I’m certainly not in the habit of defending Howard Dean here at The Carpetbagger Report, but I wanted to mention that I strongly disagree with the chattering class’ idea of “peaking too early.”
It’s a bizarre, almost meaningless meme that seems to dominate all Dean discussions in the political media.
Republican strategist Scott Reed told the Washington Times that “Dean is peaking here about six months before things matter.” Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi has to respond to questions in almost every interview as to whether “Dean is peaking too soon.” Mark Shields was on PBS last week talking about Dean’s Time and Newsweek covers and concluded that Dean “is peaking too early.” Influential Iowan columnist David Yespen said two weeks ago that Dean “may be peaking too early.” USA Today columnist Richard Benedetto said the exact same thing a couple of days later.
The more I think about it, the less I understand what this claim means. It’s apparently become the cool phrase that all the political journalists are using, but I think it’s total nonsense.
The whole idea that Dean or any other candidate can peak too early is predicated on unknown assumptions. Much to my chagrin, Dean is charging ahead in the polls. Is this his peak or is his support still growing? No one really knows. It’s one of those things that can only be seen in hindsight. It’s like looking at a stock that has reached a 52-week high — do you sell now thinking it’s reached its peak or do you wait and see it increase in value even more? You know the answer for sure a few months later.
Who’s to say that Dean, who has already built an impressive army of supporters, cannot build on his current success and see his poll numbers and fundraising go up some more in the coming months?
The notion that a candidate can “peak to soon” suggests some nebulous bell curve exists for every campaign. If you start with a base of small support, only to have it grow, then some assume it must come back down. The idea is, if this support grows to surprising heights in, say, August, it’ll fall to Earth when it counts, say, in March.
What’s worse, those who are most fond of this line of thinking — political journalists who love the “horse race” angle — are the ones who write the stories that shape the campaign narrative. As such, these ideas become self-fulfilling prophecies.
Recent history with frontrunners shows that early favorites usually do pretty well. In 2000, Bush was the early favorite with the broadest base of support among the GOP contenders. Bush faced a couple of tough primary fights with John McCain, and even got trounced in New Hampshire, but by the time the South Carolina and Virginia primaries came around, Bush’s hold on the nomination was secure. No one seriously expressed concern that Bush had “peaked too soon.”
The same thing happened with Bob Dole in 1996 — early favorite, won a bunch of primaries, got the nomination.
Or consider the trajectory of Bill Clinton in ’92. He started off with a small base of support. He was polling in the single digits in New Hampshire just two months before the primary. Suddenly, his campaign caught fire, he came in second in New Hampshire, cruised to several Super Tuesday victories, and never looked back. Did Clinton “peak too early”? I don’t think so.
I know in the world of sports, a lot of people talk about teams “peaking too early.” It suggests that some teams begin to play at their best level long before the post-season or the championship game. The idea is, I guess, that players find it difficult to maintain that level of intensity for more than a short time, so teams, if they’re going to peak at all, should work towards peaking at the end of the year.
I just don’t think this is applicable to presidential campaign politics. Campaigns have little trouble maintaining a sense of urgency and a high level of intensity from start to finish. There will be an ebb and flow in popularity and poll numbers, but serious candidates who build a legitimate base of supporters will rarely lose these backers simply because time elapses.
Dean’s campaign may crumble in the coming months, or it may go on to great success. Right now, it’s too soon to tell.
Regardless, the media’s efforts to script Dean’s course with the incessant use of the “peak too soon” theme is unfair. Let the campaigns rise and fall on their merits, not the predetermined labels anxious journalists want to apply to undeserving candidates.