Proponents of the immigration reform compromise measure working its way through the Senate, as recently as a few days ago, thought they had the momentum. It would be close, but they thought they had the votes to get the Bush-backed bill through the chamber.
The sweeping immigration overhaul endorsed by President Bush crumbled in the Senate on Thursday night, leaving the future of one of the administration’s chief domestic priorities in serious doubt.
After a day of tension and fruitless maneuvering, senators rejected a Democratic call to move toward a final vote on the compromise legislation after Republicans complained that they had not been given enough opportunity to reshape the sprawling bill. Supporters of cutting off debate got only 45 of the 60 votes they needed; 50 senators opposed the cutoff.
“We are finished with this for the time being,” said Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada and the majority leader, as he turned the Senate to work on energy legislation.
It could, of course, come back at some point in the 110th Congress, but if yesterday was any indication, the votes just aren’t there. That’s not going to change in a year.
Ultimately, it wasn’t strictly partisan divisions that killed (or mortally wounded) the bill — as the NYT explained, 38 Republicans, 11 Democrats and one independent voted not to shut off debate; 37 Democrats, 7 Republicans and one independent voted to bring the issue to a head.
As the debate unfolded, I more or less came to believe this was “better than nothing” legislation. The measure had serious flaws, but it was an improvement on the status quo, and given the political environment, it was about as good as it could be.
As for the big picture, let’s look at the winners and losers.
Or, more accurately, the losers.
* President Bush: The president couldn’t rally support from Republicans, a failure which ultimately did the legislation in. The result makes the White House look even weaker and more ineffective than it did, say, last week. In case there was any doubt, Bush’s reservoir of “political capital” is now, officially, empty. Also keep in mind, immigration reform is the one major, sweeping policy area in which the White House and congressional Democratic leaders are at least near the same page. With this legislation falling apart, Bush appears to have lost his only shot at scoring a major legislative victory in the 110th Congress.
* John McCain: The presidential hopeful put his neck on the line to fight for immigration legislation that the GOP base hated. McCain gets the worst of all worlds — he couldn’t lead his own Republican colleagues well enough to get his bill through the Senate, and Republican activists resent him for even trying. In the end, McCain has nothing to show for his efforts except weaker support from those who vote in presidential primaries.
* Conservative critics of the status quo: Most on the right are understandably thrilled with last night’s developments. They fought hard to kill the bill, and by appearances, they succeeded. But they may ultimately regret it. First, a hard-line conservative bill won’t magically replace the legislation they just killed. Second, as Kevin Drum noted, their prospects for the future aren’t encouraging: “[W]hen do they think they’re going to get another crack at this? It’s going to be years, and at this point it looks to me like the political environment in the future is more likely to be more liberal than it is to be more conservative. My guess is that the hardliners aren’t going to get a better deal in 2010 than the one they voted down on Thursday.”
All around, a bad day for Washington.
