The Republicans have seemed a bit more indecisive than usual when it comes to the “nuclear option.” Some weeks, their rhetoric is all bravado; other weeks they emphasize compromise. Some weeks, they talk about having votes to spare to pass the change to the filibuster rules; other weeks they’re scrambling to get to 50. Some weeks, the conservative base sounds united behind the tactic; other weeks we learn about significant intra-party fissures.
The back-and-forth vacillation reinforces suspicions that the Senate GOP a) may be bluffing; and b) isn’t sure this is a great idea. Nevertheless, Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum, who’s been advocating on behalf of the “nuclear option” for more than a year, sounds convinced that the showdown is set and Bill Frist won’t back down.
Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), the chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, has reassured conservative activist leaders that Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) is committed to triggering the “nuclear option,” stripping Democrats of the power to filibuster judicial nominees.
Santorum met the leaders Tuesday to dispel growing anxiety among conservatives that Frist was wavering over what some Republicans call the “constitutional” or “Byrd” option — a procedural tactic that would disallow judicial filibusters by a ruling of the Senate chair and a ratifying majority vote. […]
The activist said the message from Santorum was clear: “Man battle stations.” Santorum said that he told conservative leaders, “We have to win” and “we have to have the votes” to confirm the president’s nominees.
That’s fine, but needing the votes and having the votes are two very different things.
I don’t doubt that Frist and the rest of the Senate GOP leadership want to execute the “nuclear option,” but there’s a growing body of evidence that they just might not be able to pull it off.
* The Republican leadership canceled a briefing of Senate staff and activists by Martin Gold, a former Frist aide and master of Senate parliamentary procedure who is advising Republicans on the issue.
* Corporate lobbyists continue to urge members to steer clear of the tactic.
* Frist’s stated desire to “strike a deal” lead many to believe he’s backing away from the change.
* Conservative activists have noticed that there’s not a lot of information coming out of Frist’s office about plans, strategy, and negotiations.
I suspect Frist’s biggest problem right now is getting to 50 votes, but there aren’t a lot of attractive options left for him. As I noted the other day, if he executes the “nuclear option,” he’s brought the Senate to a halt, poisoned political comity in the chamber, and angered his Big Business base. If he doesn’t, he’s angered his religious right base, strengthened the Dems’ hand, and made something of a fool out of himself by making threats on which he can’t deliver.
Stay tuned.