In politics, there are certain racial, ethnic, and religious groups who can be expected to generally support one political party or the other. On one side, Jewish and African-American voters are reliable supporters of Democrats, and on the other, fundamentalist Christians and Cuban-American voters tend to back Republicans.
The “Cuban vote,” however, is quickly becoming one to watch for several reasons.
Cuban Americans represent a large percentage of voters in South Florida, which in turn gives Cubans a strong political voice in a key state. When Karl Rove says that Florida will be “ground zero” in the 2004 campaign, as he did Tuesday, he’s not kidding. The state is evenly divided, as evidenced by its virtual tie in 2000, and the GOP will need the support of the Cuban community if they hope to win the state’s 27 electoral votes next year.
For several decades, the GOP hasn’t had to worry too much about that support. In fact, it was easy to take for granted. For a variety of historical reasons, which I’ll have to save for another post, Cuban-American voters have overwhelmingly backed Republican candidates. In South Florida, there are some notable exceptions — Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez and Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas come to mind — but these Democrats tend to succeed despite their political party affiliation, not because of it.
There have been signs over the last decade that Cuban-American voters, particularly younger generations whose parents immigrated to Florida from Cuba, were increasingly open to Democratic overtures. In the 1992 and 1996 elections, Bill Clinton was able to make significant inroads with the Cuban community en route to carrying Dade and Broward — South Florida’s two highly-populated counties — by large margins. Of course, the Elian Gonzales controversy quickly eroded potential support for Dems, undoing much of the support that had been shifting away from the GOP. On Election Day 2000, Bush enjoyed over 80 percent of the Cuban vote in Florida.
There are new indications, however, that Bush and Republicans may not enjoy similar backing next year. If Bush loses the support of Cuban Americans, it will dramatically weaken Bush’s chances of winning Florida’s electoral votes. And no matter how you look at the electoral map, it’s pretty tough — if not next to impossible — for Bush to win re-election without Florida.
Why is support for Bush weakening in the Cuban community? Things started getting tense when 12 Cubans, just 40 miles from the U.S. coast, were captured and detained last month. The Bush administration, after negotiations with Castro’s government, agreed to repatriate the 12 once Castro agreed not to execute them and limit their prison sentences.
It was not a welcome move in the Cuban community.
Cuban Americans in South Florida were well aware of the “wet foot, dry foot” policy, created by the Clinton administration, under which the decision was made. The policy dictates that Cuban immigrants who reach U.S. soil can stay (i.e., they have “dry” feet), while those caught at sea are to be returned (they have “wet” feet). Nevertheless, Cuban Americans have always opposed the policy and hoped Bush would back them on refusing to return these 12 would-be immigrants to Castro for punishment. At a minimum, they argued, the 12 should be sent to a third country.
When Bush refused, Cubans were outraged. Even Bush’s brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), hung the president out to dry on this one, saying he thought Castro is part of “an oppressive regime, and given the environment in Cuba, it’s just not right” to have sent the Cubans back. Jeb added that he thought his brother had failed to create a “coherent policy” on Cuba.
Things got considerably worse last week when Otto Reich, a top Bush official for the Western Hemisphere, was sent to Miami to quell the controversy over the repatriation. Reich, who was born in Cuba, made a comment in an interview with Telemundo that he believes Cuban immigrants should be screened like all other immigrants to prevent potential terrorists from sneaking into the U.S.
The way he said it, however, came across as pretty insulting. Reich asked, “What would Dade County do with a million more Cubans who don’t speak English, who haven’t been well-educated, that have lived under a totalitarian government where values don’t exist, moral or economic?” The comment prompted interviewer Juan Manuel Cao to ask, “Are we that bad?” The incident was talked about at length my Cuban radio programs in the Miami area.
Are Cuban Americans, who enthusiastically backed Bush in 2000, likely to quickly forgive Bush and fall “back in line”? Definitely not. In fact, this week, 13 Republican Florida state legislators sent Bush an angry, almost threatening, letter. They said if Bush did not make “substantial progress” toward meeting the demands of the Cuban-American community, “we fear the historic and intense support from Cuban-American voters for Republican federal candidates, including yourself, will be jeopardized.”
Among the several demands were an overhaul of existing immigration policies regarding Cuba, an indictment against Castro for shooting down a Brothers to the Rescue airplane, and assurances that TV Marti, whose transmissions are currently being blocked by Castro’s government, will have their broadcasts seen by people in Cuba.
State Rep. David Rivera, who helped draft the letter, said, “As the summer has passed, there has been a snowball effect of frustration within the Cuban-American community. We want immediate, tangible, substantive action.”
The Cuban American National Foundation sent a similar letter to the White House this week, threatening to pull its political and financial support of Republicans.
The problem for Democrats is that winning over the hearts of the Cuban American community poses a significant challenge. For Dems to appeal to Cuban Americans in ’04, they’d have to take a very hawkish approach to Castro, and the only candidate willing to do that is Joe Lieberman. (It’s worth noting that Lieberman was the only Dem to denounce the repatriation controversy with a campaign statement — issued in Spanish.)
In the meantime, Spanish-language radio stations in South Florida will continue playing an increasingly-popular song, which ends, “All together, let’s sing: Bush is betraying us.”