Up until fairly recently, Republicans had absolutely no idea what to do, or even say, about rising oil prices. They knew Americans were worried about it, and they recognized the impact on the economy, but they came up short on the solutions part of the equation.
There was some half-hearted talk about ANWR, but everyone knows that’s a temporary fix that wouldn’t affect prices for over a decade, if ever. John McCain started rambling about a “gas-tax holiday,” but even conservatives realize this would only be a massive giveaway to oil companies.
The GOP wants to be proactive, and have something concrete to offer, but policy ideas have never been the party’s strength. At a recent White House press conference, pressed on rising energy costs, Bush said, “[T]here is no magic wand to wave right now.” In fact, the president repeated the line three times, as if to say, “Don’t ask me; I just work here.”
But that was before this week. Now, Republicans finally have a real proposal: coastal driling. It’s not a good proposal, but it’s slightly more compelling than the search for Bush’s elusive wand.
President Bush, reversing a longstanding position, will call on Congress on Wednesday to end a federal ban on offshore oil drilling, according to White House officials who say Mr. Bush now wants to work with states to determine where drilling should occur.
The move underscores how $4-a-gallon gas has become a major issue in the 2008 presidential campaign, and it comes as a growing number of Republicans are lining up in opposition to the federal ban. […]
In Washington, the White House press secretary, Dana Perino, said Mr. Bush would urge Congress to “pass legislation lifting the Congressional ban on safe, environmentally friendly offshore oil drilling,” adding, “The president believes Congress shouldn’t waste any more time.”
Republicans seem thrilled to have something specific to add to their talking points. This is, however, a slight problem for all of the leading GOP officials who have opposed coastal drilling, some as recently as last week.
The ban on coastal drilling was first enacted in 1982, and has been widely accepted by both parties ever since. This has been especially true of Republican presidential candidates, in large part because coastal drilling has been wildly unpopular in Florida and California, which combine for about a fourth of the electoral votes needed to win the White House.
But that was before gas hit $4 per gallon. Now, Bush has flip-flopped. And so has John McCain. And so has Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, rumored to be a leading VP possibility, who was asked just last week about whether he’s dropping his opposition to drilling for oil off of Florida’s coast. “I am not,” Crist said. “No, I don’t like it.” Yesterday, he reversed course and embraced ending the ban.
It’s certainly possible a lot of voters will fall for this. Many will likely conclude that the way to lower prices is to increase supply, and if that means coastal drilling, so be it. There are, however, a few problems with this.
Most notably, for those struggling to afford filling their tanks, coastal drilling won’t offer much of a break for a very long time.
McCain’s speech today estimates that there 21 billion barrels in the moratorium areas. That seems a touch high. The Energy Department put it at 18 billion a few years ago. Popular Mechanics reports an estimate of 19 billion. Regardless, it’s about double of what’s estimated in ANWR.
So, if lifting the moratorium on most offshore drilling has double the impact on price as lifting the ANWR ban would, that’s only $1.50 off the price of crude per barrel. Combined with ANWR, it’s $2.25.
Again, by 2025. Again, little to no impact on the price at the pump, today or tomorrow. Not pragmatic. Not short-term. There is simply not enough oil.
As for McCain specifically, his sudden interest in energy policy is exposing his incoherence on the issue. On Monday, he didn’t know what was entailed in his own cap-and-trade policy. Yesterday, he didn’t realize that he was willing to support a windfall-profits tax on oil companies as recently as last month.
One of these days, these guys will get serious about energy alternatives. Today, however, is not that day.