The latest poll from the Washington Post/ABC News shows Howard Dean with a commanding lead over the Democratic presidential field. While I have little doubt that Dean is the frontrunner, the methodology behind this poll is troubling.
The results from the Post poll were as follows:
Dean — 31% (up from 20%)
Gephardt — 9% (up from 6%)
Lieberman — 8% (down from 12%)
Kerry — 8% (up from 7%)
Clark — 7% (no change)
Edwards — 5% (up from 2%)
and everyone else below 5%
Without getting too into these results, my concerns were raised after looking at a more detailed review of exactly which questions were asked in this survey.
There were 35 questions in all, and the one asking Dems which of the candidates would get their vote was last. The problem is, poll respondents were asked 6 separate questions about Dean before getting to the last one, while none of the other Dem candidates were mentioned at all. Indeed, the Post/ABC poll even asked respondents about a hypothetical match-up between Dean and Bush in the general election, but no one else.
If you mention Dean’s name six times, and never bring up any of the other Dem candidates’ names, doesn’t it stand to reason that Dean will be the name people recognize and connect with when it comes down to which Dem they support?