He hasn’t talked about it much publicly, but the truth is, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) realized a while ago that he wouldn’t win a majority of delegates before the Republican National Convention, but thought he might have greater success if there were a brokered convention, at which anything can happen.
In a message to his fans last night, Paul effectively conceded that it’s time to face facts and refocus his efforts. His message explained:
“With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero. But that does not affect my determination to fight on, in every caucus and primary remaining, and at the convention for our ideas, with just as many delegates as I can get. But with so many primaries and caucuses now over, we do not now need so big a national campaign staff, and so I am making it leaner and tighter.”
That doesn’t sound like a candidate poised to officially withdraw from the presidential race, though it does sound like a candidate who can see the writing on the wall.
And what about a possible third-party campaign? I’ve long thought that Paul is uniquely well-suited for an independent effort — unlike, say, Unity08 or the Reform Party, his message is truly “distinct” compared to the two major parties — but apparently Paul also realizes that there’s no real point in such a campaign.
Mr. Paul clearly stated that he will not run as a third-party candidate. Right now, his priorities are serving the residents in his Texas congressional district and winning re-election: “If I were to lose the primary for my congressional seat, all our opponents would react with glee, and pretend it was a rejection of our ideas.”
From what we can make of the letter, Mr. Paul is staying in the race on a peripheral level, just so he can keep participating in policy discussions (and maybe use up all that money he’s amassed?).
“In the presidential race and the congressional race, I need your support, as always,” Mr. Paul wrote. “And I have plans to continue fighting for our ideas in politics and education that I will share with you when I can, for I will need you at my side. In the meantime, onward and upward! The neocons, the warmongers, the socialists, the advocates of inflation will be hearing much from you and me.”
In this sense, Paul is in a similar position to Dennis Kucinich. He’s been running a presidential campaign with no real expectation of success, but with the hope of giving his ideas a national platform. But pushing the Quixotic effort too far imperils his only day job — serving as a member of the House of Representatives — including a primary challenge back home. (Sometimes, voters actually want a representative who cares as much about them as some broader national vision.)
I suspect Paul, if he gave up his House seat and ran as an independent, could make the ballot almost everywhere, and could probably garner up to 4% of the national popular vote. As third-party candidates go, that’s not too bad.
The problem, of course, is the day after, when Paul found himself unemployed. Given his rabid following, he could probably create some kind of advocacy group and make a fair amount of money, but he’d be completely without power, and his influence in Washington (which is already modest) would disappear.
Better to wrap up the presidential campaign quietly, give some attention to the House race, and hope to keep the political career going.