Primary night open thread

August 8, 2006

There are a handful of bloggers who’ll offer primary-night live-blogging this evening, but I’m afraid I won’t be one of them. And while I probably won’t post tonight, how about an over-night thread for election-related program activities instead?

Feel free to report on predictions, rumors, baseless innuendo, and election results from Connecticut (or, for that matter, any of the other states — including Georgia, Michigan, Colorado, and Missouri — with primary elections today).

As for my best guess, I’m going with Lamont 56%, Lieberman 44%. How about you?

Lamont 53%, Lieberman 47%. Just close enough to make it tough for Lieberman to give up on his third-party campaign.

  • Oh, there’s a third candidate? Lamont 49.9, Leiberman 48.1, and we get a run-off. If that happens we are surely living in hell on Earth.

  • Just a minute or two ago Jake Tapper, on ABC News, said that if Lieberman loses that he will have been “purged”. AT one point Lamont, on the some report, was described as the GOP canidadate !

  • I’m waiting (and hoping) for Cynthia McKinney (D-Georgia) to get beat in her runoff. Her opponent is annoyingly lame and inarticulate, but he ain’t her. I used to live in her district, and when she was first elected, she was okay. But then she went mad. Even though she’s running against a black man, I guarantee she’ll blame white racists (all white people in her view) for her defeat. Count on it. Cynthia doesn’t play the “race card.” She walks around with a “race billboard.”

  • I think those figures from the futures market tell a different story, where the large majority of participants believe that LaMont will win. Im not sure it says anything about the individuals belief as to whether it is close or not. By that I mean the outcome is not in dispute, according to the figures, but the range of expectations on the extent of win by each participant is not clear.

  • If Lamont wins tonight, look for the red-baiting and McCarthyite tactics to REALLY begin !! And not just by the usual group of rightwing haters ! Still Holding out for 64 – 36 !

  • About those futures…now, it’s not impossible that it means it’s not close, but the only way I think that works is if the participants in the futures market are a representative sample of Connecticut voters, or if voters nationally would vote the same way as those actually voting in the primary.

  • G2000, bear in mind that the futures market does not reflect the preferences of the market participants but their estimation of the voters’ preferences. The closer you get to election day, the better a predictor of the outcome these markets tend to be. That said, what I’m not certain of is how the price difference on the futures markets relates to the expected margin of victory, vs. the certainty of a Lamont victory by any margin.

  • Is Diebold running in CT? -beep52

    Nope. Levers. It’s a Rube Goldberg voting machine.

  • Firedoglake says people are looking pretty happy in Connecticut. I hope that’s a good sign.

  • Right Beale, it reflects what they think the CT voters will do, in a net sense, so you agree that it predicts the outcome, not necessarily the extent of victory. I think we are on the same page, but my second comment (post 16) isnt clear…i dont mean to say it estimates each voters preference, but rather the expectation about the collective whole and what the result of the contest will be. When I say “the large majority of participants believe that LaMont will win” i dont mean they (the futures participants) are actually showing THEIR preference. I was trying to think of a way in which there is any linkage between what the particpants bet on, vs what the CT voters actually would choose. I think it is a reach though.

  • Lamont will be the opening salvo in the rebellion to take back the Hill—not just the Senate, but that nauseating pit of appeasement—the House.

    Ready to “fire for effect,” people?

  • Joe2000.com is nowhereville…
    Joe2004.com doesn’t work…
    Joe2006.com is STILL a suspended page…

    Joe2008.com is coming soon…

    Now I know why some of you call this guy Loserman.

    He is going down tonight.
    Doesn’t matter by how much.

    He is going down.
    And that’s all that’s matter.

  • Lamont wins in a stunning 20-point blowout. But Lieberman rallies his Religious Right pals, who ask Jesus for help. Jesus comes down and erases everyone’s memories while he changes the results to give Holy Joe a three-point victory. It may already be happening! If nothing else, it would make a good “South Park” episode.

  • Cynthia Update: As early as this morning she began having a tantrum over “voting irregulaties.” The machines didn’t work, her name wasn’t on the ballot, police harassed voters, etc., etc.

    Election officials have promised a serious investigation, but have already proven that most of the charges are false. Curiously, the people who actually voted for her haven’t complained. Just the McKinny campaign.

  • Fellow Baggers–Nojomentum update as of 9:15 :

    U.S. Senate
    Democratic Primary
    Updated at 09:09 PM – Aug. 08, 2006

    Precincts Reporting: 184 of 757 – 24%
    Candidate Incumbent Votes Vote %
    Joe Lieberman X 32,575 45%
    Ned Lamont 40,044 55%

  • A third of the way there:

    U.S. Senate
    Democratic Primary
    Updated at 09:19 PM – Aug. 08, 2006

    Precincts Reporting: 287 of 757 – 38%
    Candidate Incumbent Votes Vote %
    Joe Lieberman X 53,159 46%
    Ned Lamont 61,449 54%

  • has anyone checked out the ny times blog? did anyone realize the ny times had a blog? while the entries are about as trenchant as the glog entries during cbs sportsline gamecasts (that i can make this analogy suggest i might have a blog problem), i’m amazed that their are so few people commenting. i think it’s a great idea for the times to have a blog, which will serve as a far better omsbudsmen than okrent, but what can they do to get the word out and get people involved?

  • Yikes!

    404 of 748 Precincts Reporting – 54.01%
    Lamont, Ned Dem 74,396 51.98%
    Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 68,718 48.02%

    They’re really trying to destroy our fingernails.

  • This thing’s going to be close as hell.

    While it would be nice to win a squeaker for once, I’m afraid it’ll only embolden Holy Joe to run as an independent.

  • Joe’s got the momentum…
    If he pulls this out… he ought to think about the WH in 2008…

    Maybe he and McCain can run as co-presidents and unite the country (gentile and jew) to stay the course in Iraq!

    John and Joe in 2008.

    That’s got a promising ring to it.
    I’d bet that ticket would make Cokie Roberts blush proud…

  • well, joe will definitely run independent, if need be. too close for any comfort with 3/4 in…

    U.S. Senate
    Democratic Primary
    Updated at 09:59 PM – Aug. 08, 2006

    Precincts Reporting: 565 of 757 – 75%
    Candidate Incumbent Votes Vote %
    Joe Lieberman X 99,940 48%
    Ned Lamont 106,996 52%

  • Regarding an indy bid for Joe, did he get the signatures he needed to do that?

    For some reason, I thought there was some kind of deadline that passed here recently….

  • I think he’s good to go–he was collecting those signatures while he was campaigning for the Dem nomiination.

  • Precincts Reporting: 625 of 757 – 83%
    Candidate Incumbent Votes Vote %
    Joe Lieberman X 111,887 48%
    Ned Lamont 120,616 52%

  • NYTimes:

    With 84 percent of Connecticut’s precincts reporting at 10:25 p.m., Mr. Lamont held 51.9 percent of the vote, with Mr. Lieberman holding 48.1 percent.

    State officials and advisers to both candidates said Tuesday night that the Democratic primary race was too close to call, noting that voters appeared to turn out at high levels and returns were not complete. Still, some Lieberman advisers spoke grimly of defeat, though they held out hope for a boost from late returns in Hartford, New Haven, and other traditional strong-holds for the senator, who is seeking a fourth term.

    “Senator Lieberman realizes that the early returns show him slightly behind, but his mood is up, he’s looking ahead, and he’s going to be a Democratic senator whether he wins tonight or wins in November,” said Lanny J. Davis, a friend and adviser to Mr. Lieberman, in a telephone interview after leaving the senator’s hotel suite in Hartford.

    Mr. Davis was referring to Mr. Lieberman’s plan to run as an independent this fall if he lost the primary to Mr. Lamont. Advisers to the senator, while still sticking to that plan Tuesday night, said the senator would probably drop out if two things came to pass: Mr. Lamont won the primary overwhelmingly, and the next round of opinion polls showed Mr. Lamont well ahead of Mr. Lieberman in the fall general election.

    “The dust needs to settle, but honestly, I can’t see Joe staying in if Lamont bounces and holds a big lead in three-way polls,” said a senior Lieberman adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity because the senator had forbade aides from discussing his exit from the race.

  • U.S. Senate
    Democratic Primary
    Updated at 10:39 PM – Aug. 08, 2006
    Precincts Reporting: 651 of 757 – 86%
    Candidate Incumbent Votes Vote %
    Joe Lieberman X 116,060 48%
    Ned Lamont 124,940 52%

  • WTNH is reporting that Lamont is prepared to declare victory. They also claim that they have a copy of the victory speech.

  • Lieberman just said he’s not discouraged and going ahead with his indy run. He’s just so narcissistic–he thinks he’s doing it for “the country.” Disgusting. He talks about partisan polarizing–and he ran against a DEMOCRAT! What more is needed to show that he isn’t one.

  • CNN article posted 10:57 EDT

    Lamont leads Lieberman in early returns

    ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) — With the polls closed and almost all of the precincts reporting, cable executive Ned Lamont led Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the Democratic primary for the Connecticut Senate nomination.

    With 94 percent of the precincts reporting, Lamont led Lieberman 52 percent to 48 percent, according to The Associated Press.

    It looks like the proverbial fat lady has sung and Elvis has left the building.

  • The major networks let Lieberman blather on and on for at least 10 minutes as he pretended his slim loss was a win. Afterwards, they summed up Joe’s glorious remarks and said Ned is a millionaire with a self-financed campaign. Gee, wonder who the media corporatists are supporting? Ned is going to come out once everyone is asleep apparently. They will be covering sports then and too engrossed to cut away probably. Hopefully the rest of his campaign will be run better than that indicates.

  • Truly a remarkable event.

    A three term Senator defeated in a primary…

    Zowie…

    And how does the wind bag respond?

    “The old politics of partisan polarization one today,” Lieberman said. “For the sake of our state, our country and my party, I cannot and will not let that result stand.”

    How’s that for an example of conservative compassion?

  • The major networks gave Ned no more than two minutes. CBS much under that. Many minutes spent on someone in Ridgewood Queens who groped a child at a Green Grocer’s.

  • Lamont won and 14,000 voters switched from unaffiliated to Dem and 14,000 Replugs switched to Dem to vote. I am sure many Replugs switched to vote for Lieberman and he still lost. YEAHHH!!!!!!, Way to go Connecticut!

  • Lieberman’s concession speech was a bunch of dirty words. I think that’s what we all need to get across tomorrow.

  • I saw Lamont’s entire victory speech on CSpan. It was great, worth seeing online if posted tomorrow.

    Upon making his closing, rousing statements, Ned concluded his speech with the line “I’m Ned Lamont, and I approve this message!”

    Ya-hooooooo!

  • Thank goodness for CSpan. I watched both speeches. I found it interesting how much like Bush, Lieberman sounded. Truly.

    How are the Democrats going to respond to this? The voters in Connecticut will make their choice, but I’m more concerned with the “party,” and it’s relationship with Lieberman and Lamont. Now, more than ever, the party needs to adhere to some kind of unity in order to take back some desperately needed seats this November. And, yet, Lieberman is forcing a needless rift in the party, for purely personal reasons. Does the party fracture, or does it solidify?

  • Lieberman said he ran his campaign to “unite not divide” the country … that he wanted to see an end to “partisan” politics.

    His first comment sounded just like George W. Bush in the 2000 race. And how can his loss in a Democratic primary be “partisan?”

    We should all call and email his campaign headquarters tomorrow and urge him to do the right thing … support the Democratic candidate.

    BAC

  • Check it out: Lieberman lost an election within his own party and he still wants to “go” for it in November!

    Shazam!

    What does that mean?

    I submit that Joe is really saying this:

    “Maybe when the Republicans vote for me in the general election it will put me over the top.”

    So then, how about we try a little Q and A:

    Q: What party is Joe really beholden to?
    A: Give me a kiss and I will tell you.

  • Life interfered, I got distracted with other things and didn’t check on the Lamont/Lieberman race till about 10 minutes ago, to see — on TPMMuckracker — that Lieberman has conceded and that he’ll run as independent (that much for his being a Democrat). But I still have no definitive numbers…

    Well, never mind; it’s enough to retire for the night on a happy thought. And a hope that we’ll retain a *truly Democratic* Senate seat for Connecticut, come November…

  • If Lieberman runs third party it proves he is a liar. He knows it would be bad for the Democratic Party but he isn’t concerned about that or the party members. Lying Joe. Good riddance.

  • I saw the news on the front of the paper only just after getting out of my car in the work parking lot. I’m wondering if the buzz will last all day 😉

  • Dem party “leaders” needs to give the Lieberwhiner a good talking to, because he still doesn’t get it. When Democratic voters desperately sought a voice, he he told them they were wrong. Now, they’ve told him he was wrong. When you lose, you graciously thank your supporters and get behind the winner. Stop the whining, Joe.

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