Scrambling for some semblance of progress

A top U.S. military official told Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki yesterday that Americans expect to see real progress in Iraq very soon. Or what? He didn’t say.

The top American military commander for the Middle East has warned Iraq’s prime minister in a closed-door conversation that the Iraqi government needs to make tangible political progress by next month to counter the growing tide of opposition to the war in Congress.

In a Sunday afternoon discussion that mixed gentle coaxing with a sober appraisal of politics in Baghdad and Washington, the commander, Adm. William J. Fallon, told Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki that the Iraqi government should aim to complete a law on the division of oil proceeds by next month.

Iraq’s Shiite dominated-government, Admiral Fallon added in the meeting, has consolidated power and should have the confidence to reach out to its opponents. “You have the power,” Admiral Fallon said. “You should take the initiative.”

Sure, that’d be swell. In fact, there are plenty of things Maliki “should” do that haven’t happened. But what are the consequences of failure?

According to the NYT’s front-page report, Fallon and Maliki spent considerable time discussing what kind of progress would satisfy Congress over the next couple of months. I have a follow up question: does it matter?

The president has already said he doesn’t care what Congress says, believes, or does. He’ll veto funding for the troops, he’ll smear anyone who disagrees with him as terrorist-sympathizing traitors, he’ll defend his policy no matter how tragic its results. Now the administration’s worried about impressing Congress? Quickly?

All the talk from the administration is about speed. Over the weekend, Condi Rice said Iraqis “don’t have the luxury, really, of time.” A couple of weeks ago, Robert Gates said the “clock is ticking.” Yesterday, Fallon apparently emphasized the same points.

First, the rhetoric contradicts the policy. As I noted the other day, Bush’s approach to the war is predicated on the notion that our patience has to be endless. If it’s not, we might leave before the job is done, which would mean, as the White House sees it, the decline of Western civilization. If our patience is limited, we might abandon Iraq, leaving terrorists to fill a power vacuum, creating a haven that will endanger the world. As far as the administration is concerned, if Iraqis are given a finite amount of time, the “suiciders” and “dead-enders” will think we’ll eventually leave, and they’ll “wait us out.”

And yet, all the rhetoric is about pressuring the Maliki government to act quickly anyway, to satisfy domestic political concerns. There’s a disconnect. If ours is an open-ended policy, as the White House insists it is, congressional impatience is irrelevant. There are bigger things at stake, right?

Well, maybe. Bush has the luxury of knowing that Dems don’t have a veto-proof majority, so his policy remains intact. Then what’s with the sudden interest in rushing Iraq to show some results? It seems the most likely explanation is the simplest one: the White House has come to believe that Republicans are this close to bolting and joining the Dems on a major policy shift.

Stay tuned.

It also may be that Bush knows unless there is substantial improvement, the timeline ends 1/20/09, and it ends in failure.

  • Just like Bush, the Republicans in congress are facing political termination in 2008. But many of them seem to think they’d like to stay on for awhile more.

    I think Bush is willing to drag them down with him.

  • Iraq is no longer a nation. The best hope it has is to become a UN protectorate. It’s going to take 500,000 blue helmets for 50 years at least and the oil will have to be split between Iraq and the people of the world.

    The other option is to hope the civil war stays inside those British drawn borders, wait for a strongman to emerge to replace Saddam, and hope for the best.

    The current situation cannot be sustained.

  • For Bush the War on Terror is being waged against Congress and the American People through the media And at the moment, Bush is falling behind on the PR offensive. Bush needs more talking points dammit and he needs Maliki to produce something, anything that will sound good from a presidential podium. Real progress on the ground doesn’t mean anything. Bush just needs more PR ammunition to counter his foes in this nation.

  • Look at what they (we) want. AN OIL LAW! Suprise suprise. This has nothing to do with our patience runnning out, it’s Exxon’s patience that’s running out.

  • You don’t understand.

    “Or what?”

    If they don’t make progress then we go to plan B.

    What is plan B, I hear you ask?

    According to various people in the administration:

    Plan B is to make Plan A work.

    I thought you understood that.

  • They want to see some serious progress, and a good example would be…..passing the oil law which will hand over Iraq’s oil for development by, SURPRISE!! American oil companies. It’d be wrong to say the Iraqi people wouldn’t benefit at all, because oil is so expensive now that there’d be plenty of booty to go around. It would hardly be noticeable the incredible profits Chevron-Texaco and Exxon-Mobil were slurping up, not to mention who had all the real say on setting world prices – which is something the U.S. has sought all along.

    I doubt the Iraqis will be dumb enough to fall for it. After all, they’re not Republicans.

  • Then what’s with the sudden interest in rushing Iraq to show some results? It seems the most likely explanation is the simplest one: the White House has come to believe that Republicans are this close to bolting and joining the Dems on a major policy shift. — CB.

    No. The simplest, and likeliest, explanation is: OIL.
    Adm. William J. Fallon, told Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki that the Iraqi government should aim to complete a law on the division of oil proceeds by next month. Fine. Now what about The parliament today [June 5, 2007] passed a binding resolution that will guarantee lawmakers an opportunity to block the extension of the U.N. mandate under which coalition troops now remain in Iraq when it comes up for renewal in December. Without the cover of the U.N. mandate, the continued presence of coalition troops in Iraq would become, in law as in fact, an armed occupation, at which point it would no longer be politically tenable to support it.

    [L]awmakers reached in Baghdad [..] said that they do in fact plan on blocking the extension of the coalition’s mandate when it comes up for renewal six months from now. How admirable that Admiral Fallon is encouraging the government to use its power and take the initiative.

    ..And the oil?

  • Widely publicized reports tell us Iraq’s oil profits will be equally distributed between the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. The caveat not mentioned is they will share a “percentage” of the profits that amounts to a mere twenty or thirty percent — meaning each will receive 10 % at most with the remaining seventy to eighty percent of the profits will be reaped by the oil companies.

    The push is for the oil companies benefit not the Iraqis. It is going to be pretty difficult to get a contract signed when the unionized oil workers in Iraq are on strike. The workers want to re-negotiate the contract and demand better economic conditions. They do not want their oil privatized. No one could blame them for that. So until the contract is renegotiated there will not be much of anything that happens.

  • Meanwhile, our army is being ground down. I recently found out that my old division, the 25th Infantry Division, was reduced after Vietnam to a rapid reaction force and called a “light” division. It is currently a “full” division of about 18,000 troops, with several units in Iraq. Part of the significance of that is that the 25th (based in Hawaii) has, for more than a decade at least, been the force that was responsible for reacting to crises in the Pacific. Now it’s in Iraq — more evidence that that debacle is sucking our army into a Black Hole.

  • As the “no confidence” vote demonstrates, congressional Republicans can banter loudly about ending this fiasco but they will continue to vote with the president. They are too afraid not to. They have always gone with “my party right or wrong” when it
    comes to Iraq.

    I wonder if he is wanting to redeploy to Iran and wants Iraq settled with an oil agreement before then. Don’t know how it plays in with trying to get Maliki to step up and Bush et al might just be saying what he knows others want to hear. Terrible to totally distrust the administration.

  • If you’re not going to hang the threat of cutting off support to Maliki, what else are you going to use?

    Egg and TP Maliki’s house?

    Have two dozen pizzas sent to his office?

    Prank call him?

    Have his name changed in the government directory to “Prime Minister I. P. Freely”?

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