One last note about Iowa. A lot of people have noted the way Jimmy Carter successfully parlayed a victory in Iowa in 1976 into winning the nomination. But from a historical context, Iowa’s results are interesting, but have limited predictive application.
If you’re a Kerry fan, you want to focus on Carter in ’76 and Mondale in ’84, because that’s when the winner of the Iowa caucuses went on to win the nomination.
If you’re a Dean fan, you’ll like 1988 when Michael Dukakis suffered an embarrassing third place finish (behind Dick Gephardt and Paul Simon), before regrouping and winning the nomination. (Then again, if you like Dean, you may want to avoid Dean-Dukakis comparisons…)
If Clark is your man, your favorite year is 1992, when Bill Clinton didn’t even compete in Iowa (because Tom Harkin was running in his home state), finishing far behind “uncommitted” before ultimately winning the nomination.
And if you’re backing Edwards, you’ll need to look on the other side of the aisle to find examples of strong second-place finishes working out in the long run. In 1980, Reagan finished second behind H.W. Bush in Iowa before getting the nomination.
And if you’re backing Joe Lieberman…wait a minute, why would anyone be supporting Lieberman?