraq policy appears to be a dramatic failure, the deficit is spiraling out of control, and unemployment keeps getting worse. For a while, Bush was able to maintain relatively high approval ratings despite these failures. Those days appear to be over.
Two national polls by major polling outfits show an unusually sharp decline in American support for Bush.
First, Zogby International released a poll on Friday showing Bush’s approval rating has dropped to 53% — the lowest number on a Zogby poll since July 2001 and easily the lowest since Bush’s support skyrocketed after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The same poll also asked respondents for their opinion on Bush’s performance on specific issues. The only issue where Bush polled better than 50% was the war on terrorism, in which 59% approved. Majorities disapproved, however, on every other issue on the poll: foreign policy (49% positive, 50% negative); health care (36% positive, 61% negative); the environment (31% positive, 65% negative); taxes (45% positive, 54% negative); and jobs and the economy (33% positive, 66% negative).
Here’s the kicker: For the first time in Bush’s presidency, a Zogby poll said more likely voters (47%) believe it’s time for someone new in the White House, compared to 46% who said Bush should be re-elected. Wow.
Another poll released Friday had similar results. The latest CNN/Time poll, conducted by Gallup, pegged Bush’s approval rating at 55%, an eight-point drop from mid-May. The same poll said 52% of the people believe Bush is not handling the economy well.
As for Bush’s re-election support, the poll showed Bush at his weakest point since May 2001. CNN explained that 50% said they would like vote for Bush again in 2004, while 46% said it was unlikely.
But a closer look at the breakdown on this question revealed interesting details. The 50% was a combined sum of those who said they are “very likely” and “somewhat likely” to support Bush. For those of us hoping to see Bush lose next year, it’s great news to see a mere 4-point difference on this question. But it gets better when you look at the breakdown more closely:
“If George W. Bush runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?”
Very likely: 33%
Somewhat Likely: 17%
Somewhat Unlikely: 10%
Very Unlikely: 36%
In other words, the respondents with the strongest feelings about Bush, those who said they were “very” likely or unlikely to vote for him, showed that those anxious to vote against him outnumber those anxious to vote for him.
As I mentioned last week, it’s impossible to say if this is a temporary setback or a new post-war plateau for Bush. One thing is clear, however: Bush is vulnerable.
Part of Karl Rove’s philosophy has been maintaining an air of invincibility. Act like you’re unbeatable and you won’t get beat. The theory goes. As Rove sees it, confidence can win elections as people just start to assume that the candidate convinced of his own success will, in fact, succeed.
These poll results, therefore, become all the more important because they tarnish the perception that Bush will simply cruise to victory. The CNN/Time poll showed, for example, that 66% of respondents said they thought that Bush would win next year, regardless of how they voted. This is the basic foundation of Rove’s strategy — make people assume that Bush will win, Democratic voters will grow frustrated, pessimistic, and disheartened, and the media will present the election as if Bush’s victory is assumed, using phrases like “the popular incumbent” and describing the Dem nominee as facing “long odds.”
As more polls show weakening support for Bush, maintaining this façade will be impossible. In the process, it will be even less likely that the media will present the election as if the results are a foregone conclusion. If this trend keeps up, the administration may have to start another war to get another bump in the polls.