You’ve probably seen plenty of analysis on the New Hampshire primary from everyone else, but for what it’s worth, here’s my two cents.
In the off chance you rely exclusively on The Carpetbagger Report for information, the final results out of New Hampshire (with 100% of the precincts reporting) are as follows:
Kerry — 39% (13 delegates)
Dean — 26% (9 delegates)
Clark — 13% (0 delegates)
Edwards — 12% (0 delegates)
Lieberman — 9% (0 delegates)
I still marvel at how quickly things changed in this race. A month ago, I assumed, like most, that Dean would win Iowa and New Hampshire. The question then became who could stop him from winning the nomination and how. Now it appears we can simply replace Dean’s name with Kerry’s for all the late-2003 assumptions.
In any event, how you interpret the New Hampshire results depends entirely on whose spin you believe.
Kerry — Two for two after looking like “Dead Man Walking.” Dean can talk all he wants about his alleged “comeback,” but Kerry was down in New Hampshire by as many as 32 points just last month. A tracking poll showed Kerry trailing Dean by 26 points just two weeks ago. That’s the good news. The bad news Kerry’s campaign invested a lot in ensuring both of these victories. If he can capitalize on these results, refill his coffers, and win big in next week’s min-Super Tuesday, Kerry’s path to the nomination looks very good. If not, the primary race will likely drag on for a while.
Dean — Despite furious but unconvincing spin, the guy blew a double-digit lead in Iowa and then blew an even bigger lead in New Hampshire. Those who were writing his political obituary may have been premature, and he’s still not quite toast, but that doesn’t change the fact that he lost the first two races after looking like a shoe-in for both just a few weeks ago. In fact, the two or three days immediately before the primary, Dean was supposed to be “closing the gap” with Kerry. Dean’s campaign was still sending out alerts all afternoon yesterday saying that Dean could win NH with a little last-second push. But at the end of the day, Dean’s alleged momentum was no where to be found and he managed another double-digit defeat. As the New York Times put it this morning, “Howard Dean has now failed twice, decisively, in the states where he has worked hardest, with the voters who know him best, even among those who share his signature issue: opposition to the war in Iraq.” That sums it up perfectly.
That’s the bad news. The good news for Dean is he still has a lot of money and field support in upcoming primary states. Of course, unless Dean fails to win somewhere awfully soon, he’ll be under pressure to withdraw.
Clark — He said he wanted to finish third and he did. It seems to me Clark’s biggest problem was Dean’s poor showing in Iowa last week. Clark was all set to be the appealing alternative to Dean, never expecting Kerry to do so well. Indeed, Clark’s strongest period in New Hampshire were the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, when he was within single digits in NH of then-first place Dean. That was before Dean finished so poorly and Kerry benefited from a big win. Nevertheless, there’s plenty of positive, and largely persuasive, spin from Clark’s camp: He won a hard-fought battle for third place against a guy who was supposed to have all the momentum (Edwards) and lost to two candidates who come from states neighboring New Hampshire. All in all, third place is a respectable finish, especially when one considers this was the first election Clark has ever competed in — ever.
Edwards — A decent fourth-place showing, but it had to be a little disappointing. He was supposed to be gaining strong on Clark, but in the end, he came up just short of third place. It won’t be fatal unless he loses in South Carolina. Ultimately, I’m just glad Edwards beat Lieberman.
Lieberman — “Joementum” was a foolish fantasy. Lieberman was competing in New Hampshire after skipping Iowa entirely, he literally lived in the state for a month to boost his appeal, he’s from a nearby New England state, and he was on the Dems’ national ticket just over three years ago. As recently as yesterday afternoon, Lieberman was insisting he was in the running for third in the Granite State. Instead, a fifth place finish with single-digit support. If Gephardt was the big loser in Iowa, Lieberman was the big loser yesterday. Time to go, Joe.